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Charmin

Monthly Digger - May 2011

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Oh I agree but my TNX.to had become a double position and I only paired it back to a normal

full position.

ageka- i like when we are on the same page, it makes me feel like i am doing my homework correctly! :lol:

this is starting to look and feel like the top in 06 to me anyway

this piece by sam zell speaks volumes to me

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000021990

dharma

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ageka- i like when we are on the same page, it makes me feel like i am doing my homework correctly! :lol:

this is starting to look and feel like the top in 06 to me anyway

this piece by sam zell speaks volumes to me

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000021990

dharma

 

In january I decided it was 2005-2006 allover or it was more then a 4 sigma event at 5% chance of being something new . But my alternative was 99.7% with the same top in june making it a 6 sigma event with only 0.3% chance of being wrong

( Still much higher chance of being wrong then winning the lotto though )

I like the odds but money management makes me raise some cash

 

I allways do my homework three times to be sure :lol: I made the same mistake at least three times :lol:

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Mark Hanson May, 10 2011 sums up real estate in a couple of paragraphs with a time frame.

 

That Gann site sounds like they are expecting a major leg down. If you read Armstrong, he says a major leg down doesn't necessarily have to hit major low targets. Just going sideways and not traveling in a large trading range for months or years could be considered a correction. It will take guts to hold short through this coming Aug/Sept period. Any volatility technically has a $1,000 range to travel in when looking at spot gold. Most miners seem to be in the middle of their highs and lows now, more retracement is not totally necessary.

 

If I was shorting miners I would be careful after 0ct/Nov of this year, they could take off and catch you wrong footed. I think some highs last December or even around last October started the clock ticking for a downward correction in the miners regardless of what spots are doing.

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In january I decided it was 2005-2006 allover or it was more then a 4 sigma event at 5% chance of being something new . But my alternative was 99.7% with the same top in june making it a 6 sigma event with only 0.3% chance of being wrong

( Still much higher chance of being wrong then winning the lotto though )

I like the odds but money management makes me raise some cash

 

I allways do my homework three times to be sure :lol: I made the same mistake at least three times :lol:

w/you ageka it sure looks like 06. miners are @their lowest level relative to gold since 08 gld/xau. gld/hui, gld/gdx are all screaming to be bought. the miners have taken a drubbing. i think over the summer we can see below 1300 gold.

dharma

 

whaddda -check out the track record of those gann guys. they make lots of noise.

i am a practicing student of gann.

look @oil- supply from iraq and libya have been taken off the market. and demand continues to be robust from chindia and the west demand remains firm.

last i looked people have not figured out how to live w/o eating.

i suggest you attach your wagon to another star.

the fed is hell bent on destroying the dollar. for the last 9years the dollar has been entrenched in a down trend. which means holders of dollars lose pp. ben was put in there to inflate. and although qe2 is ending . they will be forced to start some other form of qe. he is not going to rip off his mask and become volker.the govt is the largest debtor, and it is in their interest to make it less costly to pay back the debt. i am on the other side of that. i lose pp by holding dollars.

yes the metals go up and down. it is from my vantage the only way to protect myself from loss of pp

dharma

 

slight shades of gold majestic

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MMM there must be something wrong with your weighing scale :rolleyes:

Metals do not go up nor down :glare:

100 ounces will always be 100 ounces unless they change it to short ounces / grams :angry2:

Now it is 31.1 grams to the ounce but they could make it 27 grams like the spanish

gold coins from the spanish mint are nowadays and uninformed people may think it is an ounce they are buying :ninja:

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GOLD;

 

Could make a run to new highs.

post-1352-13059488794903.png

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Since January I have been seeing a high in dollar gold for the third week of June

Exactly one week after Armstrong saw his low

I am still curious to see whether I did better then Armstrong but I think I have 95% chance ( calculated in january ) that I do better .

Anyway this week my euro gold was in an all time high since december last year . So I do not really care what the dollar price is anyway . I live in Euro land :glare:

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check out these cots

http://www.321gold.com/cot_gold.html

http://www.321gold.com/cot_silver.html

not bad ,

 

john williams

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN...r_Collapse.html

man that is ugly as it gets

 

ageka- i have the high (calculated awhile back)the 1st week of july. i am not married to any of this, i base my trading on it. but,if things get rocky around the bradley turns i will start peeling stuff back. @these last lows, the bearishness so thick you could cut it w/a knife i went to 20% margin. while everyone was hollering for 28silver i was buying slv. the cot is bullish.

i am very curious to see how this plays out. armstrong calling for lows around the 12-13th and my stuff calling for highs end of june/beginning of july. and ageka calling for a top 3rd week of june.

1750 happens to be a target, which i believe sinclair's 1750 angel got lit up

after this high, i am looking for a good pull back. a back up the truck opportunity

dharma

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Of course the market is allways right but for harmonics and symmetry reasons my high has to be somewhere in June with the highest probability in the third week of June . I expect the HUI to make a relative miserable dead cat bounce a week earlier.This year I have been in the grip of the dollar sofar .Whatever , if there is a bounce I will raise my cash from 7.5% today by selling the weakest miner I got .

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$1530 area is the breakout or re-breakout area for gold. If that area holds (no break away) then it will create a sideways trading channel. Vacations usually start about now so if $1530 holds and there is not a confirmation closing above then after Wednesday I don't think there will be any volume around to drive it higher, in fact gold will probably get beat up on in the following weeks. Wednesday the 25th could be a some type of short term turn date.

 

As an example, 50/50 stocks/cash positions wouldn't hurt much unless the US$ finally breaks .72 and with the Euro making the dollar look good, this rally strength in the dollar chart should hold a little longer. Long term you know the US$ is toast. Gold would have to make a $100 run soon to make an impression.

 

As far as Armstrong goes short term, he is waiting for conformation of a high or low mid June. A low would be better preparation for a launch according to him and a high would create a need for some type of correction. He doesn't say anything about going sideways (no high or low). No matter, his Economic Confident Model says start to short the government returns and long the corporate returns as the public begins looking for better returns on their investments and/or when parking money.

 

Mining stocks lack any buyers as of late except for the long buyers.

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