AgentSmith Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 I have no options, no margins. My focus is on juniors...please review Hecla 1970s consolidation/compression pattern compared to MDN.TO, MTO.V, etc...it's getting there albeitly very slowly. The Euro is close to another big move...tightening up. I am in the process of moving back to TD Ameritrade from Fidelity (keeping Fidelity but after having used both I actually like TD Ameritrade more). So in general, I'm observing and sitting on my juniors. edit: no GLD calls at this point...almost though. I reviewed $WTIC again and I think we can get a get below $1168 one more time. Regardless, I'd rather not speculate even if it is just small $ at this point...better I observe and go with the break. We may retest the previous first. As dharma mentioned, this is all just short-term speculation. GLD June 19th $120 calls have an open interest of 150,784, where the puts just 15k.....a 10:1 ratio on the bull side. It will be interesting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 make no mistake the markets are painted pictures, painted by the large $$ to get one to be corralled. frightened and confused one becomes prey. it should be fairly obvious to anyone paying attention, the problems are vast and countries are fighting for their economic future. gold will go alot higher. so, w/the trend as your guide. buy weakness and sell strength. anything else and you are prey. 1213 marks the end of a cycle and 1229 breaks into the next cycle, this is all background noise. my cycle tops on the 19th , it could be a little longer or shorter. until then i will wait, unless or until i am signaled otherwise. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 sniff, sneeiff, sneeeeiff, . . . Can you smell it? and no, I don't mean the fear . . . that comes with the territory, as well as the chorus of worry warts that are bullish, then bearish, then back to bullish, on and on. If not, then can you hear it? It's a well lubricated machine but still very noisy when operating at full capacity. Tonnes of ink being transferred from plate to printed confetti, cut, packed and shipped off to banks around the globe. It's hard to conceal. The chart posted shows how the Euro has caught a bid as well as the EU Financials such as UBS, HBC, IRE, NBG, BBVA, to name a few. But then why is this happening when the EU PIGS' Sovereign Credit Spreads continue blowing out to new highs today, inquiring minds wanna know!!?? They're scratching their collective heads in wonderment. Could this mean, uh, I mean could this be that all that noise and smell is coming from the printing press machines being fired up to run at full speed? Is this what Gold has been screaming at the MCIs all along? More printing? . . . more coordinated intervention to support the Euro coming soon? Yah think? Possibly?? As the bond strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland said in the article below: "Ultimately the European Central Bank needs to be more aggressive if they want to cap the contagion risk. Once you’re in this intervention game you’ve got to act boldly and aggressively . . ." Hmmm, "act boldly and aggressively" the bond strategist banker advises? You mean act "boldly" as in "Boldly where no man has gone before" kind of "boldly"? Well, one thing is for sure, these bankers are birds of a feather that flock together (as well as think alike). And if this guy is "saying it," you can bet they're all "thinking it," and more likely have been preparing to "do it," i.e., PRINT MORE and INTERVENE MORE. It’s only a matter of time now until the printing presses start to run in Europe . . . And when they do, the ECB will need "a little help from their friends," the Fed, aka "Chopper." A little help to support the Euro, which means more money printing here as well. Got gold? Stay frosty my friends ... Spanish-German Yield Spread Reaches Euro-Era High (Update1) Note that the yield premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year government bonds instead of German bunds rose to a euro-era record, erasing the drop triggered by the 750 billion-euro ($912 billion) European Union aid package. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-02/spanish-german-yield-spread-reaches-euro-era-high-update1-.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 467 is the resistance on the hui, above that and its blue skies triple tops/bottoms dont hold richard russell has stated that he went to some gem auctions and he and other dealers were amazed by the prices of gem stones. a friend who is in the retail gem biz here in santa fe, says he expects inflation to hit sept 11 . his biz is an advance scout for upcoming situations. his biz sucks in deflations. he is seeing the signs that inflation will hit in the above time frame. gm- in museums do they let you touch the art? dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 467 is the resistance on the hui, above that and its blue skies triple tops/bottoms dont hold richard russell has stated that he went to some gem auctions and he and other dealers were amazed by the prices of gem stones. a friend who is in the retail gem biz