Does Ta Matter In This Environment?

[BAREister]

Or so sez GENE INGER in his weekend hotline (1-900-933-GENE a toll #)

 

Inger argues, correctly, that the market is now dominated by events and TA matters little, if at all, in EITHER direction, and won't, really, until there's a "favorable" resolution to the Iraq conflict, which, in HRFF's opinion, may prove highly elusive and/or ephemeral if it is EVER realized any time SOON, that is.

 

And it MUST happen soon or this bull is KAPUTSKI. It is, anyway, and hASS been FUR three years, but sentiment is still at manic levels ass reflected in that chart on Mark to Mkt re the ratio of volume to GDP so strongly suggests it is.

 

Now half or more of you can foam at the mouth at this notion, especially those with a bearish TA bent, where downward pricing action might confirm a no. of indicators suggesting it.

 

One hASS to ASSk where the mkt would be if the war weren't

a factor, and the answer would probably be higher, though, SNOT by much. And proof of that will come when/if there's a broad perception of "victory" with a rally that Inger describes ass "fierce", and what lots? of yew are wondering about, here, already. One that won't hold.

 

Of course? The BARE predicted this bear market would NEUTRALIZE many TA indicators. Seems bear markets conveniently coincide with some external event(s), too.

 

SG hints at the crux of the matter; actually he repeatedly addresses the reality that markets are "psychological beasts" and rattles on about "mood", how it is now negative, and, how, inexorably, price will continue to pay homage to it unless/until that mood reverses. Unless, of course, HRFF is misunderstanding him.

 

Please don't bASSh ? The BARE FUR the last remarx about how markets are not, primarily, technical, butt, rather are pyschological critters. He's been hammered FUR over 7 years FUR saying that and is, by now, UDDERly impervious/inured to such cASStigation ? and howls of protest to the contrary. It's ass true on the way up, where "mood" is described ass "animal spirits" ass it is on the way down.

 

There's been a lot? of claptrap about how the news doesn't "matter". (someone is even quoting Joltin Joe G to that effect.) The HELL it doesn't!!! It's driving the stock market beFUR it now, and, perhaps, the currency markets ass well.

 

The prospect of war is a Damoclean sword slicing through technical analysis. If it lifts many of the bearish indicators will be instantly repudiated - FUR a while. While it hangs, razor sharp over the neck of all of humankind, bullish indicators are being tossed ASSide ?.

 

You're SNOT going to get any violent rally unless/until it lifts.

 

So u can FURgeddaboudid until Saddam is removed, and some semblance of stability reinstated, voluntarily, or, more likely, with great violence, tragedy and destruction for the entire region, and, hence, the world at large.

 

Now Gene Inger, it should be noted, is a HIGHLY accomplished TA guy.

 

There are times when TA just doesn't help that much. This is one of those times when events are in the front seat and also behind the STEER>>>>ing (sorry, couldn't resist THAT one! LOL) wheel.

[Guest]

All major event surprises are in the direction of the main TA trend.

 

Would there have been all this war talk if the US markets and economy were not in such a dire state and Bush didn't need the diversion and the oil so urgently? Probably not.

 

The markets will go where the crowd sentiment pushes them. The politics will go where the even bigger crowd sentiment pushes them. Wars are just extensions of politics with other means.

 

External events matter only as triggers to existing crowd mood setups. They can be pivotal only when the crowd mood is sitting on a fence - not when it is in a stable trend.

 

TA helps us decypher the mood of the crowds. Ergo...

 

It works even if you don't believe in it. :wink2:

 

Regards,

Vesselin

 

P.S. Oh, and what bull?

[Goldmember]

Calculated Prophet:

 

 

 

My time coming any day, don't worry 'bout me, no

Been so long I felt this way, ain't in no hurry no

Rainbows end down that highway where ocean breezes blow

My time coming, voices saying, they tell me where to go

 

 

Don't you worry 'bout me--oh no no, don't worry 'bout me, no

And I'm in no hurry--oh no no no, I know where to go

 

 

Stool, preaching on the burning shore

Stool, I'll be knocking on the golden door

Like an angel, standing in a shaft of light

Rising up to paradise, I know I'm gonna shine

 

 

My time coming any day, don't worry 'bout me, no

It's gonna be just like they say, them voices tell me so

Seems so long I felt this way and time sure passing slow

Still I know I lead the way, they tell me where I go

 

 

Don't you worry 'bout me--oh, no, no, don't worry 'bout me, no

And I'm in no hurry--oh, no, no, no, I know where to go

 

 

Stool, a prophet on the burning shore

Stool, I'll be knocking on the golden door

Like an angel, standing in a shaft of light

Rising up to paradise, I know I'm gonna shine

 

 

You've all been asleep, you would not believe me

Them voices telling me, you will soon receive me

We're standing on the beach, the sea will part before me

Fire wheel burning in the air

You will follow me and we will ride to glory

Way up in the middle of the air

And I'll call down thunder and speak the same

And my work fills the sky with flame

And might and glory gonna be my name

And men gonna light my way

 

 

My time coming any day, don't worry 'bout me, no

It's gonna be just like they say, them voices tell me so

Seems so long I felt this way and time sure passing slow

My time coming any day, don't worry 'bout me, no

Don't you worry 'bout me--oh, no, no, don't worry 'bout me, no

And I'm in no hurry--oh, no, no, don't worry 'bout me, no

And I'm in no hurry--oh, no, no, no, I know where to go

 

:grin: [slightly modified Bob Hunter tune]

[BAREister]

Vessilin, perhaps, BUTT HRFF would (de? LOL) posit that this war would have stopped the parabolic "dead" in it's trax had it happened 3 years ago, instead of now.

