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...April-Jul 2010

 

But generally speaking...agreed...also ignoring the Nov '08 to Mar '09 shellacking

 

Dood! You gotta PAY ATTEMTION! You just proved my point. The Fed STOPPED adding to the SOMA at the end of 2009 and did not resume until the market plunged, beginning QL1.5 in August 2010. From that point it was up up and away again.

 

Here's the chart again.

 

iamge452.png

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Dood! You gotta PAY ATTEMTION! You just proved my point. The Fed STOPPED adding to the SOMA at the end of 2009 and did not resume until the market plunged, beginning QL1.5 in August 2010. From that point it was up up and away again.

 

Here's the chart again.

 

iamge452.png

 

 

Ah So !!!

 

post-6859-12936603598487.jpg

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Everyone supposedly running from muni's because of potential defaults but.......

 

There were five municipal bankruptcy filings in 2010, compared with more than 11,000 Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcy filings in 2009, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Similarly, the default rate for muni securities is also minuscule. From Jan. 1 to Dec. 1 this year, $4.25 billion of municipal debt was in default out $2.86 trillion in debt outstanding, a ratio of only 0.15%, BAML said

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101229-707573.html

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Everyone supposedly running from muni's because of potential defaults but.......

 

There were five municipal bankruptcy filings in 2010, compared with more than 11,000 Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcy filings in 2009, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Similarly, the default rate for muni securities is also minuscule. From Jan. 1 to Dec. 1 this year, $4.25 billion of municipal debt was in default out $2.86 trillion in debt outstanding, a ratio of only 0.15%, BAML said

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101229-707573.html

 

Tru dat...

 

...looks as though things can only get worse

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This'll prolly resonate with some here:

 

comments from: http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-december-29-2010-12

 

The 666 Retracement

 

Using DJIA highest close (14,164.53 on 2007-10-09) and lowest close (6,547.05 on 2009-03-09) and a .666 retracement we arrive at 11,620.29.

 

Using DJIA highest intraday (14,198.10 on 2007-10-11) and lowest intraday (6,469.95 on 2009-03-06) and a .666 retracement we arrive at 11,616.90.

 

These two values are very close to the level we are at today. Perhaps today is the day the lights went out?

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And NASDAQ 2666

 

The devils in the details.

 

 

 

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Tru dat...

 

...looks as though things can only get worse

 

Just about every bond I kept is backed by fully balanced budgets,decently funded pensions and AA credit on average.I actually read the entire prospectus for each and every bond I hold.Lumping them all together is like comparing MSFT bonds to a penny stocks bonds.

 

The whole argument made in the media is just silly,I would argue that my bonds are actually safer than treasuries or just about any other investment out there.But obviously there is tons of garbage around that is held and people don't even know what they even own.

 

 

Not going to touch funds anymore because of the above average risk on the crap they hold....unless we get to ridiculous discounts to NAV.

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Just about every bond I kept is backed by fully balanced budgets,decently funded pensions and AA credit on average.I actually read the entire prospectus for each and every bond I hold.Lumping them all together is like comparing MSFT bonds to a penny stocks bonds.

 

The whole argument made in the media is just silly,I would argue that my bonds are actually safer than treasuries or just about any other investment out there.But obviously there is tons of garbage around that is held and people don't even know what they even own.

 

 

Not going to touch funds anymore because of the above average risk on the crap they hold....unless we get to ridiculous discounts to NAV.

 

If the individual bonds are not at the local level, and not real sh^^ty states you're probably OK....you will more than likely get a hit to the market value (especially any longer dated bonds) as this stuff unfolds....but who cares, as long as they redeem at par.

 

Anyone in sh^t-town local muni's....well that's another story....pension haircuts before screwing the bond holders would be the smart move

 

Anyone in any muni bond fund is a douche

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If the individual bonds are not at the local level, and not real sh^^ty states you're probably OK....you will more than likely get a hit to the market value (especially any longer dated bonds) as this stuff unfolds....but who cares, as long as they redeem at par.

 

Anyone in sh^t-town local muni's....well that's another story....pension haircuts before screwing the bond holders would be the smart move

 

Anyone in any muni bond fund is a douche

I got a few longer term ones that got raped,and the strange thing is the better the bond the more it went down in many cases.

 

Whatever.....just collecting the interest now unless we get a huge bounce and I will lighten up a bit more.All my holdings are owned below par.

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Dood! You gotta PAY ATTEMTION! You just proved my point. The Fed STOPPED adding to the SOMA at the end of 2009 and did not resume until the market plunged, beginning QL1.5 in August 2010. From that point it was up up and away again.

 

Here's the chart again.

 

iamge452.png

 

Right. All they were buying was MBS. QEI was mostly that after all. Nothing to sniff at and it worked sometimes but nothing works like mainlining baby.

post-441-12936634929088.gif

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How can you be so calm. We just crashed. Over 3 S&P points in 5 minutes. The horror.

 

 

Now we are thinking along the right lines! A spectacular gap down and continued bloodletting ALL...DAY!!! Plunging, plunging and intraday gaps all the way straight down without so much as a swirly around the bowl...

 

Ya...that's the ticket!

 

I forgot half my bear lingualisms... :blink:

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