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Quarterly Digger - Till the Top

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The highest weekly close on GLD was one year ago on Sept. 2, 2011 after the previous week saw some of the highest volume for the chart of GLD. On a weekly chart GLD has now crossed back over the 50 bar ma after retesting lows and it might be safe to say that the drift will be upwards. Twenty points higher puts the chart into a retest area.


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I'd almost say typical end of August move but things should get wild now. Watch oil, the aussie, the euro, then the dollar. Housing sucks, shipping sucks, China really sucks, Japan will never recover from Fukushima, the possible tax hikes loom large still and the republicans offer more of the same in the economy category (oil and gas projects would be nice though). Might try trading here hoping for swings in the miners unless the shorts capitulate.

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Posted on September 13, 2012


The Federal Reserve has actually done something at last worthy of note. They indicated that they will provide more stimulus for the faltering economy, taking aim now at driving down mortgage rates. The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgages per month in an attempt to desperately foster a recovery in the real estate market. The purchases will be open-ended, meaning that they will continue until the Fed is satisfied that economic conditions, primarily in unemployment, improve.

Of course, this will also fail if they are buying mortgages from the bankers. They will use this as a means to dump what they have been trying to get rid of all along, while it is not necessarily guaranteed to stimulate employment or housing prices. The Fed should LIMIT this type of purchasing from FannieMae and not from the bankers. That will have a more direct impact rather than providing a dumping ground and golden parachutes for the bankers.

Nevertheless, we should see gold rise a bit more to test the Monthly Bullish Reversals, and it is next week that volatility should rise further. The sharp rally today after this announcement shows the short-term sentiment. However, we MUST achieve a monthly closing above 18100. We have resistance at 17900-18100. We have a Directional Change in October, key turning points ahead are November, January, and then we have a Panic Cycle next July that is lining up with the same position as did the 1987 Crash. So it still appears that things will go nuts next year in early August. That will probably be the rally into 2016...

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Silver fails to retravel the $35-$37 range, gotta wait longer for that retrace.


Better to watch the gold chart. Short term stairsteps turning into what?


Need to see what type of topping formation developes here. Rounding tops lead to a protracted correction. Waterfall could lead to a quick correction since this is all retracement action inside a large channel. Blowoff top would lead to basing at $1650 or $1720 or pick a strong floor number. Sideways basing in spot gold and miners get a chance to continue to catch up.


Have been doing to some lite selling to raise cash. Really liking to buy silver mining stock options on any downdraft which I think could happen anytime between now until January.

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Just a follow-up on a previous post I made.


There is an article today October 1 posted on Kitco by Kira McCaffrey Brecht titled Technical Trading: Gold Triangle Pattern Targets Gains to $2,100 an ounce. That's interesting because that matches the point and figure target that I posted targeting gold to $2,077.24 back several months ago using daily, percentage, high/low, 2 box reversal, box size 1.99885%. Remember this also predicted the low of $1,523.90 that I posted. This would be interesting if it turned out to be correct again. :lol:



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The thinking goes that Romney would want to put a someone with more hawkish – or conservative – views on monetary policy in the chairman position at the Federal Reserve.

Doing so, the market seems to fear, would be bad for risk assets because of the prospect that the "Bernanke put" would be removed, and the risk that the Fed lets markets fall without providing more stimulus would rise.




If Romney win then say good riddance to Stocks,Bond and Gold






By year end I will dump everything and see how it plays out

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