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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Weekend whimsy


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Wow Stoolies, I just realized that in a couple of weeks I’ll be starting my 10th year on this board!

 

I haven’t posted much, but I read the board regularly, and appreciate all the hard work Doc has done to build and maintain a place where like-minded people can hang out.

 

It’s also been a year since I uploaded my first app. To celebrate these two events, and with Doc’s blessing, I’m offering a free download of one of my apps to every WSE subscriber or Stoolie with more than 1000 posts.

 

The apps cover my favorite TA tools: Hurst, Fibonacci, and Trend.

 

Make your choice and let me know which one you would like to download.

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Some funny stuff happening tonight..

 

One of my boarders, who's been living here for some time, is a clean living, non drinking gym junkie, very fussy about healthy food. The other boarder, who recently moved in, is dead opposite, smokes, drinks, a few teeth missing, a bit rough around the edges... Well they're both out on the verandah, stereo on mega blast, the bottle of rum is disappearing fast, along with the pizza.. Oh dear, reminds me of that young bloke in "Paint Your Wagon" who was corrupted.. :rolleyes:

 

Tomorrow is another day.. :ninja:

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Wow Stoolies, I just realized that in a couple of weeks I’ll be starting my 10th year on this board!

 

I haven’t posted much, but I read the board regularly, and appreciate all the hard work Doc has done to build and maintain a place where like-minded people can hang out.

 

It’s also been a year since I uploaded my first app. To celebrate these two events, and with Doc’s blessing, I’m offering a free download of one of my apps to every WSE subscriber or Stoolie with more than 1000 posts.

 

The apps cover my favorite TA tools: Hurst, Fibonacci, and Trend.

 

Make your choice and let me know which one you would like to download.

 

This is good stuff for Wall Street Professional Edition subscribers. The cycle charts are similar to those in my reports. Give them a try and let me know what you think.

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Latest Story

 

Worst Fed Blunder In History?

September 15, 2012By Lee Adler

 

Russ Winter and Lee Adler discuss why the latest round of Fed Quantitative Easing will quickly lead to disaster, but stocks will go higher first .

rfwslogosmall.png?affiliate=self

This is a subscriber only podcast.

If you are not a subscriber, Click here to access the most recent free podcast posted on Monday, July 30. Also check out Russ Winter’s Daily Rants available on the Radio Free Wall Street home page and at Winter Watch.

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Lee, if I subscribe to Professional Edition, will I get access to archived reports?

 

Absolutely. I had to remove the older reports from the server earlier this year when my new webhost blew up, but if you need something from before last year, just email me and I'll send it to you.

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6 weeks ago.

The market’s pullback continues the recent indecisive, inconclusive pattern, but the 6 month cycle
generated its first upside projection, pointing to a high of 1442 due within 6 weeks or so at most.
Whether it gets there depends on how the market responds this week to the Fed, and Friday’s jobs
news. I’m leaning toward a bullish resolution based on the both the technical and liquidity factors, as
well as stronger than generally understood economic data, which I have covered on the free side of the
Wall Street Examiner. If the jobs number beats consensus expectations, the market should take off.


Here's the whole July 31 Market Update.

From the July 31 Fed Report-

The composite liquidity indicator had a tiny downtick last week. The indicator has remained
essentially flat for most of July, but is still firmly entrenched in a strong uptrend...


The Fed’s buying of MBS and the slight tilt of Operation Twist toward more purchases from Primary
Dealers than sales to them, will remain a bullish influence at least until year end. Large bank trading
account patterns are still bullish while bank net Treasury purchases are back to a neutral pattern. Net
bank inflows are in a slightly bullish intermediate trend, while reserve deposits at the Fed remain in a
neutral pattern. Foreign central bank purchase patterns have improved from bearish to neutral.
Taken as a whole, that should be enough to keep Treasuries at very low yields and to continue to give
stocks a boost. It’s too soon to tell if there’s a sentiment shift under way away from Treasuries. All
else being equal, that would work in favor of strengthening equities, but if yields head to new lows,
stocks should roll over. Liquidity, while bullish, still seems insufficient to support bull moves in both
investment classes.




