Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Charmin

Quarterly Digger - Til the Fireworks

Recommended Posts

Price of gold has no relation to confetti production; if that was the case then Gold would be over 15k.

 

It’s all about reserve currency. I am getting less bullish about gold due to last dislocation where it done badly, US Bond is the ultimate safe haven, if there is a dislocation next week gold will do badly

 

You are actually getting less bullish on 'inflation' as (debt) deflation takes over when QE keeps failing.

 

If you remember HyperTiger saying, that during the ultimate downward deflation spiral even gold becomes worthless but I don't think we are anywhere near that point (a reset).

 

Bonds at a negative savings rate is a piss poor rate of return but in these conditions, capital preservation is a worthwhile struggle.

 

You can see why manipulators have such a easy time herding the cattle when everything is so convoluted like using vaseline to clean a windshield to see the road ahead.

 

Everything is still priced in dollars except when bartering. Oil is priced in dollars, China is pegged to the dollar. Russia and China might want to peg to the Euro but the dollar supports the Euro via the IMF. Grains are priced in dollars and so on and so forth. As long as the US rules the world, displacement of the dollar will be a pipe dream. It will take a concentrated effort to remove the US as the standard rule of thumb. I don't see any other country or countries in any condition to rule the world in the near term. Even a collapse in the US economy would lead to a free for all around the world with no clear cut winner stepping up to the plate with a new money standard, maybe gold/PM in the interim so having a little in hand won't hurt.

 

Armstrong is thinking a move to private sector investments will occur at this point in time but a total breakdown in the rule of law would wipe out any market confidence, again leading to one ugly reset.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Stoolies,

 

Love the sentiment.

 

Gold about to launch. Conservative count here:

 

Alf

 

Long since 2000 AD. GLD 160 is support....$1640 spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alf, Sinclair scratching their heads trying to force the pieces of the puzzle to fit together even Armstrong keeps pushing drop dead dates further and further out. Now Armstrong says maybe 2015 to 2020 until the financial system collapses on itself.

 

I'm not saying the US has the most resilient people around but with any hopes of correcting corruption it makes hope spring eternal and the slow demise of freedoms takes time to creep up on a people before they find themselves in a stranglehold.

 

As long as you keep the debt slaves inline and paying on time, this PM bull could stretch to a thirty year overall run and you might go broke while waiting for that 6 month in duration blow off top.

 

An election year, where everything is put off until later (more than usual) and hope is the guiding light again. Keep oil and PM prices down to paint a rosy picture for the masses. Whoever wins, I see more of the same ol' same old.

 

The Supremes' forth coming decision supposedly in June will affect the dollar as the Healthcare mandate has a ton of new taxes built into it that haven't kicked in yet and affects many levels of government and if the law is struck down, the dollar will crash until the funding gap is filled in. Businesses don't know which way to head until the decision comes down but any costs will be passed on to consumers along with new taxes (hidden or direct).

 

Gold, I think, suffers from 'go away in May' until August because no money flows into the sector equals disinterest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm coming up on the 1 year charts with, silver $27.15 and gold $1486.50 as lows to hold. Anything above those targets would be considered higher lows with 2 months to consolidate and base build. Below those numbers brings a protracted correction, maybe a year more depending where the bottoms end at.

 

I don't think the HUI breaks below $374 (the start of a climb early in 2010) unless silver and gold breaks below their yearly lows. Might find out by tomorrow with all the bleed out of red.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is quite in here, that's why I come here to think.

 

My targets held, not counting anyone else's targets. Silver was a close call but within a large margin of error since it is so chaotic normally.

 

Spike lows on some of the miners should make this a temp bottom on the HUI. So near $374 needs to hold or new targets come into play.

 

Sinclair talks about a stronger Euro if the weak hands exit, I don't think we are talking about markets and/or fiat valuation but people themselves. If million of Greeks had to live in poverty, better under their own rule than under the thumb of bankers. Bankers will try the carrot and stick routine until it doesn't work, we will see if citizens have smartened up after being treated like lab rats. Greece never qualified for Euro entry in the first place

 

Armstrong thinks $1520 gives way then leading to the low $1400s even though he originally said sideways movement could be considered a correction without falling below a large channel formation. Better a low now within the next couple of months than a high. He's looking for volatility come Sept/Oct, doesn't say up or down. He's been pretty much correct so far, especially about calling for a dollar rally back during his jail writing days. Now he talks about a Berlin type electronic wall to keep US citizens' money fenced in.

 

I say waiting for the Supreme Court decision on O'bummer Care in June dictates the trends until the election results. Upheld and the dollar stays strong, stricken and the dollar crashes, remembering everything the dollar can affect either way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a follow-up on my post #30 page #2 April 29th 2012.

As I noted in that post the projections were for a head and shoulders bottom formation (if it continues) as we all know now it did not hold and continued down and now is showing a possible double bottom formation.

