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Charmin

Monthly Digger - June 2011

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I don't know, I already added miners at a little lower levels, thinking miners wouldn't see those levels again. So far as of today it is a retest of the low on the 13-14th depending how you look at it. Of course tomorrow is another day. Did/still hold some cash for more buying opportunities just hope to avoid a crash or it will reset the charts with another corrective or base building phase.

 

I hold NGD as a core along with HL both producers and NG technically as a long shot as it is not producing. It has helped more than anything trading parts of all of them as taking profits time to time is better than holding through. Nothing moves in a straight line. Anyway, reloaded on all three of them and gave them equal weight (same share count).

 

Some miners seem to have a gap above rather than below now from current pricing.

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NGD has held up well it appears. Any thoughts on this one?

 

Charmin I am long via physical Gold have a few bucks play money. I have limited my attention to UXG. I like the fact that McEwen owns a bunch and has a great history so far.

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similiar situation to 08bottom, gold making new lows. miners holding their low. 1495 and the round #for support . watching @the edge of my chair here. will start buying if the miners remain firm.

dharma

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the present situation is reminiscent of 08. you have gold making new lows and the miners not. in fact the mining indexes are sporting daily rsi (i use wilder 9 bar and have for over 30years) divergences. this is normal corrective action. and on a relative basis gld/hui, gld/xau, gld/gdx are the 2nd lowest they have been since the start of the bull. i am about all in after today. there are astro turns in the metals the 27/28th so i am looking for a turn over the next 3market days.

w/the presidential cycle etc it is too early for the turn to take place

here is a little study that i did:

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_...reelection.html

dollar

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_...reelection.html

bonds

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_...reelection.html

gold

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html

 

comments anyone?!

the 22month cycle in gold is due to top between aug/oct. which coincides w/that study i presented above.

of course i could be wrong. but i have my money where my mouth is.

we shall see

it also occurred to me w/the debt ceiling in place, what better ploy can the govt have then sell its strategic reserve oil, raise some capital and appear as the savior for higher oil prices. ahhh saving us again!!

lastly, while the metrics for inflation are true. there are other factors which can come into play. such as, drought or unfavorable conditions for food prices. i happen to think armstrong is a genius and in one of his pieces on the economic confidence model, he says that we are in for 7 years of unfavorable conditions for growing food. so, it may not be monetary conditions alone which lead to inflation/stagflation. i am in the stagflation camp. until i see them just open the spigots.the deflationary pressure is really great, its going to take gargantuan amounts of money to ease that pressue. the qes have only stalled the inevitable for now

armstrong

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/June1...006-14-2011.pdf

worth the read, even if you dont agree. his economic confidence model is calling for a rise till 2015 , which coincides w/the major top i see for gold

. i have never seen a bull on any chart end any other way but a parabolic blowoff! silver's highs @roughly 50 recently was not long enough in time to be a parabolic. in 80 the metals parabolic was approximately 5 months. i am looking for the next one to be 8 months, and if it stetches, 13months. that will mean things are really really bad.

hulbert http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/...-excited-about/

 

dharma

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Still about 70% cash trading port and 10% cash in long term account. Agree that miners led gold out of 08 crash. Thinking gold does a big correction into early August, but afraid general market may see big correction in July, and still drag miners further. May sell another 20% in long term port now, just for peace of mind, they may not go a lot lower, but miners always get whacked more than I think, Tentative plan is to start getting back into miners around mid July (hoping they lead gold again). If no crazy black swans, still see gold and miners higher then present levels at end of year.

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(you have some bad links there dharma)

 

For miners typically it would be buy the last week of August and sell the first week of December with a quick high in July and quick low in October. The election year seems to help as it's free money for everyone to garner votes. Doesn't seem to be much different this time around either.

 

Instead of a drought here in the US, we have a wet year with flooding which will not allow wheat to be planted so a lower overall harvest. Does give you soil replenishment from all the silts.

 

In spot the waterfall continues, have to wait and see how the miners act from their current levels.

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Completed buying UXG today. Might be possible they pounded all they can pound out of a lot of the mining shares. Not a bad day considering Gold never really threatened higher all day.

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post-1024-13092765586602.jpg

 

Looking range bound to me. Without breaking the chart high or low, this is typical action.

Miners I might have did buying on the left side of some sort of 'W' pattern.

Get through the next 30 days without a crash then sit back and relax.

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dharma nice call on the 27-28th. Let's see if it has any real legs. Damn near everyone is looking for another leg down into mid late July or August. Maybe we get a large upside surprise.

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dharma nice call on the 27-28th. Let's see if it has any real legs. Damn near everyone is looking for another leg down into mid late July or August. Maybe we get a large upside surprise.

astro dates, gann was very mystical!

tfh-

 

dollar rallies are counter trend, they will tend to fall short of targets.

contrarians hulbert

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contraria...gold-2011-06-28

yes, the good fight, lower the tax rate on coins

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/5209...-coins.html.csp

eu w/greece holds together for now. w/these high interest rates, they will never be able to pay. it will happen again. next time will greece be invited to stay in the party? ireland?portugal? spain? how long will the french and germans be willing to pay for the greek lifestyle?

i can be very patient. . for the last 100 yrs, since the inception of the fed , the dollar has lost 90%of its pp. any doubt of what the fed will try to do? they have done it for 100yrs.

@present the us is selling assets 60million barrels of oil.

support 1495 w/ a band of resistance till 1513 above that and its game on.

1531 comes into play. any doubts about the feds intention to destroy the pp of the currency?

dharma

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