here in santa fe, says he expects inflation to hit sept 11 . his biz is an advance scout for upcoming situations. his biz sucks in deflations. he is seeing the signs that inflation will hit in the above time frame. gm- in museums do they let you touch the art? dharma do they let you touch the art? Uh, sadly the answer is no . . . but it hasn't been for a lack of trying on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnowsNothing Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 Iran to sell 45 Billion Euros to buy Gold... Trading Euros for Gold &... "It also said that other Gulf states had also started cutting their euro holdings" Iran to sell 45B Euros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 Charmin, here's that chart again (with a slightly shorter time period) that I posted the other day with the addition of the overlaid GDX. We were discussing whether the "All That Glitters Is Not Gold Bear Freak-out level" might apply to the GDX low on May 21. The chart demonstrates that the NYSE Declining Volume vs. Advancing Volume RATIO and CBOE Put/Call Options Index RATIO dovetailing confirmations of the bottoms (as well as tops) in the NYSE and S&P 500 indexes also continues to have a strong correlation with the respective bottoms/tops in the Gold Stocks as well, in this case the GDX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Surfer Dood Doo Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 gm no what u mean. i get confused cuz one day evryone is bullish here and the next day they are bearish and the next minute bulls again. im dizzy an my head is spinnin. tnx chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Surfer Dood Doo Posted June 2, 2010 Report Share Posted June 2, 2010 hows the european pigs doing? still goin to crash an bring down all the markets to? gold still going up then? im sittin tight holdin my gold and stocks. and still smiling. tnx chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 3, 2010 Report Share Posted June 3, 2010 gm no what u mean. i get confused cuz one day evryone is bullish here and the next day they are bearish and the next minute bulls again. im dizzy an my head is spinnin. tnx chuck Chuck, most of the posters here ("PERMA-FOOLS" excepted) have been staunch bulls on Gold and the Gold Stocks since I've been posting. Yes, agreed, on a short-term basis, (being that some are traders as well as fundamentalists), become "short-term bearish" and/or cautious from time to time. So please don't group them with the "Fundamentals Useless therefor Hopelessly Clueless" crowd of fools that appear from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Surfer Dood Doo Posted June 3, 2010 Report Share Posted June 3, 2010 Chuck, most of the posters here ("PERMA-FOOLS" excepted) have been staunch bulls on Gold and the Gold Stocks since I've been posting. Yes, agreed, on a short-term basis, (being that some are traders as well as fundamentalists), become "short-term bearish" and/or cautious from time to time. So please don't group them with the "Fundamentals Useless therefor Hopelessly Clueless" crowd of fools that appear from time to time. yep good point they are some good posters here. but is possible to coment on your take whats going on now? is greece still going to crash the stock market you think gm? tnx much chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 3, 2010 Report Share Posted June 3, 2010 European Pigs / Crash the Stock market? The PIIGS wallowing in their mire and crashing the stock markets? One thing is clear, the "This is It!!!" MCI hoard remain resolutely focused on Europe and are counting the hours and minutes for the "Deflationary End of the World / Mother of All Market Meltdowns" to commence shortly, much like they did after the fact in Fall 2008. Of course none of these same geniuses saw any of it coming back then and none of them saw the huge coming rebound to follow either. Review the stories in the media at that time and prior to that, go to the blog sites, and you'll understand what I'm saying. The reality remains that the enormous debt problems are real and have not been corrected. So far, the spot light remains "conveniently" shining on the Eurozone keeping the hoard from noticing the even bigger problem, the United States, United Kingdom and Japan. First the housing Bubble collapse in the US finally caught the attention of the crowd, then in '08 Iceland blew up, then Latvia (although most probably slept through that one), then the crisis in Ireland hit the news, Spain, California and Dubai recently in '09 and then back to the current problems facing PIIGS members such as Greece. In the United States, one sees an explosion of Public Deficits accompanied by many states (I'll let you fill in the blanks) failing to pay their debts. Compounding this dilemma, this problem is shared by the other aforementioned countries above. The banking system of these countries are groping with an increasing number of payment defaults, at the same time a the tsunami of maturing debt. And if all this isn't bad enough, the inevitable rising interest rates to come for all the too obvious reasons I won't bother to mention. What