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Valentine's Day Ultimatum


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Slinger

 

 

Tried it already. Still doesn't work. I have this problem with 60 minute charts using Stockcharts. Oh well. But what is important is the repetitiveness of the pattern on the smaller and larger time scales. Makes it all the more significant.

 

Here is the the $USD. Almost end of the 4th wave consolidation prior to the 5th down wave in a giant 3rd or C wave

 

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$usd,uu[l,a]dbclyyay[dd][p][vc60][iut][j10293644,y].gif

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Say what you will about Cramer and his control of Realmoney.com, but with Fleck and Rev Shark, it's almost worth it right there. Fleck I think is invaluable with the overall picture, but not as good with timing, whereas RevShark has been right on with timing lately. Here's his last post after today's rally:

We have had a pretty good bounce now since the move began late yesterday. Is it significant? Nope, nada, nugatory. We have a market that has been downtrending for weeks, fairly high levels of anxiety and Dover Sole conditions. A bounce to relieve the pressure is not an unexpected event. Mr. Market can't let those bears get too content. Volume is light, and we have not cracked the recent downtrend channels yet, so it certainly is premature to get excited about this being "the" turn...

I believe that there continue to be too many uncertainties for the market to make a bottom at this point. I'll be happy to go long if we break the recent downtrend with some decent volume, but I have yet to see any buying anxiety.

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GTNWORSE:

 

You are correct. The MACD crossover is the last line.

 

If it crosses, I'm going long also.

 

If the rest of the guys here want to take the pain, I'll be glad to hear them scream.

 

If we head lower on Tuesday, I'll hold what I have. But right now, the odds seem slim for an immediate selloff.

 

Did you see MSFT the last 2 minutes? It virtually exploded .50 points on gigantic volume.

msft has done the same thing for 3 weeks..50 cent ramp into the close.every damn day except 1.it's the only pos that can move the dow,s&p and nascrap all at the same time.Of course it's gonna get the volume and the attention.

 

they ran out of options,they must buy what will ramp the indicies with the least money possible.They are broke and need shorts to cover or they have had it.

 

btw,I appreciate everyone's opinion no matter what it is,I'm here to learn too.but I still believe this "rally"is the biggest joke of all of them so far.

 

let's face it,dec 1st everyone was practically cryin in here,same with mid jan.

 

we are near devistating collapse in the near future,everyone is long and 90% of shorts covered.not much left to hold it together but another move up would not suprise me.

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Hyper, I'm beginning to think your 15 to 20 month time frame might be optimistic. There's something palpable afoot. You can almost taste it. Noticed it in a lot of people today. It's even evident right here in cool clam Stoolville. Doc tossing people, lots of jabs and barbs being traded, general mayham.

From the looks of this thread we have split into two camps. I will give no opinion as to which one is right, and thankfully I don't have to play. But if I'm reading this right it's a highly polarized situation and it could lead to whomever is wrong in getting severly wounded. How many more innocent bears must die? (cue Sally Struthers) :lol:

 

It's been a stressful week all around. Whatever is going to happen has started in ernest on Main Street. Hope none of you get caught with all your money in digital form.

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Hey Hypertiger:

 

"Wild Cornered Animal?"

 

Sounds like me. I'm a Wild Cornered Animal during these Hell Squeezes.

 

Why do the dippers always have the fun?

 

Why are the 500 point moves in 10 trading hours always to the upside and never to the downside?

 

Why are downside gaps always filled?

 

Why is this crappy market still bouncing hysterically after 35 months?

 

Your "Wild Cornered Animal" stage is a long way off.....

 

Not until the dippers are cornered.

 

Cornered for good, with no "jamjob" escape hatch that always happens to show up.

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Intraday trading board is fun but may be too emotional over there. The Bears are so entrenched that no one saw this coming yesterday. Not good, too committed to one side. All this Arch Crawford talk in the morning and soothsaying. I think its mostly bogus and Crawford will get blasted right out of his positions at open on ...

Who knows. I think BAREister is correct in saying that before this bear market is over, it will have made a mockery of everyone -- technicians as well as fundies. If any kind of analysis was always useful, everyone would be using it, which in turn would diminish its effectiveness. Those who put their faith absolutely in indicators are just setting themselves up for a fall. No indicator guarantees the future. I cringe everytime I hear a Stoolie say, "Don't worry about this rally. We're in wave X of Y, which means we're safe." No, we're not necessarily safe. Indicators can help to manage risk. But, they're not gospel. They're not some immutable law of the universe.

