Nanobody Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 If it does hold I have an initial target of 7200 on the DOW and 775-780 on the SPX at which point I would expect a bounce. ?These numbers are derived from P&F chart theory. Now, any comments anyone? NatuRal squares are at 7225 and 784 Regards, Nano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Sorry if my previous post sounded.................uhhhhhhh...........cranky No offense to anyone You took the words right out of my mouth. Lets talk about the markets and not each other and "nah, nah, nah I told ya so". Did anyone take a look at the internals per BPIs, McClellan Summation, etc.? we actually went down today. The trend is your friend. The true trend is still down. I gave back 3% today, still up 26% since 1/23. No stops hit, I stay in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Noticed a very interesting count on one of the SI boards. A leading diagonal to form wave 1 of 3. Dr. Evil would love this. 5-3-5-3-5 pattern which I have seen before but is unusual although well described. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[r,a]gholyyay[d15][p][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14!ld20][j9328547,y]&listNum=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 [Did anyone take a look at the internals per BPIs, McClellan Summation, etc.? we actually went down today. They did not alter course. ?sign of weak correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 [Did anyone take a look at the internals per BPIs, McClellan Summation, etc.? we actually went down today. They did not alter course. ?sign of weak correction they actually all went DOWN today. Like Brian said, anyone who thinks this is a bottom worth going long better be ready to get out quickly. It will most likely turn around and bite you in the ass. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Found this interesting, now if only those economic figures were truthful I consider this slightly good news. (no, I don't think this is going to impact the current market move) Economy Turning the Corner? By Matt Essen; Schaeffer Research "... Below, I have listed many of the numbers released monthly on the economy. It compares the most recently reported figures to what the market was expecting and to the average of the previous six-month figures. As you can see, nearly every number bested expectations. Additionally, every report either matched or surpassed the six-month average. Please note that the six-month average is comprised of revised figures where appropriate..." Read More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 I'd go over and read intraday/pm but I don't have a strong stomach and probably couldn't bear the bloodletting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Agreed, Ned, Pile, wndy et al. As Doc says, shorts are their own worst enema (albeit in a different context). I've said this before, but I'll restate it here: The difficulty with trading is that the market moves at a different speed than your mind does. The most efficient path between two points is a straight line, and that's the route your mind naturally takes. The market doesn't. Ever been here? ---> A bear looks at a chart and says, "XYZ stock is trading at 50, when it's really only worth 10. I'mma short this POS." He shorts it, and XYZ moves down to 45... "I knew it! Okay! Here it comes! Gonna fall to 10 aaany second now!" And as if on cue, almost like magic -- XYZ gets short-squeezed up to 55. And then comes the moral outrage: "I don't get it! Who's buying this crap! Who's that dumb? Are there gangs of large-block buyers sitting on fly-infested porches somewhere, strumming bangos and sucking applesauce out of straws while entering in limit orders way over ask?!? WTF!!!" Guess what? That's the game -- "rightness" be damned. You can be right at the wrong time and still go broke. R.N. Elliot's whole point w/ Elliot wave is that the market is NOT an efficient mechanism. If it were, the market wouldn't have gotten to this over-blown state to begin with. Always remember that the market virtually never moves at the speed your mind thinks it should. This is because your mind is vastly more efficient. Don't blame your fellow stoolies for this. Don't insinuate that they're raging cretins when they suggest the market may go up at times, because it can and will. Simply do your best to make an informed decision on your own trades, and offer your views when you have something to share. Disagreements are fine. Just don't kill the messengers. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanobody Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 BIG Picture Preamble (A.K.A. Why Pop-o-phobia is justified) "From the intraday peak at 1552.87 on 24MAR00 to the intraday trough at 768.63 on 10OCT02 the market fell 784.24 points or 50.5%. Despite this large net decline over 637 sessions, only 346 (54%) were Down days (net decline from Close to Close) and 291 (46%) were actually Up days. Moreover, on a Closing basis the average daily loss of 13.0 points was identical to the average daily gain of 13.0 points -- representing average daily movements of -1.1% or +1.1%, respectively. Conceptually, this astonishing equality of bullish and bearish opportunity is a manifestation of the neutrality of market energy. That is, on average the gains from playing long or short on a Daily basis are the same -- even during a large and persistent downtrend." Source: Dynamic Balance Point ? The nano-view ? moral of this story is: pick your timeframe and STICK TO IT! Regards, Nano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Moreover, on a Closing basis the average daily loss of 13.0 points was identical to the average daily gain of 13.0 points ?-- ?representing average daily movements of -1.1% or +1.1%, respectively. Conceptually, this astonishing equality of bullish and bearish opportunity is a manifestation of the neutrality of market energy. ?That is, on average the gains from playing long or short on a Daily basis are the same ?-- ?even during a large and persistent downtrend. That's amazing. No wonder everyone's frustrated half the time (literally). There is some really interesting analysis at that link. He talks about the next decline being the whopper and final decline, which jives with my own views (although the way we get there is different, he was early on his timing). That's one of the reasons I think my a-b-c-d-e ( with us currently in e of ( b ) of C) may have validity (chart posted in LOB). The relative length and up/down motion of the triangle (or flat) will have the bears scared to short when e ends. Look at everybody now! If this rally carries 40-50 points higher on the SPX, I think you'll see some bear capitulation. Meanwhile, all the buyers have been sucked in by the same up/down motion. Then the way is clear for a nasty decline, with lessened short-seller support to prematurely rescue the decline. 