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wndysrf

Nervous Energy

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For the record, I say we see 6,000 before we see 10,000. :wink2:

yeah, 10,000 has gone away for a while. like 10-20 yrs.

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Martial-"we riot when things get tough" -you hit it right on the head-the worst is yet to come. Bought a wedding gift today, a very expensive cafe brewer with a very famous french brand name we all know-as usual the freakin thing is made in China. When a nation surrenders it's right to create GOOD jobs to a country that hates our guts-it's over baby. The market today strained like hell and went nowhere-the tape painters were furiously putting lipstick on the pig at the end without that it would have been flat. Somebody (I suspect-DA BOYZ) made a huge series of bets today-equity leaps-calls 53,358-puts-189,897, SPX leaps-calls-54-puts-2,312, NDX leaps-calls-11,409-puts 171,771 now this is a good sign as da boyz like to front run using the leaps because they do not show up in the p/c ratio. But the BAD sign is the p/c ratio closed at 1.18 today it would appear we bears, the sheep and Da Boyz are all on the same side of the boat so I expect a big move tomorrow (I hope it's our way) but all those puts could produce a short manic spike up to shake the weak out OR this thing may be so far gone numbers don't matter anymore. As per Friday I held my 890 Feb. puts (5) and added 10 more today as the market went up so I am happy with average cost. No more goes in though until I see a breakdown. Be careful out there and Trade Safe!

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hey b4, i beat my browser silly trying to open that LEAPS link you posted last night (www.cboe.com/statistics) - won't come up. am i botching the URL, or is it a gnome in my cable or something?

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Hey wndysrf- just curious- do you pay property taxes on these vehicles as well as the VLF? In CT, everyone pays the same registration fee of $40, but the towns tax you on the value of the vehicles, roughly 3% of book value. I wonder when they start taxing our boats- presently no property tax and a minimal registration fee.

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Brian4:

 

The large LEAP purchases for way out of the money puts on QQQ's came in today because MER did a giant convertible today which has a QQQ kicker in it.

 

So the huge LEAP buying was in connection with putting a hedge on that issue. Its not necessarily a large downside bet on the market...

 

"The ratio of equity puts traded to calls spiked. While this usually indicates mounting investor caution and is considered a bullish signal by contrarians, Monday's heavy put volume was accounted for by an unusually large put trade involving long-term puts on the QQQ, or Nasdaq 100 Tracking Stock, expiring 2005. Specifically, an institutional investor bought more than 110,000 contracts of the January 45 puts expiring 2005, while selling a roughly similar number of the January 55 puts expiring 2005."

 

"2005 option activity in the Cubes may relate to the MER convertible offering (MMRN) which is tagged to the QQQs (mar '05) that I cited last night (from a nasdaqtrader.com link). Basically, you give MER $10 now, and they have to give you $14.29 max (capped)(less certain things) in March 05 if the Cubes rise (3X gain but capped). So whatever is going on in '05 options may relate to those things (hedging around various outcomes by sellers and buyers). If Cubes decline, you are not guaranteed getting the $10 back (MMRN is more complicated than that, but thats the gist)"

 

 

 

GOLD BUSTED $372....

 

FINALLY.

 

HELLO $412

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Better yet, take the Property Taxes. I'm sporting a $12K Tax Bill on the House... If I hadn't pulled a Prop. 58, I'd be looking at twice the amount....Welcome to the Sunshine State!

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B4, the 20 day ma of the p/c ratio is far from the levels seen at lows. The only way to get to those levels would be for the p/c ratio to rise, as it did today. This rally is corrective in nature and it will fail horribly, IMHO. :grin:

 

But, you knew that already :wink2:

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martialcomp,

 

Here's a snippet from Fidelity's 401k admin web site showing 56% of those eligible over 50 yrs chose to add another $1000 "catch-up contribution" to the veg-o-matic for 2002. This wad's been blown and the invariable APR15 tax bill commeth soon. There's still a lot of hangover of unpaid capital gains taxes out there with no capital gains left to pay them. Procrastinators from the 2001 "this is not a recession" have an even more painful day of reckoning coming soon with another year of losses in 2002 and increased penalties and interest to pay and less of their money left to pay them.

 

 

  Fidelity Reports Majority Elect to Catch-Up  Back  

December 19, 2002

 

Despite a difficult year in the stock market, Fidelity Investments today reported that that preliminary data from its base of more than 10 million workers in employer-sponsored retirement plans showed that the majority of eligible 401(k) participants took advantage of the new retirement savings opportunities that became available in 2002.

 

Specifically, 56 percent1 of eligible 401(k) participants2 age 50 and older have elected to take advantage of the additional savings opportunity afforded to them with the ?catch-up? provision.

 

The ?catch-up? provision allows workers age 50 and older who are making the maximum plan or IRS pre-tax contribution to invest an additional $1,000 in their workplace retirement plan in 2002.

 

The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (EGTRRA) of 2001 is baking in a lot of room for inflation with it provisions for increased 401k contributions.

I expect we'll see lower percentages than Fidelity's %56 taking advantage of the extra contributions as time goes on.

When capitulation sets in that market returns can no longer be hoped to keep up with the rate of inflation and the cost of carrying debt. That extra money will go to paying down debt rather than into 401k's.

In either case, what follows is a lot more money NOT going into consumer spending in 2003-2006:

 

Here's the

Increased retirement savings opportunities in 2003

Beginning January 1, 2003, EGTRRA will offer Americans expanded retirement savings opportunities. The annual pre-tax contribution limit for employer-sponsored plans will increase to $12,000, up from $11,000. This pre-tax limit will continue to increase by $1,000 per year until it reaches $15,000 in 2006. For workers age 50 and older, the catch-up contribution will be $2,000, increasing by $1,000 a year until $5,000 is reached in 2006.

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If you haven't already, don't forget to say thanks to Mark! When you care enough to send the very best.

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Brian, that p/c skew was due to a bearish bet (hedge) on the cubes in the afternoon by da boyz. This is good for us.

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=ST&f=2&t=1027

 

Aren't QQQs considered an equity option? If so that's why.

 

Either way, high daily equity p/c ratio or low, doesn't matter, Mr Marke spoke loud and clear in Dec/Jan per many longer-term indicators and there is no denying their prognosis - DOWN THE CRAPPER.

 

Made decent coin today being short pieces of crap hitting 52 week lows. Market averages may have been up by my well picked portfolio of toilet paper was down overall today. Tells you something.

 

So, until the big flusheroo comes I sit patiently twidling my thumbs, tapping my foot, and watching all the suckers buy.

 

See you at SPX600 !

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Brian4, IMHO $CPC 21DMA is no way near a long signal.

Which suggests to me any rally will be short-lived.

 

Fart, when are you going to give us some

rationale for your spring rally?

Take a leaf out of Vesselin's book. Refer to his

excellent post - last night.

 

Only DIA looks like it's close to a LONG.

Although you would need some tight stops.

 

Although I would like to hear Vesselin's views on any

possible DONGs.

 

 

http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...6;BPFINA|D

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Fart, when are you going to give us some

rationale for your spring rally?

http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm

 

Until I find a model that works better than this one, I'm stickin with it...Geo 360 seems to track pretty good...

 

Oh, here's the one from last year, look at the Geo 360 on that one, show's market lows at 10/7 and top at 11/28... that's damn close huh?

 

http://www.amanita.at/e/archive/e-bradley02.htm

 

Cheers...

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