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Charmin

Monthly Digger - April 2011

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The falling U.S. Dollar ... is it a good or bad event?

 

A dropping Dollar is considered an advantage for U.S. firms that trade internationally.

 

But, could a falling Dollar turn into a U.S. confidence crisis?

 

The answer is Yes. While a falling Dollar is good for U.S. exports, there is a point where a good thing could turn ugly.

 

Take a quick look at today's Dollar chart and you will see where that point is.

 

Where we are now ...

 

Note that the Dollar is now below its 74.21 support level ... and there are no more supports until it gets down to 71.31. So now, the Dollar should continue to fall and that will be good for our stock market and for exports.

 

However, as the Dollar starts to approach the 71.31 level, glee will turn to worry as investors start to wonder if the Dollar and can make a double bottom (at 71.31) ... or if it will plunge below that support and go into free fall.

 

It is very hard for anyone to imagine the Dollar not holding that double bottom, but if Congress doesn't wake up soon, stop trying to satisfy lobbyist, and start making decisions for its citizens and economy, then the Dollar will judge them harshly.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

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when do the silver shorts throw in the towel?

jpm and hsbc are on the hot seat. i suspect they continue to press the shorts

dharma

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a bull market climbs a wall of worry and the miners ae an area where guys are focusing. hopefully, you are worried , but not out of the bull market.

i keep thinking of the nervous tone in bens voice @his opening night gala! it was clear to me in his statements that :

the dollar was not his concern, he laid that one on timmy, thus throwing the dollar under the bus

the large banks, whom be essentially works for are not making money in this environment,so creating "a little inflation" will be the name of the game.

yes, a little inflation. good luck w/that

then there is china holders of 3trillion dollars. the fed seems to have sent them a message. the inflation they are experiencing in part is due to the yuan being tied @the hip to the dolar. it would not surprise me in the least if @some point down the road, they re pegged the yuan. which, would send the metals aloft

 

be dubious of junior technicians. frightening you out of positions. there are quite a few fires smoldering. yes, there will be pauses , yes there will be corrections, but this leg has more to go. my work shows this topping late june/early july.

could you be wrong? absolutely

what will you do if you are wrong? sell mortimer , sell. not touching core positions , but trading positions

what if this time is different, and the miners remain stuck in the mud? i will be surprised! what does that mean? absolutely nothing. i dont bet on anomalies. i bet w/history. if the miners dont participate now or later. then i too will have missed an opportunity. 60%of my $$$ is in miners. 40%in metal. the reason i am playing it like that , is last time the miners out performed the metal. and i fully expect that to happen again. i have taken away my miscroscope and sitting back and looking @the big picture. if the cb is not going to stand behind the dollar, the who is? the cb answers to the banksters. not you and i .

when the public wakes up, the dollar will have lost significant pp!!!!!! talking to friends and colleagues. the public is unaware that holding money in cash is a losing proposition. they are unaware that the dollar is buying them less. they havent put it together. inspite of the price @the pump or in the supermarket. the banksters count on stupidity. they bank on it!!!

dharma

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Fully invested and waiting

Allthough the picture in Euro is a lot worse then in Dollars

(prices still way below december on miners and slightly down for physical gold )

 

There are like four mayor banks in Belgium

I read one is saying sell gold it should be half of todays price . The other three are more or less neutral . Our consumer groups magazine for investment says 5% may be in a well devirsified portfolio .

Wow what exhuberance for gold in euro .

We are still in stealth mode ( unbelievable )

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Stealth mode is not surprising. Sinclair has said numerous times that the big money would push these markets (physical) higher. I doubt the public will particiapte in any meaningful way. Nobody talks about the metals. Never have.

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April showers bring May flowers. I'd like to see a continued shine from the metal.

 

May Monthly Digger is ready for posting.

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