one has to understand here is that the short term financing needs of the world’s banking system are increasingly much larger than available savings, i.e., we are now at the very beginning of a huge wave of repayment and/or refinancing of loans (mal-investments) made at the end of the pre-crisis period from '05 through '07 time-frame. This includes loans not just to sub-prime lendees, but also loans made to major governments, states, cities in those states, businesses big and small in those cities, etc. And now, these entities are in many instances defunct or severely deficient, or at least hard pressed to repay those loans. The result of all this expected/projected turmoil was not DEFLATION, but instead ASSET DEPRECIATION or also known simply as WEALTH DESTRUCTION, trillions of dollars worth. But absolutely NOT Monetary Contraction. Just the opposite, Monetary EXPANSION, i.e., INFLATION. (Chuck, you'd be surprised at the number of "deflationist dimwits" that still have no clue as to what I'm explaining here.) And these problems are only exacerbated by the large extent of marginalized Businesses, Households and Nations clamoring for yet MORE credit! Despite what the "deep forest" is fixated on, the Eurozone is going to be OK because they're going to print lots of money, QE,(for anyone that has been capable of reading between the lines). Greece has been the ECB's "pet project" and a road map for how to deal with the problems of the other PIIGS. These countries are implementing austerity measures (unlike the West). And the devaluation of the Euro has been a big blessing for the Eurozone making them more competitive going forward. As the market comes to view the risks as manageable, the Euro will stabilize. However, (finally beginning to "get it") the hoard will eventually see through the Eurozone "diversion," right through to the three "behemoths," Japan, UK and US. These countries will find it increasingly difficult to sell their bonds. Only the Perma-Fools in the Deflationist "Cash is King" Prechter Camp, will think holding cash is a brillaint idea. Only these utter fools will buy into the government pronouncements of an end to their monetization agendas, so called exit strategies, and other such outrageous non-sense. Who in their right mind thinks someone will want to buy US Treasuries, British Gilts other than their own governments? By keeping the spotlight on the Eurozone, voters, yes voters will believe the BS "exit strategies and the "no more QE" pledges from the political parties endeavoring to stay in power to the run up to elections. Yes, the Cool-aid drinkers will have a massive dose of reality after the elections are over, that there never was in fact a viable "exit strategy." And that even more QE will be the political quacks' prescription as they finger point their way to attempting to stay in office. Take US Treasuries for instance. Chopper and company routinely gloat how easy they are to sell, how successful the auctions have been despite the increasing amount being offered. However, only the Perma-Fools fail to see the glaringly obvious, that the amount continues to grow commensurate with the expanding deficits. So what's going to happen? A number of things. As anyone paying attention has noticed, China has not only quit increasing its purchases, but started reducing them. Uh, yes, America's BIGGEST CUSTOMER, that China. So we have increasing deficits, Americans (Political Parties vieing for reelection votes) unwilling to undertake austerity measures, yes that America, the one with its citizens not only without savings but many of which are broke-ass mountain). So who is going to take up the slack from the decreasing Chinese purchases???? "Dumb deedee dumb dumb . . . dumb dumb dumb . . ." to the rescue comes our beloved caped crusaders, Timmy "Throw more money at it" Geithner and economic genius, Chopper Ben, arriving on the scene by helicopter!!! They're here to bedazzle the hoard with their magic tricks to buy up all those unwanted, unloved T-Bonds via the primary dealers and other financial "oh so convenient" participants using a variety of guaranteed-to-be "opaque methods." Ring, ring, ring. . . . uh yeah . . hey William, how's the weather down there in the Caymans? Ring, ring, ring . . . uh yeah , is this Wong? How's the weather over there in Hong Kong? Ring!!!!! Hey there Martha, how's the weather there in the Channel Islands . . . yeah how'd you guess . . . we got just a little favor to ask . . . Having you're "subordinates" (read China) disagree with your agenda always leads to tensions and the corporate controlled US politicians are not going to take kindly of them following their own best interests. Of course the Chinese are extremely concerned over the growing risk of their US Peso denominated assets losing yet more value. Who would blame them? Uh, US politicians maybe? Lemme see cheer, Arms Sales to Taiwan? hmmm . . Disagreement on North Korea? . . . Iran? . . . Obama finally meeting the Dalai Lama after initially ignoring him . . . Trade Spats Tariff Tit-For-tats maybe? Beijing verses Washington coming to a head sometime soon this year? Crisis brewing? Ahh, forget