mjkst27 Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 In that Elliott is mostly based on fibs, I'd say applying Elliott Wave to the VXN is just as relevant as any other application. Fibs appear throughout nature, I'm willing to include the VXN. Call me a hoper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Wreckedhim, "caca" Great analogy. You have to zoom in and out (timewise) to do proper analysis of the situation too. BTW, has anyone even bothered to notice that the longer term indicators (those beyond the hourly/nano-second timeframe) are still slamming lower and actually fell more on Friday? Take your nose off the monitor, step back, take a big deep breath and look at the big pic as SG would say. My fine collection of used toilet paper barely budged yesterday. Nothing stopped out. :grin: "Precise timing can humble the best of market technicians; stay with the primary trends!" - Mike Hartman, Financial Sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 This guy (trending123) called this 'rally' to the tee (off by 10 points) on nasty. He has the short-term high at resistance that we fought a week to get through (as Wrecked Him's charts show as well). As PD has been saying, his indicators are still pointing down, but expects a rally follow through on Tuesday to the short term resistance illustrated on the charts. Also states that volume was too low to consider this the war rally. It's nothing more than a technical bounce. Now, with that said, I tend to think that most rallies we've seen start out as a technical bounce so we disregard them at first, so I'm a little cautious in how I draw conclusions. This time however I believe is going to be limited to a technical blow-off because of the overhead resistance level that we took a week to form. It should be strong resistance to a run-away rally. I think the 'war' rally, if it happens before the intermediate lows are hit, will start from lower lows within the 'free drop' zone where little support or resistance is present. That's just a gut feeling. I posted his Wednesday chart on M2M then since it did make a convincing case for a technical rally (to see that chart, hit the Wednesday button on his site). He was telling folks then that it could break ether way with a big move but most likely it would break upwards, unless you're playing it long. Gotta love this investing stuff. Go to the chart at the link below to see the rest of it with more indicators and additional comments. The upload file size limit here doesn't allow me to show the whole chart. SOURCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Wreckedhim, "caca" I have 2 small children. I am surrounded by "caca". Sometimes at work I will come into contact with caca. I have specialty certification in caca. One day I hope to take a sabbatical and learn even more about caca. But for now I will have to make doo doo with the caca I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 WH, I was in that "caca" situation a few years ago. My two kids are now 7 & 8. "caca" was all over the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 HRFF isn't sure that the market is "telling us" ANYTHING at this point, save that it's schizoid, or, perhaps that it isn't quite willing to tank, just yet and may be content with the trading DErangeD at lower levels The BARE hASS been yapping about FUR some time, now. BARE's already seen a lot of chatter about 835-843 being overhead resistance to this move and that this could be an EWave "flat", etc. HRFF certainly doesn't think the mkt is saying there will be "NO" war in Iraq. We'd be above 950 now if that were the case. When units deployed in the ME get orders to return home in numbers HRFF will possibly conclude there is NO war in Iraq, after they arrive here, sans heavy casualties, FURst. Lettuce wait until after the open on Tuesday to pASS judgment on Mr CrawFURd, shall we? BARE certainly doesn't think the market is announcing a new "killer app" in tech land. FURther even if one exists, it almost certainly won't matter the way they hope or the way it did in the pASSt, given the contraction in the economy, GLOBALLY. Inger is wrong. Tech will not prove our savior/salvation or the predicate FUR our economic resurrection/extrication FURom the tar pit into which we are descending, monthly. The bubble has much FURther to go in unwinding and its salutary lesson is that we erred spectacularly in the MISSallocation ? of resources we put into tech in general and telecom in particular. (Witness the hindsight of Mr Turner in that regard when interviewed by Tom Brokenjaw the UDDER night) Now there are legions of unemployed who pinned their career hopes to the tech sector, and their ranks are swelling, SNOT contracting. Someone put up a list of 'indicators' re the economy, noting that most beat "expectations". What they don't say is how FUR down those expectations are lowered. It is, thereFUR ? to this observer, meaningless to say expectations were met or exceeded and thereFUR there might be an improvement. They've been ramping gaming expectations FUR years now and FUR years our situation has worsened, inexorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Exactly DF, a pop in an environment where more (all) cycles are pushing down harder than before so rally should be limited (smaller than Jan rally). A brief short-covering pop against a deeply intact downtrend. Playing it would be like playing the declines in late Oct/early Nov. You'll get smoked if you are not quick. As you can tell I don't play the wiggles. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 As you can tell I don't play the wiggles. ?:wink2: Pile I do play the wiggles (which have nothing to do with my long term positions) and do quite well playing them. However, my wiggle indicator did not go off this time. Not even close. I did get a positive wiggle sign intraday on Thursday (good for the day and sometimes the next-but I never play them) but in order to be a real wiggle it has to hold until the close and it did not. I do miss some of the wiggles but the discipline is to follow the indicator which is successful more often than not. And if I do miss one, I move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Elliott is mostly based on fibs I think you've inadvertently nailed it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 You all know that like WRH I am an E waver. But just as e waves reflect the mass emotions of the herd-other tools do as well one of which is Financial Astrology-for those of you who don't have access to Arch go to: www.mmacycles.com and click on weekly preview. That will tell you why Arch has the wind up as does Merriman-the week to come could well be as Arch describes it "historical" and also hysterical! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Oh.. .yeah... one other comment 1470 to 1260 wave 1 1260 to 1341 wave 2 1340 to 1002... 161.8% of wave 1.... and end of wave 3 (with 4 and 5 to come) Makes alot of sense now doesnt it kids? 1002 is the October lows area.... It would also have my QQQ target in the low 20.xx range come into play... Its crystal clear to me, dont lose your head...... Just a stupid question- since the make-up of the nasquack 100 has been changed and now has less weighting in tecrap, is it still valid that the retrace levels would be valid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanevano Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 there is a guy named tlochner on the Raging Bull QQQ board who is showing a buy signal on some T/A system called ASC.....does anyone know if this system is reliable at all? http://www.csnetserver.com/qqq/tlochner/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Brian4, thanks for your comments here on a regular basis. And I agree with you, options are a wonderful instrument to make money with, as long as you understand them and respect the markets. My investment portfolio is 100% short using a combinations of LEAPS puts on the DJIA and SPX, and Rydex RYVNX and RYTPX. With those instruments I can ride out a pop like this one without a problem since I'm playing the longer cycles. The remainder of my portfolio is in options, various puts as on the QQQ and a few select equities. I find those to be the most profitable and the most work to manage risk, and technical pops like we're seeing makes sticking with a game plan imperative in order to make a profit. I am riding this rally losing money on paper, but most of those options are April or better, and if this rally breaks overhead resistance coming up, I'll bite the bullet and take a loss. Point is, I was well aware of the possibility of a pop up like we're seeing now as I posted a chart here showing just that potential on Wednesday. At that time, I considered my positions and the chance of, and the potential magnitude of, a rally and decided to hold tight. Due to the nature of options, I find that if you enter and exit positions for very short term moves you're likely to make your broker wealthy and have little to show for all the work since re-entry is the problem. A move of .05 in the wrong direction and you're out 5-10%. The same move of .05 in the right direction and you're up by maybe 3% due to brokerage fees. Every time you buy in, you have little time to bail and preserve capital, so, unlike selling short, you have to have a solid entry point to get in and you have to choose a dynamic and liquid option to play. B4, your comments are appreciated on this subject I took profits on 1/3 of my options on Thursday - now I wish I sold all. At that time, my desire to capture a large break downward out weighted the cost of a pop. Again, from my own analysis, I believe I have enough time value (before parabolic decay sets in) to ride out a pop. So, the markets didn't go the way I wanted, but I'm not out of the game either. Key now is not to panic and watch for events that may discredit my targets and 'max-pain' limits. After a couple more years, I hope to reach the refined level of risk management employed by B4, but that's still down the road for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Classic Blowoff top is my call... might continue on the open on Tuesday... Maria's orgasm on the open will be the tipoff... I heard NYSE is calling in extra janitors for Tuesday... Seems to me the last time we went through this sort of turmoil on the board was Thanksgiving.... Has all the "MARK"ings... Our thread monitor crapitulated ahead of the holiday and on Monday morning after the long holiday weekend, Maria came on the open, and the Dow spiked over 9000, just when it looked like we were off to the races, Whammmm!! That was 12/2, the last top... Might be early for this call, but I suspect we'll go over 8000 after this 3 day holiday and then Blammo, again... Ask yourself this: What's really changed since Thanksgiving? The fundamentals don't support this rally ... We still don't have bombs dropping, and the uncertainty that has gripped the World continues... Oh, yes, there's been one change... Now instead of just Iraq, we have N. Korea to worry about. I sure get a kick out of all this wretching though... Tuesday is another top boyz n girlz... be ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 FM, you took the words right out of my mouth. Tanks for saving me the keystrokes! (BTW, U.S. typically waits for new moons to attack when its darkest...next new moon March 3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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