 

During this golden bull we have already had a double bottom formation that produced a 1-1 fibonacci expansion from the start of the bull. Using this as a guide and if it does it again and the pattern holds the price projection would come out to be $3,191.80 this would be close to one of Alf Fields Elliot Wave Major Three projections of $3,500.

 

Some might ask why don't I wait until the pattern plays itself out and broken above the $1,923.70 so I won't need to redo anything if the pattern changes. The answer is I just can't control myself.

 

Note: With the caveat that I have no expertise in Point and Figure Chart reading and all I have done is observe these chart formations and saw that they seem to work giving projections.

 

" I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won't work" Thomas Edisonwacko.gif

 

P.S. Thanks JP6 for the heads up on the diamond formation for GG.

post-8571-13376213992_thumb.jpg

post-8571-133762152038_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was a nice bounce, now we have to see if the recent bottoms will hold which are also support levels that you really don't want to see violated.

 

AMEN!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was a nice bounce, now we have to see if the recent bottoms will hold which are also support levels that you really don't want to see violated.

 

Here's how it looks to me.

post-1352-0-10032700-1338002483_thumb.png

post-1352-0-88816300-1338002495_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a follow-up on my post #30 page #2 April 29th 2012.

As I noted in that post the projections were for a head and shoulders bottom formation (if it continues) as we all know now it did not hold and continued down and now is showing a possible double bottom formation.

 

During this golden bull we have already had a double bottom formation that produced a 1-1 fibonacci expansion from the start of the bull. Using this as a guide and if it does it again and the pattern holds the price projection would come out to be $3,191.80 this would be close to one of Alf Fields Elliot Wave Major Three projections of $3,500.

 

Some might ask why don't I wait until the pattern plays itself out and broken above the $1,923.70 so I won't need to redo anything if the pattern changes. The answer is I just can't control myself.

 

Note: With the caveat that I have no expertise in Point and Figure Chart reading and all I have done is observe these chart formations and saw that they seem to work giving projections.

 

" I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won't work" Thomas Edison :wacko2:

 

P.S. Thanks JP6 for the heads up on the diamond formation for GG.

 

 

This post is to give more clarification of what I'am thinking for the next projection of gold from my post #30 and #37.

post-8571-0-68060400-1338225996_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even Norrcini is penciling in lower targets for spot gold, like the mid 1300's. He is using a wide Fibs spread to come up with that number. Armstrong's computer was spitting out a possible low in the 1100s.

 

If any of those projections are possible on a retrace then I don't think it's going to spike that low but gradually and steadly fall, like it has been doing. With that, you might have a chance to get out of positions during any good rallies some time coming between Aug. - Nov. only if you think '13, '14, '15, going to be bad years for mining stocks. Myself, I don't see how it could get much worse but even going sideways from today's pricing for 2 or 3 years would be tragic enough (another back up the truck moment, huh?).

 

Maybe finding miners paying dividends or regular stocks paying dividends to park in and wait it out is a play but holding dollars long term will be eroded as pricing comes with more and more inflation figured in and assets keep deflating

 

Euroland central banks can't afford to have members exit or they have to writedown the losses almost immediately. Further pumping to keep members strungout and they can carry the loans on the books for decades as payment due. I think Greece and Spain have figured that out and are the difference between all of Euroland failing or continuing.

 

Aside: Germany just recently, for one day, produced 50% of their power needs from solar panels. Power generating companies everywhere must hate that fact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Aside: Germany just recently, for one day, produced 50% of their power needs from solar panels. Power generating companies everywhere must hate that fact.

 

Wrong

They love it

Belgium produced 21% green energy for a day

Too much electricity

The net was going to go down in a big way if they could not get rid of the electricity

No producer was willing to shut down or cut down and lose money

So the net was failing which would produce a complete black out

Holland and Germany had too much electricity too

So we ended up PAYING the french branches of our producers 50% of the value to take the energy

YES we paid 50% of the worth to give it away

It is expected that this will happen several times this year

TOO many solar panels and aerolienes ( windturbos) and nobody willing to slow down and lose money

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Aside: Germany just recently, for one day, produced 50% of their power needs from solar panels. Power generating companies everywhere must hate that fact.

 

Wrong

They love it

Belgium produced 21% green energy for a day

Too much electricity

The net was going to go down in a big way if they could not get rid of the electricity

No producer was willing to shut down or cut down and lose money

So the net was failing which would produce a complete black out

Holland and Germany had too much electricity too

So we ended up PAYING the french branches of our producers 50% of the value to take the energy

YES we paid 50% of the worth to give it away

It is expected that this will happen several times this year

TOO many solar panels and aerolienes ( windturbos) and nobody willing to slow down and lose money

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!



Old Stool Depository


The Wall Street Examiner
Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner
Contact Us




Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com.
×