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Charmin

Monthly Digger - September 2011

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make no mistake , gold is and will continue to be the leader. when other commodities go up, it only strengthens golds case.

today , volatility is much less. we are just marking time here. the dollar has rallied, it has had little to no affect on gold prices. its a different world than it was say in 08. the broads have had a good correction , gold has risen. everything is still being valued in terms of dollars, that will change. fiats days are numbered. its a slow process.

yesterday felt like capitulation. it was a redeux of 1478 gold. some panic before the take off. top callers are always out there. do your own work. listen to others if you like, but do your own work. its your money. know what you are doing. sure gold will have rallies, it will also have declines. in the end , riding will prove the most profitable. this bull still has many stages to go through. its a process.

 

year to date chart , relative performance of all commodities

http://finviz.com./futures_performance.ashx?v=17

dharma

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<H3 class=byline></H3>On Thursday, the newest tenant in Donald Trump's 40 Wall Street, a 70-story skyscraper in Manhattan's Financial District, will hand Mr. Trump a security deposit worth about $176,000. No money will change hands—just three 32-ounce bars of gold, each about the size of a television remote control.

 

The occasion will mark the first time the Trump Organization has accepted 99.9% pure gold bullion, rather than cash, as a deposit on a commercial lease. The tenant, precious-metals dealer Apmex, will sign a 10-year lease for 40 Wall's 50th floor at a leasing rate of about $50 a square foot, according to ...

 

 

 

can't seem to hyperlink...online.wsj...

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903532804576569071541880208.html?KEYWORDS=donald+trump

 

 

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On a long term chart, looking back from the future, silver action will appear as a spike low if this keeps up. Gold never really confirmed the silver sell off and it too (gold) is recovering something fierce. Dip and bargain hunters showed up at the blue light special sale.

 

Must be the volatility that has been expected as traders keep rushing to either side of the ship. First buying equities then selling to buy dollars then selling dollars to buy back equities. In the meantime, nothing has really changed as debt keeps piling up and Euroland has promised to flood the markets with money to front run any defaulting or exits from its membership. This somehow calms the markets and drives them up but will devalue the currency as it affects confidence which shows up in the gold chart on an ever extending trend up.

 

Try not to get rattled out of your mining positions. The pain only lasted a couple days this time.

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the show is tomorrow @2:15 ny time. this is all sound and fury. honestly i dont know what to expect from the fed, sure longer term they are going to debase. right here right now, i dont know, though i suspect they will continue to debase the dollar. after all , it has been going on since the feds inception. and has accelerated since w. ben has been put in , as fed head , to debase. it is philosophy.

my charts, the seasonals, and the amount of capital being poured into the mining sector to build infrastructure, indicates to me that we are going higher here, and maybe alot higher. we backtested support yesterday, and took off this am.

i am satisfied w/my positions so i am in hold mode. over the last 10 years the price of gold has gone from 250 to 1800 today. miners have not appreciated to the extent that gold has, no i do not think mining is a bad biz. i think it is an unrecognized potential. in the last phase of the bull , the miners will get some mojo. patience. recognition is coming.

today gold is up 25 , now compared to 250 that is 10% move from the lows, volatility is increasing and it will increase alot more. i dont think this is a trend, but crude remains weak , which will be a boon to miners. down the inflationary road, oil will take on a life of its own. as will the broad stock market.

we are in the early innings of the sovereign debt crises, do not take your eye off that ball. all the talk is a distraction. rabbits are not pulled out of hats. these sovereigns , especially the ones in the euro will not be able to inflate the debt away, it will never ever be repaid. germany, after ww1 was saddled w/rebuilding the country and paying back war reparations. as industrious as the german people are , they could not pay off both. the situation led to hitler and a morally and financially bankrupt nation. one by one these debt ridden sovereigns will default. and that is the issue

compound that w/ banks that are not marking their holdings to market. and the facade of a healthy banking sector is presented. when the sovereigns and the banks are hitting the skids fear of survival, base fear will be present. game will be on for the precious. that is blue skies for the metals. it will be tough , but when there is only blue skies it will be time to find the exit. its the same cycle over and over again. the question is where do i put my resources then!!!??? for now it doesnt take much vision to see all this happening. back in 01 etc it did. now not

patience

keep your eyes on the sovereigns and the banks it is a facade!

