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Charmin

Quarterly Digger - Till the Top

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I had a major bottom between Oct31 and Nov7. Will the market closing push it 2 days on both sides or will trading "catch up". Major positions in order of size: New Gold, Rio Alto,Kootenay Silver,Calibre Mining and Newstrike Capital

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I had a major bottom between Oct31 and Nov7. Will the market closing push it 2 days on both sides or will trading "catch up". Major positions in order of size: New Gold, Rio Alto,Kootenay Silver,Calibre Mining and Newstrike Capital

 

May extend to Nov9th.

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Yes Whadda I Do $1,665 would make me feel a lot better than $700 if it would stop there. :D I've provided a chart by Pitrading.com showing the monthly pivot points for GLD because I could not get $ gold to come up so I used GLD plus 3.5082% x 10 to get the pivot points for spot gold. I came up with 3.5082% because gold traded 3.5082% above GLD at the 2011 $1,923.70 cycle swing high. GLD traded at $185.85.

 

GLD

S1 165.98 plus 3.5082% = 171.80291 x 10= $1,718.0291

 

S2 160.06 plus 3.5082% = 165.67522 x 10= $ 1,656.7522

 

S3 156.46 plus 3.5082% = 161.94892 x 10= $1,619.4892

 

The average of the three monthly spot gold support pivot points come out to be $1,664.76

 

Just a follow-up on this post of mine. Assuming the bottom is in now I thought I would pass along this observation that came to light. When I posted this I was trying to figure out the bottom projection on Spot Gold my $1,664.76 target low came in less than 1/2% of the final low at $1,672.50 as I look back on my notes I saw that it had become possible to project the exact low on GLD. At the time I printed out the monthly pivot support points as shown for

 

Monthly

GLD S1=165.98

S2=160.06

S3=156.46

I had also jotted down in my notes the weekly pivot support points also from pitrading.com at the time

Weekly

S1=165.49

S2= 164.00

S3= 161.77

Now you add up the three monthly and the three weekly together and divide by 6 to get the average and the number comes out to be 162.29333 the GLD final low came in at 162.30 Interesting!

Just thought this information might be helpful in the future for us Gold Bugs.

 

PS. Nice call by Whadda I Do and also chiefywiefy and Dharmaeye on their time cycle work :rolleyes: Assuming the low has been put in of course.

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I see Nov 13 - Tuesday as a possible launch point (pivot?) for miners. Trouble is the general market looks down till end of year.

Stock ideas? GG...

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Another back up the truck moment...this has been going on for almost two years. Or as Sinclair says, don't sell your insurance.

 

Stay in cash, if you have any. January you can start bottoming fishing.

 

Who is the genius that said miners will takeoff when gold is making new highs? Need escape velocity out of this large channel instead of traveling sideways. Short term handle in spot gold needs to confirm itself by continuing above the cup. If not, a new formation to contend with.

 

You might pick a few favorites here or long shots at these levels because spots are mostly green but they should rest soon as the regular markets are sending Congress a message albeit upon deaf ears.

 

Put SAND on your watch list. Rainy River keeps on finding rich dirt. Canadian or Mexican with a few in the US are possibly the safest hunting grounds. Weak producing mines always a takeover target as mergers ought to pickup at these prices levels if that large expected move shows up sometime next year.

 

Maybe gas distribution (without the gas wells) might be a play. Agriculture a little later on.

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So, the other day 200+ stocks quotes are suspended due to some glitch. If over 70% of market trading is by computer programming (more like 90% but who's counting), what is the problem? Even computer trading will balance itself out sans the humans' manual buy and sells. More like they tried to stop or interfere with the sell off but when you can only follow the markets with limited funds, you can't change trend.

 

All those shares bought via the Plunge Protection Team before the elections now revert to a taxpayer's loss and add to the debt load, Banks hoarding % free money, doesn't seem to be working out to well, they will never hoard enough to cover their losses.

 

Eventually when you begin to see delays in product availability, then socialism is in full swing.

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I have been working on something with the point and figure charts trying to project the low for the gold stocks and if I am right the lows were put in today Friday November 16th. Here is the HUI and NUGT gold miners bull 3x shares

for example. If it turns out that I am wrong then just put be on ignore and then I will have to fine tune some more after all it is always a work in progress.

post-8571-0-98151600-1353109044_thumb.jpg

post-8571-0-13323600-1353109117_thumb.jpg

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Becareful here. The yearly selloff for tax purposes can be anyhwhere during the first two weeks of December with miners staying down until a bounce in January occurs. I don't see any reason for things to be different this year. I am already doing some lite selling, starting with NGD. I keep cores of my favorite miners, smaller than they used to be as cash is still okay so far.

 

Mathematically this acquiring debt thing can't go on forever. But, the US is so resilient that this could drag out years more before a banking meltdown finally ends it. An example would be if taxes are raised (no matter how they spin it) that will support the dollar a little longer or the economy could tread water on the back of fracking for gas as the US could become energy self dependent plus an major exporter in the near furture . It won't prevent the final banking episode just prolong it, again. Along with all the other smoke, mirrors and can kicking.

 

I don't how you guys chart manipulation but moves are still meaningless because of the large range inside the high/low channel, working on that 2 year sideways correction. Might help with short term trading.

