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Charmin

Monthly Digger - August 2010

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I noticed the upcycle 3 days ago in gold

Right at the 1160$ I expected

post-1584-12809123550271.png

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Another big gap up gift this morning...sold my ABX/GLD calls purchased EOD yesterday on the open today.

 

Nice percentages.

 

GLD Oct 16 2010 117.0 Call Limit 3.50 -- -- 15:58:42 08/03/10

GLD Oct 16 2010 117.0 Call Limit 4.20 -- -- 09:31:46 08/04/10

ABX Oct 16 2010 43.0 Call Limit 1.62 -- -- 13:35:18 08/03/10

ABX Oct 16 2010 43.0 Call Limit 1.95 -- -- 09:33:26 08/04/10

 

I'd like the GLD gap to get filled..but gold trades continuously so is there such a thing as a gap? :) I continue to have that wall of worry feeling RE: gold. This move today into tomorrow could take us a little above 50dma.

 

Reshorting DIA

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After six weeks down in gold today %Williams is already showing overbought

 

This is going to be a disappointing bounce I fear

 

Tomorrow I am going to kiss goodbye for good to Drooy and HMY

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1198, 1213, and 1229 breaks into the next cycle. week 12 of the 15 week cycle. not sure we are ready to run here. i am all in

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/8/4_Pierre_Lassonde_.html

some thoughts

the perpetrators of this financial calamity will go unscathed and make billions while joe is homeless , jobless, and hungry! justice!? we dont need no stinkin justice!

the banksters will make fortunes

the most undervalued asset class is the miners. they can mine gold for 4-500 an ounce and sell it for 1200 . finding good management teams is key. they need to be able to execute , and not just on their stock options.

oil @82+

wheat up over 50% in a month

grains starting to bust moves

yup , brings back memories

and yet nero fiddles

1198,1213 are resistance and 1229 busts into the next price cycle.

dont know if we are starting the next leg up here.

i look @the 15 week cycle due to bottom the last week in august, week 12 here and now. its only a matter of time. the banksters have reduced their gigantic short positions in the metals and are now net long. their arrival portends violent swings. the banksters dont have patience. i think phase 3 starts soon. i expect volatility to go off the charts in the gold market. not one limit up day , yet.

2008 was the death of financial assets

2010 will start the death of fiat. worthless , pointless , fake promises!

 

dharma

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@ dharma

I have seen the cycle before but forgot

Does he count from bottom to bottom or top to top ?

 

fyi

I hope you have a good antivirus because ttforum tried to unload a trojan on me after I ignored the warning from firefox . Norton blocked and reported it .

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@ dharma

I have seen the cycle before but forgot

Does he count from bottom to bottom or top to top ?

 

fyi

I hope you have a good antivirus because ttforum tried to unload a trojan on me after I ignored the warning from firefox . Norton blocked and reported it .

the 15 week cycle is from low to low, so its why i am cautious. doesnt have to be a lower low. but, a low

week 12 here

yes, i saw that @tt forum, so i just went away.

dharma

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No guarantees but NG NEM NGD GG and the aforementioned gaps should fill during op-ex week. That is the usual scenario. Should fulfill wishes of just a bounce here and TA predictions to satisfy a bottoming. Sell soon then buy back?

 

The only thing that matches up with the Droopy long term chart is declining production.

 

A few near producers should get a look soon as the big guys need new sources just to maintain the status quo.

 

How successful the manipulators are during op-ex week should give a clue as to the intensity of a run up into the fall.

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GOLD and EURO:

 

Lately, they've been linked.

 

EURO looks toppy--MACD histogram divergence, 5 waves up, confirmed doji candle, gap fill, test of extreme trendline.

 

The embedded Stochastic keeps me away from a short trade.

post-1352-12809849616967.png

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BV's euro chart shows why the US$ is under pressure since the comparison basket is filled with euros more than any other currency. In other words, if you want the US$ to look bad you make the euro look good, actually they both suck.

 

Interesting the new health care was fashioned to punish non-participators with fines being assessed via the IRS during tax season and as soon as the new law is challenged government gets up and claims they have the constitutional authority to levy taxes.....

 

The law describes the levy on the uninsured as a "penalty" rather than a tax. The Justice Department brushes aside the distinction, saying "the statutory label" does not matter. The constitutionality of a tax law depends on "its practical operation," not the precise form of words used to describe it, the department says, citing a long line of Supreme Court cases.

 

Opponents contend that the "minimum coverage provision" is unconstitutional because it exceeds Congress' power to regulate commerce.

Even stranger than that, the New York Times reports on it. Article

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I shorted at begin, noon, and end of day yesterday. Covered a good percentage this morning but keeping some. At EOD yesterday I picked up some insurance calls on SPY - first time buying the weekly options...would never buy them except for short-term insurance. My thought was that I would be perfectly happy if the insurance went to 0...would mean my main positions were kicking butt. Well, positions went in my favor this morning and on the weak bounce here I just dumped the insurance...happily took a small loss on the insurance.

 

Broad markets not giving me good vibes...I'm looking to stay net short.

 

For gold I was looking for a retest of 1190, we almost got it (1193). I haven't put back any trading positions there. Nice move in DBA. Peeled off my UNG trade yesterday at 7.99 for small gains...pressure is building but I think I have a little time to hold off.

 

edit: well, after writing about UNG I took a look and see it just cratered back to 7.84...I picked up a quarter position in Oct. $8 calls @ .59 (had sold them at .64).

 

edit: NEM, which has been a leader, hasn't participated in this bounce - this has me somewhat concerned (at least noted..).

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If gold is to stay in a bullish configuration, this is the place to buy. Once again, it's kissing the uptrend line that's been formed from the bottom. I have picked up a quarter position.

 

edit: another quarter position in UNG @ .53

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I finally said goodbye to HMY and Drooy

I made a few % points on HMY and lost on Drooy

 

So now got 12.5% cash

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Counter-trend trade working for me again. The other day I say this move could take gold slightly above the 50dma - on GLD that's 118.49, premarket we are trading 17.96. If the pattern holds, we'll have further upside but then I'll get cautious short-term. SPY is down a full dollar in premarket, which will do wonders for my combination short-term (August $114) and long-term puts.

 

edit: sold short-term puts on the open (keeping long-term puts)

 

(these are at 2.60 now)

SPY Aug 21 2010 114.0 Put Limit 2.99 -- -- 09:31:13 08/06/10

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