'twill be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 The BARE nearly got killed (banned) the UDDER day FUR UDDERing what was perceived ass heresy. Then he got REINCARNATED. Or resurrected, in finest LAZARUS-like fASShion from the (brain? LMAZZOFF) dead. He's still trying to figger out if it wuz good or BAAaaaaddd KARMA!!! Supplysider, my sentimentz EGGzactly! w re to Arch C: HRFF takes Arch's hotline. InsoFUR as HRFF is concerned Arch hass SNOT had the best time of it so FUR this year, yet, THIS weekend, somehow, FUR some reason he can't quite identify, The BARE GUESSES Arch is going to be vindicated. And he's placed a BIG bet on that prospect. At this hour, it's too late to do anything about it, now. His SPY short is set at a STOP (mercifully SNOT a LIMIT) at 84.3 (It hit 84.33 in the after burner hours) Remember, gentlemen (HRFF uses that nomenclature GUARDEDLY! LOL) it'z a FULL MOON or damned close TO IT out there, so don'tchewpayNOtension to today's pricing action, wot? Something's aPAW. The Administration is making sinister noises about latent, yet incipient threats. It needs, badly, a pretext to go to war sans the 'smoking gun' to move the growing legions of Doubting TomASSES ? off the fence. THINK upon THAT then try, quickly, to FURgedaboudid. Enjoy these fleeting hours of relative tranquility whilst you can. And "Bring FURth men-children only!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 All interesting comments that I'm skimming over. I appreciate Windy's perspective. Too many still underestimate the power of these squeezes. I must develop a new profti taking strategy myself for days like Tuesday when we have sold off continuously for sometime. The big mistake is getting overconfident and expecting the huge waterfall just around the corner. Wave 3 may or may not come, no matter. How does one manage their money in the meantime is what is key. Someone mentioned no problem if we take out 25 on the qqq than he's out of the trade. Sorry but in my book by that time you have either lost alot of money or surrendered alot of profits and that is simply unacceptable, better to get a job at In and Out Burger. Maybe those people are excellent poker players or something but I don't understand that kind of reasoning. Always take profits from the middle of the trade, never get greedy, never look for the homerun waterfall and just collect money over time. Who knows? After 3 years I still have major reservations about most TA, its too often so contradictory and subjective that in most cases it simply feels like gambling if you take on large positions. I know that this is just a violent bear short squeeze but no technician can tell me with reasonable certainty when it ends and in the meantime how about all the missed profits from potential longs God forbid? Is there reasonable certainty in forecasting bounces? All day Wednesday I was stopped out of small dip buying positions that I was using to hedge my shorts. After 3 times I just gave up. Then the market took off for 10 hours right afterwards. Ultimately the only professional thing to do is to use sophisticated hedging strategies and surrender the rest but I fear that is beyond me. This constant needing to know market direction is not only excessively stressful, its also impossible in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 One other thing. I still say this whole squeeze is a manifestation of Options Racketeering and it began precisely in the time window out from OE. I think its 80% that a market that has sold off into this time window will then reverse suddenly and squeeze, I have seen this so often. Unfortunately I got emotional and also listened to others who said that this trend wouldn't bear fruit this time. In accordance with this I think we spike into Wednesday. That then is the time to short again. I doubt very seriously that anything happens this weekend. Please. Everyone is looking,watching waiting and shaking in fear and calling the moon cycle. One thing I have learned. When everyone on the board and in the media is gaming the same phenomena, it don't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Well, hardly "everyone" is gaming this. And the media sure ain't. Where's your evidence of THAT? Look, what BIG $ is going to BUY with this war px hanging over things. It's been driving things since January and will continue to do so. It's clear Bush is going to war REGARDLESS of what the rest of the world says, thinks or does, and the refusal of the UN to give him a SECOND resolution WON'T MATTER. Think there's going to be a big, lASSting rally in THIS environment??? Think guys who run billions are going to chance THAT? THINK AGAIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 BEARS WHO WANT TO BE BULLS Pile and B4 abideth in true faith with the bear. WINDY WAVERETH LIKE THE WIND?? Methinks thE BEAR RALLY IS WELL AND TRULEY OVERETH AND THE BIG down has abideth in the house of the bear for the past four weeksies. If here is to be a rally it must be a rather shorteth one as the big down is a rather inhospitable atmoshere for such rallies - sought of like a mormon at a hells angels rally or a virginal intern at the Clinton white house.. Nice article over at the street by Jon Markman: "Bombs wont liberate market from the bears" - if you want to ride a rally buy the total crap stocks!! Like Mirant, Lucent, Gateway, Health South - the real Stool stocks. Stool floats on the false hopes and bear squeezes of a bear market rally. If you have a gambling streak and wish to play a war rally as a speculative event, rather than a major reversal event, then consider my old standby: Take positions in the lowest-priced, cheapest, worst-performing, most heavily shorted stocks in the S&P 500 index. If the market goes up 20%, these will probably go up 50% or more as fund managers and others "equitize" their cash by buying the index. Stocks with the lowest prices generally advance the most in these circumstances. Through Feb. 10, the top 10 fitting the criteria are listed in the table below. Possible War-Rally Plays Company (Symbol) 2/10 price Short ratio % Chg 1 Yr Price/sales Mirant (MIR) $1.62 5 -83.7 0.03 Lucent Technologies (LU) 1.64 8 -72.8 0.55 Avaya (AV) 2.22 12 -65.1 0.16 Gateway (GTW) 2.30 9 -58.5 0.18 Calpine (CPN) 2.84 14 -66.2 0.14 Williams (WMB) 2.92 5 -80.6 0.17 AES Corp. (AES) 2.99 10 -70.1 0.18 AMR Corp. (AMR) 3.00 6 -87.3 0.03 Solectron(SLR) 3.36 7 -64.7 0.23 HealthSouth (HRC) 3.55 4 -68.4 0.31 Note the words "heavilly shorted" - obviously a hoped for short squeeze will add to trading profits! Interestingly the best short strategy according to Pile is to short crap too!! Stool up and stool down - its a stool world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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