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Elliott Wave Convergence

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No bubble looking equity activity here ehhh Janet?


Last time I saw some of this was 2000 but they were Wave 3's. Doubt this will develop a larger degree

4 and 5.  If it does we just saw Wave 1 of the start of a bull market that will make the last one look puny.


Maximo 261.8 extension of Wave A!


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GOLD:  Wave 3 held support here at the convergent FIBO retracement levels from major swings in the big move up (which was actually corrective in structure just like what we are seeing in the equity markets now) and doomed to severe retracement.  We really have to watch this for a large triangle here and final Wave 5 down to the next level where there is even more support.  Wave 2 way up there was an expanded flat, triangles can NEVER be wave 2's, and  Wave 4's and B's are  the most common place for them.  Now in this unfolding correction the first two waves fit the picture ( both 3-wave structures). This third wave we are in now should not go much higher here if we have the triangle forming.  We cannot feel secure of a different count and view until it fully retraces that last move down. Unfortunately I must favor the further decline scenario as being more likely due to EW rule of alternation, you cannot have two corrective waves of the same structure in an impulse or in other words another standard FLAT.  Verry likely it will be a descending triangle here leading to one more decline.

But there is still hope this could morph into big move back up, should soon become apparent.

I will be paying a lot of attention to the next week or two of it reaction as it climbs into this critical area which I have  highlighted on prior shorter term chart.


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Commodities look to have finally put in a significant bottom.  Big 5 WD  Impulse Down then A up to .5 FIBO  then into a long grinding and channeling as it should B wave down into an Expanded Flat ( Wave B exceeds start of Wave A) completing as is often the case with a diagonal AND finally a C-Wave up.  It will be very telling how far this C-Wave carries up and then its first reaction/retracement to better guage if truly any meaningful recovery in commodities is on the horizon.


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Time to switch gears in dollar / yen trade.  This was a lot of fun riding up, easy money and whole time I just couldn't believe the whole thing was trumpeted so everybody could get in but perhaps things now have got a little overdone???

Emotion creates beauty expressed within the fractal universe and interpreted with Elliott Wave.

Here we have another textbook EW example.

First wave up and complex  wave 2 correction ending in a diagonal leads to an IMMENSE wave 3 impulse, absolutely magnificent 4th wave triangle and the thrust or Wave 5 up.  Folks we are now on our way down with impulsive wave 1 finished and now climbing back up in corrective Wave 2 about ready to break out of its B-wave triangle ( last leg (C-wave) of zig-zag to retrace up to 103-104 area.  Could take a brief swing trade long again for this move but when its done the best trade will be a great short set up to go back minimally  to the BIG wave 4 triangles projected apex it may just keep falling back into the impulse zone but it should be a good move.

You and use etf's YCL to go long  AND  YCS to go short.


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As you know Ive been watching the biotechs intensely lately and I will eat my right T  if this isn't the top today! 

Larger Terminal Diagonal has its 5 waves and today this 5th wave within it just formed a terminal diagonal right where my last cluster of FIBO projections are.

We could blow out of here with one last thrust and extension but I highly doubt it which means I probably will be wrong.

Would be so cool if I daytraded the last move up in the Bios (ILMN)

I am drooling at the money to made once there is technical confirmation this is going to bomb so

fast and it will be nuclear.



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Here are the Transports... I know there is not been a Dow Theory Non-Confirmation but I follow EW which helps spot changes of trend much faster than anything I know.

This Feb structure is definitely corrective with an A-B-C countertrend move.   Wave A and Wave C have 5 waves and are quick and equal.  Wave B was a 3-wave itself with an extended very choppy B wave within.

We have the C -wave ending on the .76 FIBO short of the top in Dec so Wave 1 is intact not fully retraced. Wave 1 down is absolutely IMPULSIVE and STRONG ( huge bars bigger than any seen in the rally to Dec highs) This is a simple Gann observation when you see a sharp downtrend look at the bars compared to the uptrend that preceeded it.  But EW tells us so much more. Anyway I marked in red the support areas that will sequencially confirm we are now entering wave 3 down.


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Another reason Hanky is calling a top in Biotechs!


AMGN the biggest and badest Biotech has just completed an EW Extended Wave 1 Terminal Impulse and it is a beauty!


On the monthly:

This latest 2 1/2 year mega rally is a phony "elongated" zig-zag that covered same price as the time period from

1990-2000 (Large Degree Wave A) !! 

Notice wave b of this current large degree Wave C up is a triangle, why is this NOT a wave 2 of a new bull market because wave 2's absolutely can NOT be  triangles!

The Fibo projections are of big Wave A (ended at 100%) and little Wave a (we ended at 261.8%) 



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Here is a more detailed EW explaination of AMGN.

I am now looking for first ST confirmation of a top such as candle reversal on daily to begin positioning short. 

It could go a bit higher, FIB projections are close but not always  perfect. Looking at many biotechs in ST timeframes and it sure looks like they are done.


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