Here's that report. Note that since then the liquidity indicators had become even more bullish even before this week's Fed move.

Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, 6 month and 10-12 month cycle projections and multiple time frame cyclical, regression channel, and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update and support your community. Join NOW!

And from the Treasury report of July 28-

Here are the key bullet points in this report.

· Net new Treasury supply for the July 31 settlement will be the heaviest it has been since July
15, 2011. The shift in sentiment on Friday suggests that it will be more of a problem for bonds
than stocks.

· After Tuesday, supply will be light until the end of August. The markets will not have to face
that as an obstacle.

· The 10 year Treasury Yield has been at a major inflection point as it set a minor new low at a
key technical level. Friday’s action suggests a turn, but confirmation is needed.

· Withholding tax collections reached a 4 week average real gain of 3.75% year to year,
suggesting for a second week that economic data may come in better than consensus
expectations for weak growth. That could be the Treasury bubble’s death star.

· Withholding tax collections weakened over the past 10 days, but it looks like a normal
fluctuation so far. If the 4 week average drops below a 2% real gain, that could be trouble.

· With revenues up, outlays are running slightly below last year. Spending has not kept pace
with revenue gains. No unexpected increases are likely in Treasury supply. If anything, supply
going forward could be slightly lower than expected. The impact would not be material.

· Bond fund inflows picked up again but are still down 30% from the April peak.

· FCB buying of Treasury paper increased last week, triggering a possible buy signal, but the
recent pattern has been choppy, so I expect that this too will not be sustained.

· Primary Dealers sold Treasuries in the week ended July 18. The Primary Dealer Treasury
buying panic reached a crescendo in the week ended June 6, leading to them mostly selling
since then. The indicator is nearing a significant trendline. If broken, that could be an important
signal that the Treasury market buying panic is ending.


· Commercial banks had been heavy buyers of Treasuries in two of the previous 3 weeks, with
purchases hitting record levels. In the week ended July 18, they were sellers again, leading to
the question of whether that buying surge was another sign of the final blowoff of the Treasury
market.

· The dollar pulled back after reaching intermediate price objectives as well as a trend resistance
line. The trend still looks bullish longer term as the medium of exchange of the Last Ponzi
Game standing, but if key support in the 81 area breaks, that game could be over, with negative
repercussions for Treasuries, and positive implications for gold and other money substitutes
like oil. The question is whether stocks would also be seen as one of those.



Here's that report.

Stay up to date with the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central banks in the US market, along with regular updates of the US housing market, in the Fed Report in the Professional Edition, Money Liquidity, and Real Estate Package. Try it risk free for 30 days. Don't miss another day. Get the research and analysis you need to understand these critical forces. Be prepared. Stay ahead of the herd. Click this link and begin your risk free trial NOW!

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Those fake jobs created during the credit bubble were worse than just being non-productive.

 

They actually made things worse through the addition of fraud and continued expansion of the credit bubble.

 

We need a word for job that society things are legitimate, but in retrospect really hurt things overall.

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Based on UGA, looks like another few $'s before the SPR Release rumors start

 

z?s=UGA&t=5y&q=c&l=off&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US

 

So true. Crude is one of the most manipulated commodities. During this last hurricane someone got caught with their pants down, but they managed to smack the price down just before the opening bell by manufacturing spr release rumors. Yeah right.

 

Crude is probably going to be a laggard in the first part of this commodity boom but then watch out.

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In your exchange, dumbshit ex-CBer tweets:

 

"distinction makes no sense empirically & consequently is worthless people are mobile occupationally/regionally"

 

This is asinine. You know how many 'merikans are trapped "regionally" by being upside down in a house? Hypothetical labor in a goddamned theoretical market flows instantaneously to where the MFing jobs are. But in the freaking real world, this arrogant pondscum POS' "occupationally/regionally" mobile labor is stuck in the mire and mud.

 

SMFCSPOSAH.

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