dharma

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Miners:

 

The trend whereby the miners underperformed bullion appears to have been broken.

post-1352-13165768074599.png

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Miners:

 

The trend whereby the miners underperformed bullion appears to have been broken.

yeh,

 

and that may not necessarily bode well for the price of the metal over the intermediate term...

 

huge pivot break on Gold hourly chart yesterday...

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yeh,

 

and that may not necessarily bode well for the price of the metal over the intermediate term...

 

huge pivot break on Gold hourly chart yesterday...

sharp counter trend breaks are to be bought

gold went from 1900 to 1700 in 2 days on the last move down and back to 1900 again. i suspect we see something similar here. i have turns the 23/26th . tomorrow the bottom

dharma

my 2c

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Without a spot spike low (means an instant recovery) a consolidation has to take place with all the damage done and that is not considering it could go lower, much lower. Miners are back to how low can they go.

 

Chesapeake Gold was making a move looking for a partner or buy out even though they confirmed a more expensive process to extract (or release) over 90% of entrapped metals in their rocks.

 

HL is going to offer a dividend, they waited to long to put it in effect.

 

I don't hold out much hope for TRX.

 

RGLD had a lot of room to retrace and did.

 

Deflation continues until another round of money pumping. The US bond shuffling maturity dates only temporarily helps Euroland out then that fiasco continues, doesn't do anything for pumping US markets.

 

US$ consolidating, probably goes higher from here.

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Should find support around here.

 

Here's some confirmation...

Gold Bubble Bursts

Gold crashed more than $US100 on Friday as a slide turned into a free fall, with weeks of volatility, renewed strength in the US dollar and talk of hedge fund liquidation wrecking its safe-haven status.

 

The slide made the two-day plunge for the yellow metal the deepest since 1983. Silver fared just as badly with futures posting their worst day since 1987.

...

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Seems to me we are at critical levels in spot and miners for the short and mid terms. Somewhere around $1630, spot needs to hold when September trading ends on Friday. A close below it and we probably get a continuation of this correction for about a year. A close above it and you get a couple more months to get out at higher and decent levels before a 'make a grown man cry' correction begins, lasting for about a year. Maybe that 4th wave down is due.

 

Without the money pumping (or maybe all the pumping is aimed at Euroland) the stock markets just have no reason to move up in a meaningful fashion, not even to keep up with inflation except the few stocks that can give dividends that are more than government bonds can offer, plus those companies would have to be setup overseas somewhere to maintain any profit margins.

 

One can only hope that something happens to allow gold to release to the up side or it will just be the wandering on down with the occasional short lived rallies until all the technical damage is worked off. A close below the recent low will confirm more pain ahead.

 

Cash is a position even at low interests rates, better than holding losing stock positions. A miracle close above the recent all time high in spot would be the only saving grace for the short and mid terms, since it would probably continue on up from there. There is the possibility that miners get so cheap in the next couple of weeks that banksters switch and go long and buy everything in sight and force the late comers to buy high, then the banksters pull the rug out from under selling for profits and crashing prices again.

 

There is also the possibility that O'bummer will lose the healthcare mandate to the Supremes in a ruling going against him where he is unelectable from that point on and goes into a slash and burn policy before he has to leave office. How he could do or be any worse, I'm sure he will find a way. How Congress and the markets would react, I don't know. Even if O'bummer wins the case, things will get worse. Debt, debt and more debt with interest payments going overseas and not coming back into the US conomy.

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