the US and China, what about the second largest holder of US Treasuries, Japan? Oh? . . what's that I hear, working ever more closely with Beijing now? Enemies working closely together? What? Then what about the US Peso? Won't that lead to a more rapid weakening? Arguments surfacing over secret Cold War treaties between Japan and US? Japan wants the US military out of its country? An angered Toyota accuses the US Government of hiding behind the scenes casting doubt on the quality of ALL Japanese goods for the benefit of its domestic companies and labor unions. Yes, let's focus on Japan having to deal with an even bigger, more serious economic and financial problem than Greece or Spain or Portugal . . . It's problem of demographics, of the daunting credit financing needs of its enormous public debt! Now does anyone seriously think the US, Japan, UK or Eurozone are going to CONTRACT MONEY SUPPLY at a time of growing debts and financing needs??? Does anyone seriously believe the PERMA-FOOLS that DEFLATION will be the prescription? Or have I once again assumed too much that the "Recognition Phase" is fast approaching? That the hoard will begin to understand that mountains of money is on the way to pay down those debts, and the mounting interests on those debts. That Monetary Expansion is what the Political Leaders have been screaming to anyone who would take their head out of his hole, is here, I N F L A T I O N ! ! ! Yes, it's the insidious tax that will be imposed on the masses. CASH IS NOT KING. Fiat currencies will continue to lose purchasing power as they have been all this time. It is a secular Bull Market in Gold after all. Only the Perm-Fools with their heads in a state of Perma-Frost still don't get it. Oh well . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Surfer Dood Doo Posted June 3, 2010 Report Share Posted June 3, 2010 gm gold stocks up today i heard means gold up tomorow. lets hope. as for the eurozone, i see what you mean but how is the fed going to help them to intervene? give them money how does that work? tnx chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted June 3, 2010 Report Share Posted June 3, 2010 gm-we are exactly on the same page, my worry in all of this is how do the masses act/react. are we heading for social unrest? mad max? would love to hear your take. i know how the gold story ends, its no mystery to me. its the other stuff that has me deliberating and worrying. and if history is any guide, this wont be pretty. thanks dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gold Majestic Posted June 3, 2010 Report Share Posted June 3, 2010 gm gold stocks up today i heard means gold up tomorow. lets hope. as for the eurozone, i see what you mean but how is the fed going to help them to intervene? give them money how does that work? tnx chuck "gm gold stocks up today i heard means gold up tomorow." Chuck, that hasn't been the case for a long time although I don't doubt the hoard is still clinging to that notion. In fact, it has been the other way around for some time now (for reasons I explained earlier) that Gold leads Gold Stocks kicking and screaming. What you saw today were the Gold Stocks playing “catch-up” to Gold as the Euro rallied taking the anti-dollar benefactors with it. The S&P was up over 2% and the GDX nearly 2%, both closing on their best levels of day. As to how other CBs could help the ECB by coordinating an intervention in the market? The G20 finance ministers and CBs' "Coordinated Panic Get Together" is fast approaching this weekend. One way the Euro can be defended is through the Fed and other CBs' printing of their own currencies to buy Euros. The side effect? Well, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that printing more US Pesos is not bullish for the currency nor any other currency for that matter. And the US certainly could use a weaker currency to bolster the unemployment problem and fledgling economic recovery. We do after all continue to have a global currency devaluation competition that's been going on for years now. But of course, Gold is the winner in all this despite the "Cash Is King" traders that run into cash every chance they get after being forced to cover their losses on their Gold Short positions as we keep observing. Bear in mind, we have the Job's Report coming up this Friday which is usually unfriendly to Gold and its derivatives. We did hear Obama prepping the markets today in his speech that the report will be very good reflecting strong jobs growth in May which is a sure giveaway he's already been shown the data. On the other hand, we also know that most of the jobs created this summer will be census related along with the usual dose of the "imaginary" birth/death model jobs. So aside from appeasing the short-term, myopic MCIs, this won't matter one bit to the smart money as they know it won't matter one bit to the Fed. Chuck, the bottom line continues, that until REAL "private" as opposed to "government" job growth returns, the Fed will remain bedded down in Hotel California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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