dharma Posted April 13, 2010 Report Share Posted April 13, 2010 1138 and 1123 are support. i doubt that support gets broken. xau/hui are Dover Sole on hourlies. waiting to see what shape the correction takes. dont think this lasts very long. there is a catalyst out there, dont know what it will be. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted April 13, 2010 Report Share Posted April 13, 2010 stewart thompson http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_041310.html dharma seasonally gold gets some mojo the end of this month and peaks early june, which is what i am looking for http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html in the last bull they continually raised rates and gold continued higher. higher rates are bullish for gold 1400 is my upper reach for this leg. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted April 13, 2010 Report Share Posted April 13, 2010 stewart thompson http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_041310.html dharma seasonally gold gets some mojo the end of this month and peaks early june, which is what i am looking for http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html in the last bull they continually raised rates and gold continued higher. higher rates are bullish for gold 1400 is my upper reach for this leg. dharma He's been writing some great articles. Compare his chart of the Euro versus the AUY chart I sent you earlier dharma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted April 13, 2010 Report Share Posted April 13, 2010 He's been writing some great articles. Compare his chart of the Euro versus the AUY chart I sent you earlier dharma. ahhhh both have broken out! thanks agent dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted April 13, 2010 Report Share Posted April 13, 2010 AUY bounced right where she needed to. It's nearly shaken off the major downward forces. Some of the studs like NEM, EGO, SLW have been performing well (although all moved up kicking in screaming relative to gold performance). I expect laggers like AUY to get some mojo on this next move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 14, 2010 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2010 Palladium Platinum Silver Gold looks like in that order for momentum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted April 14, 2010 Report Share Posted April 14, 2010 The wheels are coming off the cart, the fuse is burning down, ready for launch. If the banks can't cap spot here they are going to turn long with everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 15, 2010 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2010 Well, I'd welcome a few of those old time "who da thunk" dayz when gold rockets 40 bucks or more. Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted April 15, 2010 Report Share Posted April 15, 2010 i was going to just send this link to agent, but.........i decided to post the link i had heard of hadik years ago, but i have not followed his work! he is out on a limb on this one. makes for an interesting read http://www.consensus-inc.com/newsletter/0410spl-itt.htm while i hope he is correct, i prefer no war! dharma UPDATE 1-India's March gold imports up nearly 6-times y/y http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...E63D08120100414 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted April 15, 2010 Report Share Posted April 15, 2010 Well, feel free to use me as a contrarian indicator. I got fed up with the crappy underperformance of bunch of my stocks and kicked'em to the curb. Crapitulated on a bunch of them. Everything can now go to the moon. Personally, I need to step back and take a fresh look. I'm seeing double from looking at this crap....it was quite agonizing for me. Basically if you zoom in on the the 12/2004 to 5/2005 in the $HUI...that's what has me concerned on a pattern-analysis basis. Of course there is the massive underperformance on gold stocks against physical gold that's pretty obvious as well. Is it building energy for a huge move, or is the market telling us something. Damned if I know. I'm at a "mental low" so I brought in almost all my troops in order to reassess and find an equilibrium again. I made a shit load on Yamana options from the 9.8 to 10.70 move but I gave a bunch back. I dumped all my May's until my head is together again. As I said, the market can soar now. Gold can smash through the 1160 level onto at least $1260, etc. I'm going to wait for the miners to prove up before I hop on it. Many juniors look fine (still doing their massive consolidation). I don't know how all of this resolves. I have lots of conflicting ideas, patterns, etc. - I can see a scenario where the dollar goes to 92 and then does a MASSIVE dive. - I can see Yamana, after retracing .618 of the decline, going to the .236 (I haven't measured by eyeball says it's around 7.20?). - I can see gold moving to $1360, at least $1260 very very soon. - I can imagine Bogus worries in Euroland regarding Spain, Portugal or some other country regarding sovereign debt. - The scenario I was originally looking at had Yamana moving to the 11.40-11.80 gap