 

Gold: HRFF had a neighbor, one of the nicest women he's ever known, her husband just ASS nice. She died about two months ago.

He died, suddenly, three days ago. He was only 67. The stress of her illnes and death got to him.

 

When your number's up, it's UP.

 

Unless Saddam slinks away with his tail between his legs (the thought of him running away is ludicrous to this observer given his bellicose and savage temperament) hundreds of thousands of people are about to die. Maybe millions.

 

Will next week be the lASSt peaceful one in the West FUR simply AGES?

[Guest]

BARE, I don't disagree with all that. TA cannot predict an individual's fate - it only works on crowds. And the markets will go down, as TA predicts - war or no war. In fact, I maintain that we'll have wars (and not just one) because the markets are going down, which has negative impacts on the economies, which results in wars. And markets go down because of the mood of the crowds - not because of wars. And TA measures and models precisely this mood of the crowds. That's why it works and that's why external events don't matter none.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[Goldmember]

Bare, yes I suppose it could be construed in that manner, as in parting this world, however, I thought of it more as much yet to come in this life, and Stool's work and passion reaching heights of fame as yet unseen, but coming, sooner than we may think.

[DrStool]

Anyone who disbelieves that TA hasn't forecast this hasn't been paying attention and is also full of gaddam crap and I am gaddam sick and tired of listening to gaddam crap. News is noise.

 

 

Crap crap crap > FULL OF CRAP. Now pay some attention dammit.

[Pretzel Logic]

BARE, my fine furry friend, I refer you to my post on Dec. 19th (readily available in the March prediction post at the top of LOB):

Posted on Dec 19 2002, 06:15 AM by PrtzlLogic (in response to "Where will the SPX be on 3/31/03?"):

Somewhere in the 600-675 range...

I base this on a number of things, including cycles, e-wave, and voodoo (some people refer to this as the "Bradley model").

...Unless something changes, in mid-January I'll be loading up on June puts (just in case I'm a little early w/ March).

I've been saying it for awhile: the next move is the one we'll be telling our grandkids about.

But what the hell do I know.

 

How could I have known we'd have a turn in mid-January without TA? I don't have a crystal ball that tells me what's going to be unfolding on the world-event stage. All I have is the charts, and if you dig around some in the old posts, you'll see I've been saying "a major downturn will develop in mid-January" since November '02.

 

So, you tell me: do the charts unfold according to the events... or do the events unfold according to the charts?

[The End]

Bare,

 

Not that you will respond to me. (although, i did apprecite your pm last week)

 

Doc and Curry/Tomlinson have called the turns pretty damn good as of late (the last twelve months).

 

Soo, T/A is still woking. It just depends on who your listening to.

[DrStool]

The top market timers have pegged this market cold and BAREister knows it. He simply chooses to ignore the fact that technical anal cysts who actually know what they are doing have gotten this market right. TA is after all about measuring psychology.

 

BAREister is a gaddam troublemaker.

 

I don't like troublemakers.

 

He's banned.

[Hiding Bear]

BARE, I don't disagree with all that. TA cannot predict an individual's fate - it only works on crowds. And the markets will go down, as TA predicts - war or no war. In fact, I maintain that we'll have wars (and not just one) because the markets are going down, which has negative impacts on the economies, which results in wars. And markets go down because of the mood of the crowds - not because of wars. And TA measures and models precisely this mood of the crowds. That's why it works and that's why external events don't matter none.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

Vesselin, you are very good at explaining how TA relates to the market and world events.

 

Since I didn't particpate in Capital Stool in 2001, were you and/or others here looking for a sharp market fall before the market closings of 9/11/01?

 

Thanks, HB.

[SupplySider]

There will no doubt be an "Iraq War Effect," but the LONG-TERM trend of this market has nothing whatsoever to do with Iraq. The bear market that started three years ago has merely hiccuped along the way for 9/11, Enron, Worldcom, Kmart, twelve fund rate cuts, blah blah blah, Iraq. Of course, the pundits have used these hiccups to blame the market for not cooperating with their bullish bias. But, the reality is that this secular bear gives not a wit for politicians, bulls, bears, dictators, etc.

[SupplySider]

Anyone who disbelieves that TA hasn't forecast this hasn't been paying attention and is also full of gaddam crap and I am gaddam sick and tired of listening to gaddam crap. News is noise.

StockCharts.com hates to use the word "forecast" because anti-TA folks tend to use it to claim that TA is nothing but crystal ball gazing. It (StockCharts.com) looks at TA as more of a tool for managing risk -- for picking less risky entry/exit points .... not to get in at absolute tops and absolute bottoms. Those who think TA should always be right are asking too much. And those who think it should forecast the future to 100% accuracy are asking for the impossible. Think of TA as a tool for managing risk and trying to figure out when to swim with the tide rather than against it.

[SupplySider]

BAREister is a gaddam troublemaker.

 

I don't like troublemakers.  

 

He's banned.

That's a bit extreme, don't you think. We need BARE around to stir the pot every once in a while. It sometimes gets dull around here with only bears sitting around patting themselves on the back.

[The End]

Barbu,

 

Stop with the what i said in the past stuff. What do you think for now, not august of 2002.