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Yet Another Learning Opportunity Regarding The Inner Game


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2B net add.

 

Temporary Open Market Operations: 02/06/2003

Maturity Date: 3/6/03

Delivery Date: 2/6/03

The Desk has entered the market announcing: 28 day RP

Temporary Operations Statistics:

Treasury Collateral Operation Agency Collateral Operation Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operation

Weighted Average Rate

1.222 1.260 NA

Stop Out Rate (Lowest Rate Accepted) 1.220 1.260 NA

Highest Rate Submitted 1.230 1.260 1.270

Lowest Rate Submitted 1.160 1.220 1.240

Total Propostions Submitted (In $Bil.) 26.800 20.850 13.500

Total Propositions Accepted (In $Bil.) 4.885 0.115 0.000

 

Total Money Value of Operation (In $Bil.) 5

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Dick Arms (developer of TRIN as you may already know) is pointing out that when the 10 day ma on the TRIN gets above 1.5 as it did recently, then rallies usually happen within a few days. This goes against a mountain of evidence for no rally. And just looking at the chart, it has gotten above 1.5, headed down, then gone above the 1.5 again, (as it did last Sept.),before any rally occurs. I'm betting it will do the same this time, before any rally. Is the old man reading too much into his own indicator?

 

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$TRIN,uu[l,a]dallnyay[dc][pb10!a.8][vc60]&pref=G

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2B net add.

 

Temporary Open Market Operations: 02/06/2003

Maturity Date: 3/6/03

Delivery Date: 2/6/03

The Desk has entered the market announcing: 28 day RP

Temporary Operations Statistics:

Treasury Collateral Operation Agency Collateral Operation Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operation

Weighted Average Rate

1.222 1.260 NA

Stop Out Rate (Lowest Rate Accepted) 1.220 1.260 NA

Highest Rate Submitted 1.230 1.260 1.270

Lowest Rate Submitted 1.160 1.220 1.240

Total Propostions Submitted (In $Bil.) 26.800 20.850 13.500

Total Propositions Accepted (In $Bil.) 4.885 0.115 0.000

 

Total Money Value of Operation (In $Bil.) 5

i thought we got a gigantic 16.75billion to refund today.

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TrickieDickie has predicted 10 of the last 5 rallies; the one in March absolutely blew me away though. The bulls have had several excuses to rally big and couldn't get it up; I think they'll need to get stocks cheaper before they can rally. Still, I respect the number and a small rally here COULD turn into a big one.

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Re the dickarms. Any 10 day basis indicator (4 week cycle) is signalling a buy right now. Comes back again and again to this. Can't stress it enough. The periodicity of the indicator!!!! Too short for where we are in the cycles. We stoolies know this is a swup that will be overwhelmed by the cascading down of all other cycles.

 

Let the waterfall begin!

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Dick Arms (developer of TRIN as you may already know) is pointing out that when the 10 day ma on the TRIN gets above 1.5 as it did recently, then rallies usually happen within a few days. This goes against a mountain of evidence for no rally. And just looking at the chart, it has gotten above 1.5, headed down, then gone above the 1.5 again, (as it did last Sept.),before any rally occurs. I'm betting it will do the same this time, before any rally. Is the old man reading too much into his own indicator?

 

 

dallnyay[dc][pb10!a.8][vc60]&pref=G]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?...vc60]&pref=G

He is simply wrong, as explained in one of the messages in this thread in my forum.

 

The 10-dma is a more special case. According to the "common knowledge" if this dma rises above 1.5, this is a Buy signal because it tends to precede major market bottoms. Unfortunately, my own backtesting has demonstrated that this "common knowledge" (as many other things commonly known about the market) is wrong. Very often when the 10-dma of TRIN rises that high, it indicates that the market is in a severe downtrend. In extreme cases (e.g., in October 1987) the market can fall more than 20% after this signal has occurred and before the major low is finally reached.

 

According to my backtesting, it is much more profitable to trade this signal in a contrarian way by using the following trading system: If the 10-dma of TRIN rises above 1.45, go Short. Hold until it drops below 1.07; then reverse and go Long. Hold Long until the next Short signal comes.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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