area, pause, and then 12.60/13.60. I had a very good pattern match...but the subsequent move off of the "W" bottom was PATHETIC and broke the pattern...or at least makes it very hard to believe. Blah blah. I'll be around...holding tight to physical and hoping to clear my head. As I said, the markets can likely soar now. -Agent p.s. AUY is at the extremely critical level of 10.21. A huge move is coming. I'm not sure which way, but whatever way it breaks, GO WITH IT (on the first wave retracement after the initial thrust). Up or down I care not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 16, 2010 Report Share Posted April 16, 2010 Precious Metals Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted April 16, 2010 Report Share Posted April 16, 2010 I suppose I have to post my worries so I whipped up these 2 charts. This is just ONE scenario. My head is spinning with all these variables/scenarios and trying to make sense of it all. I'm not sure. But I know caution is prudent (and I was VERY long and mixed with options). I know this is a different environment than before, awareness is growing .. we are building towards a massive parabolic move. We have all known this all along (only one ending to this whole thing), the question is when. Here is one angle on the (short-term) bearish case...all continued base-building for the "mother of all bubbles". I hope more will post most their thoughts so that perhaps collectively we can figure out what's going on. Perhaps my worries on miner underperformance are misplaced. Perhaps I reached my mental breaking point which is exactly what the market is waiting for...some internal mechanism that the market is built on, the "time to maturation" of a seed of doubt across an entire investing crowd...after the statistical majority have matured, it's time to move in the other direction...varying degrees of emotional thresholds forming a nice statistical bell curve that gets translated into the charts. I honestly do not know if I've just reached "analysis-paralysis" or if I have true cause to be concerned or what. With such doubt I have to regain the emotional capital. I hope my pathetic honest stream of conscious is useful to the lab experiment/web-crawler's analyzing (natural language processing) internet text for trends/foreasting. I see the massive reverse head and shoulders. The massive cup/handle pattern. Perhaps I just need to focus more on the leaders. NEM and others have massive diamond patterns, which I would expect to break (explosively) up. I'm aware of all of this. Also aware that I have to look at all bear and bull scenarios...to be prepared for either. The bearish case projects to 31 GDX (possibly 36), 290 HUI. The bullish case is towards 600+ HUI, 1340-60/1440-60 gold (min $1260). I am going to look again at oil/oil stocks again when they broke out. -Agent p.s. I found the pattern match below at 3pm yesterday and coupled with all the mixed-feelings I've had...well, I had to be prudent.....someone I highly respect and love once told me that emotional capital is more valuable than investing capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted April 16, 2010 Report Share Posted April 16, 2010 Meanwhile back at the ranch, I must find peace...in more earthly matters. First asparagus cutting this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted April 16, 2010 Report Share Posted April 16, 2010 Quick run down as I see it, short-term: 1) Optimistic bull-case: GLD has retested 110, EURO gap is filled, we hold and are ready for new highs all around. 2) Pessimistic bull-case: GLD fills gap at 108.6-109.6 area, while backtested the downtrend support from the previous highs since we hit 119. This test holds and we are good to go. 3) I've already given the bear case. Something like Yamana has formed a double-bottom that MUST hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted April 16, 2010 Report Share Posted April 16, 2010 Look at the GS chart. I think we'll see charts like that in gold, someday, in the opposite direction. Everything moving sideways, everyone happy or bored...blah blah, and then BOOM. That's why dharma has the best advice....always stay partially in, at least....and wait/enjoy life. Many stocks are testing their power trendline, holding here would be encouraging. GLD pierced the 21-ema @ 11.03 but has recouped those losses. When we broke out of the long consolidation at 1k, the 13/21 emas were pretty good guides. On the first consolidation after breakout, it wasn't able to break down below the 21-ema....that is what I will look for here in gold. edit: It will be difficult to judge ahead of time where we go from here, short-term. If we hang onto this level for today+Monday I would consider that very good. I will probably have a pilot position in on Monday. Options expiration + crazy weather + general world craziness = head spinning. All good for gold, all base-building. My commentary is related to short-term trading, the eye is always on the prize, which is the only ending this move in gold knows....and that's parabolic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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