Monthly Digger - August 2010

[Charmin]

At this point if GLD is over sold and the weekly 8/21/50 bar moving averages begin to move horizontal I've got to believe we'll have price trading between 112 and 118 as a hot pocket.

 

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/GLD_08_01_15_59_1280692777.png

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

It's about time for ol'what's his name to check in and say he placed his bets for a gold run in sept/oct and then he'll check out about the 1st week in Dec. to return again the following Aug.

 

Didn't hang around $1160 long. Time is running out for these low volume attacks, effective as they are.

 

The pot of gold is simmering nicely, expect it to come to a boil.

[AgentSmith]

I've just put back in my counter-trend trades - short spy/dia long gld/abx. I'm still groping for that time when I can let these babies run...so far, it's been good to be nimble but that will change "at some point".

 

$DJI hit my short-term target of 10600-10640-10666. We've yet to see the turbulence one would expect during this period but it's hard to tell what's brewing (short-term) under the surface.

 

For gold, I'm taking these trading with the assumption we've enterned into bullish configuration/patterns. Recall what I said about ABX - if it's a bottom, it's an ugly but bullish one. So far, it continues to behave like a bottom - you would expect it to get down into the 'notch' created around 40.40-40.90 Friday morning. I'd rather not see these angles taken out in both ABX/GLD. In GLD 10-day we spent last tues/wed/thu with a shallow angled rise (lead-in) which picked up the pace on Friday (stage 2). so far, we've rougly kissed the original angle created by the lead-in..i like this area to hold.

 

If the angles do hold, I'll have more confidence that we're entering a different stage and will be more likely to hold. If we flatten out - turn sideways, retest bottoms, etc...then it's back to the drawing board again (short-term). As usual, I give the benefit of the doubt to the bull..even if it costs me now and then.

 

Back to the broads, the 3 surges from the lows also satisfies what I was looking for in respect to the Nikkei '94 pattern. We have taken out the prior swing high, which certainly plowed through the shorts stops and likely triggered new longs - a good place to swap positions. We'll see how these assumptions all pan out. FOMC next Tuesday.

[AgentSmith]

Sow

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

SOW higher in summer portends a crash in the fall, according to Armstrong but no new lows during the crash. I take it that means hyper-inflation will affect the markets by preventing a new low. Means after a purging the flood of cash sitting on the sidelines plus still being pumped in will begin finding its way into the regular markets or at least looking for a better return on investment as gains are fleeting.

[AgentSmith]

I closed the counter-trend trade at around 10 but will likely put it back on this afternoon....all positions quite profitable (all options). In gold, I'd like to see an attempt to close the gap. Because I believe the next move in this dance will be of the type you don't want to miss, I will likely ease back into the trade earlier rather than trying to nail a bottom.

[dharma]

I closed the counter-trend trade at around 10 but will likely put it back on this afternoon....all positions quite profitable (all options). In gold, I'd like to see an attempt to close the gap. Because I believe the next move in this dance will be of the type you don't want to miss, I will likely ease back into the trade earlier rather than trying to nail a bottom.

yes, i agree. i think it starts @the end of august.

miners are still cheap

anyone notice wheat? up 60% in a month

inverse h&s on the miner indexes

dharma

russell on gold

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/7/31_Richard_Russell_-_Gold_Could_Rocket_Higher.html

[Charmin]

 

anyone notice wheat? up 60% in a month

 

I think the word is that other countries are having a dry time and that would make Amerika's supply more valuable.

[AgentSmith]

I think the word is that other countries are having a dry time and that would make Amerika's supply more valuable.

 

Yes and we are experiencing bumper crops here.

 

I put back on my SPY/DIA shorts on the gaps fills just now - holding off on GLD/ABX. ABX didn't respond to the last surge in gold.

 

Also picked up some UNG: Nasty Gas

[KnowsNothing]

Hey all,

 

What do you make of this? Reason for concern?

 

Obama Threatens Forex; Says Goodbye to OTC Gold Trading

[Plantagenet]

Looks like TRE is nearing a decision point.

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Hey all,

 

What do you make of this? Reason for concern?

 

Obama Threatens Forex; Says Goodbye to OTC Gold Trading

 

The language in the new law is so contingent on other aspects and conditions it is hard to determine who has the final say in enforcement and what the new playing rules are.

 

In the beginning it was an attempt to chase out or lockout speculators that enter commodity markets trying to corner a position (recently, like coco) but so many loop holes are purposely left in that it will probably be business as usual for the big players or operations move to another playing field outside of US control.

 

Anytime restrictions are used for one but not the other it causes trading on the black markets or worse, hoarding.

[AgentSmith]

I closed the counter-trend trade at around 10 but will likely put it back on this afternoon....all positions quite profitable (all options). In gold, I'd like to see an attempt to close the gap. Because I believe the next move in this dance will be of the type you don't want to miss, I will likely ease back into the trade earlier rather than trying to nail a bottom.

 

Closed SPY/DIA puts (noon gap fill) at 3:50 for ~4.5% profit. I feel we are close to a sizeable decline in the broads but of late it's been prudent to take profits.

 

My first UNG buy was on the initial gap fill. I bought a 2nd helping on the 2nd gap fill at 7.81. At the close I picked up a small amount of GLD/ABX.

[bearvest]

HUI:

 

Looks like a possible incomplete falling wedge that may prove to be a double bottom.

 

MACD histogram has diverged bullishly and is nearly rising above zero (a crossover).

 

Stochastic broke above 20.

 

Challenge is being made of the downtrend line.

[bearvest]

GOLD:

 

I didn't get around to posting this chart over the weekend.

 

Long-tailed hammer type candle that challenged, unsuccessfully, the lower trendline.

 

Stochastic (I use 5,3,3 for weekly) made a rare visit below 20 and spiked out.

 

A close above 1194.50 would break the downtrend.