Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Charmin

Monthly Digger - June 2011

Recommended Posts

I was traveling across Kansas and on a good day the wind was brutal. I wasn't traveling into the wind but it was harder to keep my vehicle on the road. Between Denver and New England I saw a lot of road kill. I got stuck in a massive traffic jam because of construction near Erie, Pennsylvania so I decided to take another route across the northern section of that state before heading up to the New York thruway. At one point I made a shortcut in Pennsylvania. That was the worst seven miles of pavement I've ever seen in my life. Bernanke's dollar drop didn't make it here. For some of the cities I saw along the way it might be more than a day late and a dollar short.

 

AUY has been moving sideways below the Dec. 7, 2010 high, and touches down on the 50 bar moving average on occasion.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/AUY_06_04_21_04_1307235897.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Waiting for the parabolic to commence, like every month, and then it never happens and in fact your miners rarely go up in value while spot gold just does a steady climb should convince you need conformation from the US$ and/or the US bonds/treasuries for this sector to take off. Regular markets crashing usually weigh this sector down. Cores only insure you don't miss an overnight calamity leading to a parabolic event.

 

For a reminder, cash is a position and taking profits on a near or mid term high is a good thing. A .72 on the US dollar chart will be a warning. Banks going broke again won't mean as much since governments (States and Federal) own most of the debt now. For the private sector, deflation is actually a good thing and necessary but not so for banks.

 

I'm still about 30% cash and waiting for any possible mid June lows to buy some bargains but won't fully commit because any lows would bring more corrective action, I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Classic Miner smack down, My UXG down 45% from April highs, I am 60% cash in trading port, and only 10% cash in long term taxable port,. Will hold here. Looking for another 20% smack down in next 4 weeks, but expect this fall to be back to highs. Decided to quit my job anyway. Will be off to the north for the summer in the RV. Found a place for $300/month includes electric. Gold Miner Smack down will be a blessing, Will roll over my company 401K (with no gold options) into tradeable brokerage account, maybe get some $15 GORO and $20 ANV in July for the next big run. Carpe diem!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HUI:

 

If my Elliott count (as a running or expanded flat shown as green ABC) is correct, we should be bottoming around 490-500.

 

If not, there's a possible H&S looming.

post-1352-13075905771068.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yesterday hui was the only index to make lower lows , none of the others did

hulbert says sentiment is quite bullish for gold

1549 is the resistance , which has been quite formidable

time is running out.

armstrongs date is the 13-14th

what happens next?

dharma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next few days we get a

 

a)dead cat bounce in miners

b)decent bounce

c)rally

 

Whatever I will be raising cash when the slow stochs manage to go above 80% and when coming down again

In the oposite case I will be raising cash too -time is up-

 

Gold may make a new high week of 21 june -maybe-maybe not-

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yesterday hui was the only index to make lower lows , none of the others did

hulbert says sentiment is quite bullish for gold

1549 is the resistance , which has been quite formidable

time is running out.

armstrongs date is the 13-14th

what happens next?

dharma

 

 

Unless I read Armstrong's last PDF incorrectly he said the only market that could possibly be making a mjor top or bottom mid June would be interest rates. Gold and Silver are off the table so even if we see lower prices for Gold and Silver beneath this week's lows it would not necessarily be a truning point low. I think we run down in the metals on balance till near the end of July. Should be a good buying opp especially in physical if you have new funds to invest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Armstrong has a June 5th writing out, seems the US$ is more resilient compared to other currencies. Anyway, a yawner so far but looks like Armstrong's confidence model appears in sync as talk of interest rates rising is happening which will force investment away from the government bonds and seeking out better private sector returns.

 

I'd say more sideways correction or base building in the miners (gold and silver) and typical seasonal upward activity starting in August. Buying and holding miners won't hurt as much now as gold does a steady climb. October worries me but I can't project out that far and have to watch the short term formations to make decisions. Long term trends are obviously up.

 

Need large volume in this sector with big money but isn't happening per summer vacations. Probably go to 15% cash as some miners come to a buy zone. This sector is not stable enough for me yet to use the other 15% cash I have waiting.

 

I'm not much of a history buff but the freedom to hold guns like here in the US, the Swiss and Israel (where military training is mandatory and the population is issued guns and really is a militia) plus a few others, doesn't jive with past history in a certain sense. More like an unknown factor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HUI:

 

Weekly chart for 3 years.

 

Stochastic set at 5,3,3 instead of standard 14.3.3 to produce faster oscillations.

post-1352-13078511297768.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The correct setting assuming a 15 week cycle would be

7.3.3 for the cycle (set at half cycle )

and 3.3.3 for the half subcycle

 

Always set at half cycle and then look at full cycle

 

I wish Bontchev was around ( been so many years I am not even sure I spell the name right )

 

In my opinion if there is a high it has to happen on the

10 th market day from today ( or thereabouts like the Crier selling Oliver was singing )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wish I had listen to Bontchev around the end of '05 when he was warning of a correction as the gold chart couldn't support itself on that rise according to him. Later on I did sell but way late into the correction.

 

October might come early if the regular markets begin tanking now since there is no new money on the immediate horizon to prop them up. The commodity spikes 3 to 6 months ago are just now showing up in prices on the shelf but RE continues to deflate.

 

Either the Federal Reserve kicks the can down the road by raising % rates or tries another pump of money, doesn't much matter towards the end result maybe just for the coming election results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did some light buying along with any low ball bids that hit like in NGD NG HL

 

 

Sound tactical move

Most miners I track are Dover Sole on my daily slow stoch settings

 

China Gold went way south ( I do not own it , thanks for small gifts of the gods )

 

Lets see now if they can crawl up or stay in the dirt till august :angry2:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!



Old Stool Depository


The Wall Street Examiner
Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner
Contact Us




Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com.
×