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Charmin

Monthly Digger - May 2011

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$1530 area is the breakout or re-breakout area for gold. If that area holds (no break away) then it will create a sideways trading channel. Vacations usually start about now so if $1530 holds and there is not a confirmation closing above then after Wednesday I don't think there will be any volume around to drive it higher, in fact gold will probably get beat up on in the following weeks. Wednesday the 25th could be a some type of short term turn date.

 

As an example, 50/50 stocks/cash positions wouldn't hurt much unless the US$ finally breaks .72 and with the Euro making the dollar look good, this rally strength in the dollar chart should hold a little longer. Long term you know the US$ is toast. Gold would have to make a $100 run soon to make an impression.

 

As far as Armstrong goes short term, he is waiting for conformation of a high or low mid June. A low would be better preparation for a launch according to him and a high would create a need for some type of correction. He doesn't say anything about going sideways (no high or low). No matter, his Economic Confident Model says start to short the government returns and long the corporate returns as the public begins looking for better returns on their investments and/or when parking money.

 

Mining stocks lack any buyers as of late except for the long buyers.

 

You are writing what Armstrong suspects. Better to know the model system as for example oil might be THE best investment.

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the dollar is up and euro is taking a hit

today is monday

all fiats are paper promises. there is no intrinsic worth. its only a promise. so relative to each other anything can happen.

the cots are bullish especially for silver. i am still awaiting a close over 1513. then 1531 for game on. yes there are fib points between here and 1531. i go by market parameters that i have. you can feel the deflationary tug , it is palatable. yes qe2 will end, but the line of qes no matter what they are called will continue. otherwise we are starring down the rabbit hole. gold will still do well in a deflation. cycles pointing up till near the end of june/early july. so , i defer to the cycles.

the broads are in trouble. bonds will get a respite here as the johnny come lately seek the protection of bonds. hey bonds have been in a bull for 31 years.

cbs hold gold. so should i. and their stash keeps growing.

gold in euros remains firm. i would like to see a breakout in that chart to bring in more buyers. remember gold is traded in all currencies, not just dollars.

we may get that soon.

if anyone knows how to post charts, that chart would interest alot of people

dharma

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Gold made a marginal new high in euro

Seems only Swissie and Dollar are not

near new gold highs

 

http://www.goldchartsrus.com/

 

I like to look at my euro chart in end of day

mode

post-1584-13061694851238.gif

post-1584-13061694852164.gif

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Sorry

I don't seem to be able to remove one of the identical charts :angry2:

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You are writing what Armstrong suspects. Better to know the model system as for example oil might be THE best investment.

 

You mean the energy sector and not just oil correct?

 

Armstrong has converted human nature to a historical cyclical basis with the same endings causing resets to repeat again and again. Greed, power, destruction, greed power, destruction usually reflected in the monetary systems in vogue at the time. Within the cycles, things rattle around, like foods, governments, wars, weather, earth along with that human nature thing. The long term trends he suspects repeat. As with everyone else who tries to make a call it's the short term timings that are tough.

 

If everyone decides to fore-go their summer vacations and trade this sector then it could get interesting.

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The definition of short term is a bit uncertain with somebody who takes the year 200-300 bc in his stride.

Grosso modo I find no problem seeing 11 and 22 months relative high cycles with an occasional 50% harmonic extension in dollar gold

 

On the other hand I do not know if the Chinese have vacations and there is a lot more Chines with a lot more of dollar reserves they want to diversify away ( on gold , unfortunately not on miners )

 

In Europe vacations are roughly july and august but with a peak in july .I think most have 4 weeks of vacation plus extra legal days and most take 2 or 3 weeks of vacation in july/august.Witness are hotel prices that drop up to 20% starting the last week of august and september .

 

So for Europe vacation wise July and half of August are slow.

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Nice bit of news from my largest holding.

 

http://finance.yahoo...9.html?x=0&.v=1

 

 

SOUTH SURREY, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Tanzanian Royalty Exploration is pleased to announce that it has completed a detailed review of a previously completed but non-reported reconnaissance pitting program on its Buziba West Prospect in northern Tanzania.

 

Buziba West forms part of the Company’s recently acquired Buckreef Gold Mine Re-development Project in Tanzania. The original pitting program was conducted by the State Mining Corporation (Stamico) of Tanzania, the Company’s joint venture partner in the advanced stage Buckreef Gold Project.

 

The Buziba West surface rubble pitting program included 53 pits on a spacing of 100 metres x 100 metres, covering a total area of 0.24 square kilometres. Historical records indicate that the pitting program was completed in 1986.

 

The program identified a potentially economic, sub-surface, high grade gold-bearing quartz rubble bed that returned a weighted average sample grade of 9.23g/t gold with an average thickness of 1.03 metres. The eastern extension of this surface rubble bed has yet to be investigated.

 

 

Year chart

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i want to point out some key points that i keep my attention on:

the fed is an engine of inflation

all cbs are printing , monetizing their debt.

fiat is all confetti

valuing your wealth in fiat is a giant mistake

bernake has studied the great depression , he will not make the same mistake they made back then

fiat will rally one against the other,its all a mirage an illusion.

the fed wants the dollar lower(dont fight the fed)

dollar is in a downtrend, currencies go into trends for decades

 

so here we, i am sure that i am forgetting some, but you catch my drift.

gold = money fiat =debt

@times i want to be all in the precious metals and @times i want to lighten my position.

shorting a bull is a mistake

going long the dollar is a mistake.

yes, there are some talented traders who will be able to negotiate counter trend, for most it is a futile attempt.

here and now , starting tomorrow, i am looking for a pm run. till some time in june. there is so much action in june i am not going to stick to my

cycle. and i do believe that this will be the last run before a more significant correction. so, my focus will be on raising cash. i did some buying , the other day on weakness. from here on out i will sell strength . starting next week.. there is a larger correction in store after this top

there are so many possibilities for this top. i want to be open minded and see what the market gives. but, there will be a back up the truck event occurring, and i want to have cash for the event.

new highs on this leg are not out of the question. jimmys 1650 is in range for this leg. i have no idea what is going to cause this run. but, w/o looking to far , its easy to see lots of possibilities.

dharma

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Gold acting like a cash position more and more everyday. Miners still acting like stocks, that will change as miners will begin acting like cash positions also but not yet. Take note of any miners treading water or in the green at the close today probably will be the stronger mining stocks in the long run.

 

If the story is true that the US reneged on a gold transfer/payment to the IMF then it is just one of the many defaults to come while anyone that gets in the way is snuffed out like a bug that even Russia takes notice. There is not enough gold production in the world in the coming decades for China or any other country to acquire to match the stated gold reserves the US has now. It is more likely that the Fort Knox gold was loaned out on paper to the big banks to short gold and the banks are in losing positions. Banks should be asking for another bailout about now (money pump from the US Treasury via the Federal Reserve).

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saw that yesterday, what do you make of that. i thought it was common knowledge that the vault is empty

dharma

 

 

stuff like this scares TSOOM. I just don't wanna say anything...to anyone.

 

I think it's certainly plausible and more correct than most MSM these days, but then again i'm just a retail sheeple.

 

I was under the same impression...

 

Heard last week or so on KWN, Mexican Pres Salinas say he thought DSK was setup and also that he was now scared for his own life since talking about taking mexico on a silver standard. gaddafi wanted to trade oil for gold, saddam oil for euro...can't mess with the USD it seems.

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I was on the road and not able to start a new monthly digger for June without internet access. Sorry for the delay. I guess my message to Doc didn't get through. I'll start one shortly.

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