Monthly Digger - February 2010

[crafate]

The 2008 w buffalo fractional sets are about the only coin I pay a premium for. Bought 4 sets 12/09 for around $4400 apiece with boxes and certificates.

[Ageka]

The 2008 w buffalo fractional sets are about the only coin I pay a premium for. Bought 4 sets 12/09 for around $4400 apiece with boxes and certificates.

 

I don't think I ever saw one ; can you post a pic ?

 

The most I ever paid over melt was for a MS63 Louis XIV 1651

[bearvest]

HUI:

 

Overlap of 416.02 leaves 3 waves on the chart.

 

Overlap of 436.24 (61.8% retracement) likely seals the deal.

[Charmin]

Something about Sept. 2 again

 

MFN

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1265081424.png

[Charmin]

Something about HUI 380

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1265081676.png

[Ageka]

Something about HUI 380

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1265081676.png

 

 

Beautifull chart Charmin

Thank You

[crafate]

I don't think I ever saw one ; can you post a pic ?

 

The most I ever paid over melt was for a MS63 Louis XIV 1651

 

 

Ageka, look at Ebay #350309593899, which is the 2008 4 coin set. US Mint only made around 6000 of these sets. They are overpriced based on bullion sets lie the Krugerrand and Britannia four coin sets, which Ive been buying over for years.

 

The premium for the buffalos represents the yankee dollar prejudice of American buyers, as the Krug and Britannia four coin sets are actually rarer, although the 2008 buffalo set was only done for 2008 and then the US Mint said no more.

[Ageka]

I don't think I ever saw one ; can you post a pic ?

 

The most I ever paid over melt was for a MS63 Louis XIV 1651

 

 

Ageka, look at Ebay #350309593899, which is the 2008 4 coin set. US Mint only made around 6000 of these sets. They are overpriced based on bullion sets lie the Krugerrand and Britannia four coin sets, which Ive been buying over for years.

 

The premium for the buffalos represents the yankee dollar prejudice of American buyers, as the Krug and Britannia four coin sets are actually rarer, although the 2008 buffalo set was only done for 2008 and then the US Mint said no more.

 

 

Thanks

Those prices are horrendous ( to pay ) on top the guy suffered from a stricktly american disease

He had the coins put in a coffin and it must have broken his heart one coin came back PR69 only

 

I learned to grade non proof coins : especially MS60 to MS67 so that I know what I am bidding on

[faramir]

"blithely accept the 8%+ put out by the ChiComs?"

 

farmir, I don't "blithely accept" anything, much less what news writers report.

 

I've made it a point to do my own "think & relate / connect the dots" research to assess what is important.

 

When you've asked me questions in the past, for example about GTU compared to CEF, or about China, etc., I initially responded with many paragraphs of discussion. You? Didn't even bother to reply. I've invited discussion from you in reply to other charges from you, but again no reply.

 

So what gives? You want to discuss or debate something about China?

 

Yeah, I think China's GDP reports are just as suspect as those from the US. Why believe the ChiComs on their numbers?

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Capital Gold Corp. made it to the big board as CGC giving it a nice pop with the added exposure almost like an IPO.

 

$1116 spot area is acting like the ceiling again. Decisions decisions on whether to lighten up here. Bought a little to early so had to wait for a further drop then bounce/retrace to get back above my buy points. I guess that beats not taking some profits nearer the highs to trade with at these levels. Satisfies my need to play the swings even though the majority of holdings (cores) sit through these moves.

 

I see $1116 being probed now, back to the popcorn.

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Volume weak all around making the bounce suspect. After just watching the regular markets selling off (temporarily?) taking mining stocks down along with them you can see the concern for any further tanking in the regular markets. Money seems to be parking in short term paper, a cash preserving position with no rate of return.

 

The last thing the government wants is an inflation indicator showing inflation. I was reading if the 10yr required a higher rate of return it would be eliminated then the 5yr....... It was just an example of how to hide inflation, wouldn't put it past them to try.

 

Also reading tax hikes for everyone coming but Reuters.com pulled that article to be replaced with an update later.

[Gold Majestic]

Yeah, I think China's GDP reports are just as suspect as those from the US. Why believe the ChiComs on their numbers?

 

"Yeah, I think China's GDP reports are just as suspect as those from the US. Why believe the ChiComs on their numbers?"