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Hi Stoolies,

 

As my first post I would like to add my view to what seems to be a critical juncture in the markets.

 

I am a follower of Elliott - but agree with Simple Guy that in real time counts can be ambiguous and the pros tend to confuse the issue. Simple is best.

 

My preference is the perfect symmetry of trading days that develop into significant turn dates, and the Fibonacci relationship to those dates.

 

I can see where there have been two previous patterns with regards to cycles since the all time high of the S&P that match the current downturn we are now experiencing. The 1st was the May-September 2001 decline, the second was the March-July 2002 collapse. Both culminated in the bottoming of 10,20,40 and 80 week cycles. Each began at the crest of the second-last 10 week cycle.

 

Before the first SIGNIFICANT bounce, there were 34 trading days in the 2001 move (fibonacci) and 35 trading days in 2002 (fibonacci +1). In this decline there have been 29 to date. 34 days would take us to approx 20th February - a date that has a large number of Fib dates surrounding it that extend back to 2000. It is also a Bradley date I believe. This is then followed by a 8 - 13 day rally (also fibonacci) and then followed by what I believe if the true 3rd of a 3rd wave - a move that erodes some 300 points off the S&P.

 

There will NOT be a retest of the January highs in this period - not even close. The downward cycles are too intense - but I'm sure Doc would have a greater perspective of those.

 

I hope my first post hasn't rambled too much - I know brevity is valued in these forums.

 

TroyB.

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Tuesday thru Thursday in the coming week is a BIG FIB turn date-all the wavers no it-Arch knows it and anyone who can do FIB math knows it-we rallied today sooo rallying into the window means a turn down-can it invert-yes it can-but fib dates usually don't. No guarantees in life or the markets but the evidence is still on the Bear side. Someone remarked the board is cranky-cranky comes only from losing money use stops they work, protect profit, calm nerves and are free. I'll trade up or down don't care which but this is a Bear market and will be for a long time show me a tradeable rally I'll trade it but that time is past-prediction 875 SPX won't be seen again for at least 7 to 10 years. Trade Safe!

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Hey, Troy. Very nice first post. As you probably know, tonight is not typical of this board. All the girls are a little PMS thonight, it seems.

 

Yes, I agree we are headed down, all things considered. Probably way, way down. But the anticipation is nerve wracking and can be hazardous to your wealth if not properly managed.

 

Yes, it helps to have roadmaps like Doc's cycles, E-wave (sensibly applied), Fibos, etc. to keep from getting entirely lost along the winding road in the sometimes dense fog.

 

Even the best roadmap can't help with those damn unexpected detours thrown up without warning.

 

Sometimes it's best just to pull over and take a little snooze.

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I believe Larry T said that we won't live long enough to see that level again. :grin:

 

Another 2-3% up would not surprise me but major crapper-ville afterwards as the IT trend is still confirmed hard down, said indicators haven't budged but have deteriorated even more so today. BPIs and McClellan actually went DOWN today. Not good for bully.

 

This is a typical wave 3 "shake-out fake-out" !!!

 

Bwhahahahaha, bwhahahahaha, bwhahahahaha !!!

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Yeah Yobob, pretty funny. I got tossed a couple of weeks ago. Was a threat to health of the website. Don't forget, "some members are more valuable than others".

 

Nothing changes, Brian4 never loses, GTN never actually makes a trade, and Windy is honest and actually cares about the guys who read his column.

 

Be careful SimpleGuy, you've become a guru around here. The market will eventually make a fool of you. You've been right on for awhile, but that is bound to change.

 

Doesn't anyone want to blame "shrub" for the rally today?

 

HAVE FUN IN THE ASYLUM!!!! :o

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Tuesday thru Thursday in the coming week is a BIG FIB turn date-all the wavers no it-Arch knows it and anyone who can do FIB math knows it-we rallied today sooo rallying into the window means a turn down-can it invert-yes it can-but fib dates usually don't. No guarantees in life or the markets but the evidence is still on the Bear side. Someone remarked the board is cranky-cranky comes only from losing money use stops they work, protect profit, calm nerves and are free. I'll trade up or down don't care which but this is a Bear market and will be for a long time show me a tradeable rally I'll trade it but that time is past-prediction 875 SPX won't be seen again for at least 7 to 10 years. Trade Safe!

Couldn't have said it better myself. Long the miners, select oil/gas plays short SPX, XCI, SOX, and stocks!!!! Will cover if and when the indicators show the downtrend is broken. I believe we will see 600 SPX before 875-900. As b4 says - Trade safe.

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