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aussiebear

World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Fiendish fidgeting

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Volatility continues for the early openers: Kiwis +0.7%, Aussies +0.2%, Nikkers +0.4%, Sth Korea closed.

Little movement in most Aussie sectors: Utilities +1.4% down to Gold -0.7%.
 

 

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All Ords closed barely in the green, +0.1% and in the sectors, Utilities +1.3%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9% down to Gold -0.8%.

Most of Asia closed for New Year celebrations: India +0.1% and Nikkers +0.6%.

 

 

On to UK/Europe:

 

 

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Gold Mines Resistance - Professional Edition http://wp.me/p2r1d8-OsF

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Initial Unemployment Claims Chart In Danger Zone http://wp.me/p2r1d8-OsO

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Pending Home Sales Chart - Housing Inflation Despite Weak Sales As Inventories Stay Tight http://wp.me/p2r1d8-OsW

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$spx 2 day cycle projection 1798-99.

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Now I have to figure out why the cash did not come out of the reverse repos. Outstanding rose to $102 B today. 

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They're nervous in Port Jervis. 

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Excess Cash Powers Treasury Rally - Professional Edition http://wp.me/p2r1d8-OtL

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Excess Cash Powers Treasury Rally - Professional Edition http://wp.me/p2r1d8-OtL

 

Doc from 2009 to 2012 stocks and bonds both moved together catching all the liquid.  We broke this correlation back last year bonds corrected while stocks went near parabolic.  Now we are getting a counter move.  Are we at a point where the amount of actual dollahs it takes to move these markets is at a point where only one flavor of the day gets the love?  

Could the top be in for stocks or do we get one last blow me off where the NasCrack makes a run at 5000 for a very brief moment before the liquid equation turns south in May?  If I were to "guess" based on years of watching this clown show is that we continue to correct in the stock market maybe get to the 10% range at which point the bond counter run will end and all liquid will flood the stock market for a massive blow off.

But then again is there simply too much resistance now built up in the stock market (way too many longs holding to dump on rallies kind of the opposite to the buy the dip mania the past 5 years) which will absorb the excess liquid.  If this is the case then the markets will not hold the line at 10% and we see 20% or more of a drop in order to balance the entire ponzi-stock system.  

How is everyone aligned?  Me is very light for now I have only the VIX long, no stocks, no bonds, no gold/silver.  I would like to buy SLV if/when the price of physical gets near $16 range (may never see this).  I will add to VIX near 15 if this happens.  I will go long TMV near 55 range.  

So some history me has been short the market since 2 years into the rally off of 2009 lows which means LOTS o' financial pain,  Through a combination of Doc;s work and my own experience I was able to trade at key moments in and out to now after 3 years turn a profit despite being short the entire time.  Profits are very small now and can go negative in a very short time so I am light right now.  I would NEVER recommend my style to anyone as I went against the FED and liquidity.  Simply following the FED and liquidity would have been much more profitable.

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