 

I'd expect more pain until next summer but the PM markets could let Congress know they have failed at anytime in taxes, jobs, debt, banking confidence and everything else. In the regular markets, there is always a bull to be found somewhere. Ex: MDBX

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Duluth Metals DULMF, believe me, there is no shortage of natural resources in the US.

 

The US rivals any country on the planet. Whether Congress designates the remaining open space as Federal Park Land is the big question. WSJ says the US could again become the world's major oil producer by 2020, already oil production is up to 15 year highs (last reached 6.5 million barrels a day in January 1998).

 

Armstrong says Japan will be next in line for the debt crisis to leave it in ruins, then the US follows. IMO, Japan being a puppet regime, can no longer follow the instructions from its US puppetmaster. If economics doesn't ruin the country, Fukushima fallout will still leave it a wasteland.

 

I'm still think'in some new improved taxing power (plus O's healthcare taxes) will support the dollar a little while longer along with Japan's final failure which will again cause a rush to the US$, according to Armstrong.

 

Mathematically the debt will end in crisis, the big question is when or can you hold on/out that long hanging around PM and miners?

 

Still slowly selling, mainly for tax reasons.

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Duluth Metals DULMF, believe me, there is no shortage of natural resources in the US.

 

The US rivals any country on the planet. Whether Congress designates the remaining open space as Federal Park Land is the big question. WSJ says the US could again become the world's major oil producer by 2020, already oil production is up to 15 year highs (last reached 6.5 million barrels a day in January 1998).

 

Armstrong says Japan will be next in line for the debt crisis to leave it in ruins, then the US follows. IMO, Japan being a puppet regime, can no longer follow the instructions from its US puppetmaster. If economics doesn't ruin the country, Fukushima fallout will still leave it a wasteland.

 

I'm still think'in some new improved taxing power (plus O's healthcare taxes) will support the dollar a little while longer along with Japan's final failure which will again cause a rush to the US$, according to Armstrong.

 

Mathematically the debt will end in crisis, the big question is when or can you hold on/out that long hanging around PM and miners?

 

Still slowly selling, mainly for tax reasons.

 

A little different thought.

Suspect UPSA dollar will actually improve in value till about 2019 as a security blanket/ habit until a lot of the crap we are going to go through.

As you implied. UPSA government can destroy any county/ currency it wants.

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Armstrong 1.14.13  (If you're lazy, the last two paragraphs)...

 

 

The size of the required bailout for Cyprus is about 100% of its GDP – some €17.5 billion. This is raising serious problems behind the curtain and there is even talk of eliminating Cyprus from the EU nullifying all passports. This is just the tip of the problem behind the Euro. Where alliances are attributed to creating World War I, today it is the Euro that has created a financial alliance that nobody understood. Its design is fatally flawed and we are running out of band-aids here.

The entire world economy is at stake. It is time to stop the bullshit. We need REAL monetary reform. Unfortunately, hold-on. This rise seems headed to stop only when we reach the end. The European Commission issued its report on bank bailouts, the “2012 State Aid Scoreboard.” This has revealed that the amount that the 27 EU states handed to their banks because of this faulty design of using all member state bonds as reserves amounted to €1.6 trillion. This is 13% of GDP to keep the banking system floating and there are still leaks with a risk that the entire banking system collapses being supported by member bonds. Add to the fact that 2013 appears that GDP growth will be flat and may even be in real terms NEGATIVE. So those who still think the dollar is the greatest risk, better open your eyes. The USA is in prettiest of the ugly sisters. She may be no prize, but she will be the LAST to go.

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I'm think'in the bottom is in for spot and the HUI and I am waiting confirmation for some bottoms to hold and overhead short term trend lines to be broken through. Technical gaps appear filled.  OE Week was pretty much of a dud this week enough though there was an attempt to crash gold. Didn't work this time, it was more of a buying opportunity. Bottom or not, still a slow ride up until the old highs are taken out.

 

Seems the consumer market is flooded with fancy handhelds and phones to the point of saturation. Desktop and laptop markets are already well into this malise.

 

Flash trading also seems to have finally balanced itself out in the computer program vs computer program trades, leaving only a few humans that actually do conventional trading.

 

If Euroland is going to house the next great banking system and debt is the qualifier then that should work because they certainly are not producing for the growth category and neither is China unless you consider selling your own products to your own people growth.

 

More stagflation ahead, where what you need costs more and luxury items fall in price. I always thought US consumers could live with 1% growth or even less but it is the banks that scream like little babies with the Federal R Bank trying to appease them by guessing what the future will bring to soffen the blow. As always the consumer leads and the Federal R follows ex. lowest % rates ever for housing loans and consumers yawn. With all the future tax uncertainy, I can't blame businesses and consumers for sitting it out.

 

Unemployment should skyrocketing if part time work is considered unemployed, I remember in the past you could collect partial unemployment checks when working less than a 40 hour week. Don't know about now.

 

Nuclear industry is a farce, Japan shuts down like 40+ nuke power plants and lives on, Germany trying to phase out nuke power plants and has excess solar/wind electric power at times and this is early in the transition away from nuke power plants, much to the chargin of the nuke industry. What the nuke industry already knows the public will soon wakeup to, there is no 'OFF' switch for nuclear chain reactions with its daughter byproducts (think about spent fuel/waste storage or reprocessing and who pays for it).

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