 

You’ll have to get in a very, very long line behind a hoard of self-proclaimed “experts” that have been outing themselves as uninformed nuts for the past 10 years with their oped and book predictions of the "Coming Collapse of China.” It makes good press and sells lots of copies, but they’ve been wrong and the nuts have been cracked. For those of us that actually research the stuff, we new much better and subsequently invested in Gold, Commodities, Oil, etc. and were right.

 

There are numerous, various, credible sources to obtain objective, accurate information concerning China’s economic growth. Unfortunately, there is far too much pervasive ignorance about China (too many “Fundamentals Are Useless” advocates), especially among the “US centric” investors residing in many of the non-Asian nations of the world, especially the US and Canada.

 

I’ve been visiting China since the late 80s after my first (one of many) invitations from Chinese students that I taught at Hawaii Pacific University. My first trip in 1987 opened my eyes and each subsequent visit never ceased to amaze how quickly China was transforming into a world economic power. My last visit was in 2004 and was no different, amazing.

 

As you may or may not be aware, accepted by all reputable anal cysts is that China has been the third largest economy in the world, after the United States and Japan with a nominal GDP closing in on US$5 Trillion and currently set to become the second largest economy very soon. China has had the fastest-growing major economy for the past 30 years with an average annual GDP growth rate at approx. 10%. According to the IMF, China is the largest trading nation in the world and the largest exporter and second largest importer of goods.

 

For many years now, some of the so called “experts” have been calling for China’s economy to crash and 2008 was no exception.

Question, who was right and who was wrong?

 

I said in Fall 2008 that China’s economy would continue to be strong albeit at a slower rate, 7% or so. I was right and China has had a significant impact on commodities, Gold, Oil, etc. since. I made this assessment at the height of the “End of the World” Doom and Gloom projections that everything (especially China) was going to crash.

 

You need to visit China and see for yourself. If that’s not practical, then I advise you to skip the op-ed pieces that make headlines and perform some of your own research. If you don’t trust the Chicoms, then simply google the following organizations and financial publications and follow their statistics and read what they have to say:

 

WTO

APEC

OECD

United Nations

IMF

World Bank

Asian Development Bank

US Government China Business Information Center

Australia Embassy in Beijing Trade Services

UK Trade & Investment

US Foreign Agricultural Service

USAID China

US Commercial Service in Beijing

 

China Economic Information Network

Economist

Far Eastern Economic Review

China Economic Review

China Financial Times

International Economics Bulletin

The China Perspective

China & World Economy

[Gold Majestic]

Speaking of Asia:

 

I'm sure most here (that follow fundamentals that is) observed the strong January PMI data from both China and India. China's PMI still obviously showed China’s manufacturing sector to be expanding (HSBC's PMI showed it rising), but the troubling sign for the Chinese was the spike in the prices paid indicator to 68.5, which rose the most out of all the components.

 

As we've been reading, the PBOC claims that it’s going to clamp down on this inflation. But we understand the only way to really do that is to allow the Yuan to rise against the US Peso. So we ask ourselves the big question, will China revalue their currency?

 

But more important than the question is what happens to Gold? IMO, Gold is the winner either way, whether China revalues or not.

 

More bullish for Gold would be if China fails to get inflation under control and maintains its currency peg to the US Peso as it would be forced to print Yuan and inflate just as fast as the US.

 

On the other hand, should China revalue, the US Peso would no doubt be hit against many currencies at the time. And given that China is such a big buyer of US debt, Treasuries would no doubt take a dive, pushing up long-term interest rates, while Gold would rally off the Dollar weakness and the fact that China would be effectively pushing her inflation back on to the US, as opposed to the US pushing its inflation on to the Chinese and the Chinese absorbing it through their dollar peg.

[bearvest]

GOLD:

 

One down, Two to go.

 

Stochastics broke free of its "embedded" or locked in position.

 

Ultimately, we should see A MACD cross and a violation of the downtrend line. If so, it should be "Off to the races."

 

Triangles represent diminishing sentiment. A right angled triangle tends to be a barrier--declining bearish sentiment and steady bullish sentiment. By and large, triangles are viewed as continuation patterns

 

The measured move from a triangle breakout is a complete retracement to its apex.

[Gold Majestic]

Tues 2/12/10 Market Observations

 

S&Ps:

We learned that pending sales rose 1% in December vs. a plunge of 16.4% in November with the difference of course being that the home buyer tax credit was renewed for December. Thus, once again, we have another data point telling us that the housing market cannot stand on its own without government subsidies and Fed monetization of MBS.

