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Charmin

Monthly Digger - January 2011

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Watching very closely here. If this doesn't hold, I expect quite a bit lower. And I suppose I prefer that. What an incredible opportunity that would be. Even here I expect will be looked back on as having been a great opportunity some months from now. Nothing has changed and we know the ending to this story. B)

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Saw charts with head and shoulders all over the place last night, and finally decided to sell 10-20% of my port. I put my limit orders in to sell 10-20% last night. Figures all hll would break lose this morning, most of my orders didn't fill. Lowered some and sold a little in the afternoon. I'm now assuming everything is going to at least the 200ma. I'm definitely buying back my GORO and UXG, but waiting for the 200ma to be hit. Amazing how they keep doing these 40% smack downs in gold shares. I'm such a slow learner. Should have sold juniors when the majors got hit 1st week in Jan. AEM hit 200 today. GDXJ looks about week or two behind before its hits the 200ma. Will try to get couple of days of higher highs and higher lows before jumping back in. Also, there could be a fake bounce then the broads get hit, and the miners fall further, but still anticipating a big gold rise after this low, maybe 2-4 months?

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Lucky for buying and selling, nothing ever moves in a straight line even trend lines get broken. 20% cash means you are 80% in stocks, not a bad number. I'm around 15% cash.

 

Looking for another bounce here. Whether it's a lower high I don't know. Watching NG where it has a gap around $12.25. If it fills on a spike low then I'd say the correction is over. If fills and stays down on the close then I'd say more downward action. Either way, need some bottoming action to build a base again.

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h&s patterns occur @major tops and bottoms. those that you are looking @are paintings. it takes months and even years for h&s patterns to occur. read edwards maghee. as an example bonds made their low in 81 and in 84 they made the right shoulder. fast foward to today. bonds are in a large topping pattern here. the feds announcement of their buying bonds may very well have been the signal the jig is up on the bonds

we are bottoming here

1341 price breaks into the last cycle. and the battle begins.1325 the death zone for the decline

comex raises margins on the metals and other things to disguise their intent, which they did today

2 observations

1 . the miners are reflecting prices of 100 lower gold prices. the miners have been hit much harder than the metals. majors are selling for 10-11pe s. way undervalued

2.the investors in this sector do not really believe in the miners. they sell them for ridiculous valuations. if last time was any indication. @some point , that will change. these things will sell like internet stocks only w/earnings.

i am looking @the 25th for the turn. i am picking up select miners on the cheap. thank you

dharma

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Armstrong seems to have the best handle on things. He uses his cycles and fundamentals to come up with targets then starts charting daily, weekly, monthly events like with currencies because he has a good idea where they are going and charting shows him how they are going to get there.

 

With a lower high put in $1320 could now be resistance. Manipulators have to beat up on spots to get the mining shares to release. Worst or best case scenario (depending how you play it) would be about a 9 month bottoming from recent highs with some type of rally in March then further drifting down until June. I had the urge to buy back in and sell at the same time on yesterday's bounce. Didn't do either, still about 15% cash after today.

 

Certainly don't mean to tell you guys what to do. Just want to see investments protected by at least selling for profits (or taking the early loss). If you trade a lot it seems to be a better habit than holding through downturns. If I new a large correction was coming I would try for a 50% cash position because you never know if you'll need the mining shares in case all hell breaks loose with the banking system. Physical, you should have what you need by now for emergencies, any more would be extra insurance.

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Got to about 40% cash in trading port, and only 15% cash in Taxable port. Plan to sell a little bit more on the small bounce here, but another leg down should bring more miners lower, hitting at least the 200ma. Have some buy orders in just below the 200ma. Keeping an eye on the HUI for higher highs and higher lows for a turn around. Boy I hope its not a 8 month bottoming process again. Maybe this time we get some serious rotation into the miners after the broads get hit this spring.

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A curiosity, at least, how history rhymes, sometimes. The eve of the Shah's 1/16/79 exile from Iran marked gold's low for the year, a low never since retested.

 

post-2047-12963570218668.gif

 

I'm sure it was dharma who said he knew something was coming at this time for a sharp northbound turn window but that there was no way to know what beforehand. I believe the Mideast and other global unrest fits the bill. There is something cosmic to it. Like seeing around a blind corner. Or not quite seeing but knowing something is there without yet knowing what. Or, I suppose you could say that support held. Which may be only somewhat less cosmic. In any case, I'm loaded and holding. All I know is where this ends.

 

To glory, mates. B)

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the #s that i post are vibrational #s that are tuned to the gold market. 1325 is a key point. the market spent one day below it. these #s are not brick walls but are more like magnets. so, friday saw new lows followed by a snap back rally to test 1350. i think that there is a really good chance that the lows are in.

until the full moon there are quite a few astro setups which will be supportative to the market.

i dont think egypt will be the only cog that pops up.

there are 25 nations on this list

http://www.businessinsider.com/governments-food-price-inflation-2011-1?slop=1#slideshow-start

and that doesnt consider the european nations that drank the bankster kool aid of debt.

i am looking for new highs by mid/late march, if not sooner

skid , i have been buying also

i think oil prices will also be rising, which could pressure junior start ups.

dharma

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It's been a calm month. The empire of gold is still standing. They are turning their attention to the latest news. Come back for February's thread. It's now loaded and ready.

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