 

Financials:

The financials were mostly higher despite Volcker testifying on the Hill about his “Volcker Rule” where the jury still appears to be out on whether Congress will support the rule or not. The BKX rose a touch, JPM rose over 2%, BAC rose just over 1%, while C picked up over 2%, GE launched nearly 4%, etc.

 

On the Economy:

UPS rose a little after it reported its Q4 earnings advising that Economic forecasts indicate gradual improvement as 2010 unfolds. That the 1st Qtr will be the most challenging of the year for UPS with profitability only slightly better than last year. The company also said its international business was the strongest, specifically Asia, and that the US domestic economy remained weaker but was stabilizing. So, the trend of a weak US economy vs. more robust economies overseas clearly continues. Many other example, Caterpillar, etc.)

 

Crude oil jumped $2.78 to $75.89. GSCI jumped nearly 3%. CCI-CRB rose over 1%. DBA Ag ETF rose 1%. MOO also rose over a percent. GSCI Industrial Metals Index picked up over a percent. COMEX copper rose a little. FCX rose over a percent, PCU rose nearly 3%.

 

COMEX open interest (April Gold) rose a little to 478,576 contracts yesterday, indicating that much of yesterday’s rally was most likely short covering.

The 3-Month GOFO rate fell again, this time 1 bp to 0.17%. The GOFO rate continues telling us that the physical market remains especially tight despite the recent rally in the Gold price, which remains very bullish.

 

Gold stocks:

UBS did in fact downgrade the entire Gold Stocks sector today, so if we want to assign a reason for the heavier action in the stocks relative to the metal, that could have been it. One could also argue that there is some hesitation ahead of Friday’s jobs data. Then again, Gold stocks were up huge yesterday and due for a day of rest. In fact, those Gold stocks that were up the most yesterday seemed to be the heaviest today, and vice versa with today’s big winners. We saw the same pattern in the Oil stocks today to some degree as well. The trend of late continues to be that the Gold stocks react to moves in Gold / they don’t predict the moves.

 

On the brighter side for the Gold stock's, what we do know is that Gold mining margins are exploding right now. Therefore, the "half glass full" dictates the stocks are a bargain at current levels. When markets are wrong in pricing value among stock sectors, opportunities are presented, such as now (that's not to say those undervalued stocks can't become more so . . gulp, so be cautious here.)

 

But the way I see it, Gold stocks are priced at a Gold level of $950 or as if mining costs have risen significantly and neither one of these has occurred. For mining stocks, if costs are stable/rising slowly while Gold is rising, then mining earnings rise exponentially, as each $1 that the Gold price rises falls to the bottom line. Earnings are ultimately what drives stocks prices. We'll start to see those 4rth Qtr Gold Stocks' earnings reported soon enough.

 

All eyes on Friday's Jobs Report:

The response to Friday’s jobs data should push Gold/Gold stocks prices up through the key levels of the trend line that has been constraining the price. Regardless of what the data reveals, we all know that the employment picture in the US continues to be dismal. And the poor jobs market is due to structural problems that developed over 20 years of Greenspan's tenure. This predicament is going to continue to keep the Fed in its "Rock & Hard Place" position and probably even force it to do/extend in whatever fashion you want to call it, more monetization.

 

Why inflation will break out globally:

Other nations are seeing robust economic recoveries and are increasingly, albeit slowly, tightening their own monetary policy. Slowly because they don’t want their currencies too strong against the US Dollar. That’s why the Dollar should remain weak, with inflation trending higher globally, and that’s the best of all worlds for Gold.

 

The US Dollar index slipped just a touch and appears to be set up for a reversal to the downside especially given the extreme "long" positioning among the "dumb money" speculators. It’s a good bet that the reaction to Friday’s jobs data will once again be the catalyst for this anticipated move. The Pound rose a hair ahead of the BOE meeting later this week where reports have surfaced that the BOE may reintroduce its “QE” program just like the Fed will eventually be forced to do, imo. The CAD rose a little. But the AUD fell half a percent after the RBA failed to raise interest rates as the market had expected. This should serve as another example of how Foreign-CBs are reluctant to raise rates (when they shouldn’t be) because they don’t want their currencies too strong vs. a weak US Dollar.

 

It’s also another reason why inflation will break out globally too, not just in the US.