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Monthly Digger - February 2010


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Sorry, but still up-chuckling here . . .

 

First, is the fact that the so-called “spending freeze” doesn’t begin until 2011 supposedly, although I suspect the laughter in the room that burst out from some members of Congress when Obama said the freeze would begin “next year” once the economy supposedly improves was even more interesting. :rolleyes:

 

What are the odds that the US economy is still in the dumps in early 2011 when this freeze is supposedly going to occur? I’d say they’re pretty high, and that means even this “freeze” of 1/6th of the budget is likely just another empty promise, which is exactly the way the Chinese creditors of the US are no doubt viewing it right now too. Is it a coincidence that Treasury Bonds have been heavy despite the collapse in stocks?

 

Ok, it get's even better. Obama pledged to grow US exports by 100% over the next 5 years. Huh?

Now how exactly do you think he’s going to do that with a “strong dollar” that everyone and his brother that comprise the Deep Forest are so smack sure of?

 

Obama sets goal to double exports in 5 years

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...0012704921.html

 

So for anyone that was under the misconception that Obama’s imposing of the “Volcker rule” for banks was somehow an indication that he was also endorsing a "Volcker-like" strong dollar, this pledge should have been a wake-up call that Obama plans to continue the weak dollar policies of the prior Administration, not to mention the fact that he backed Chopper’s reappointment as “Fed head.”

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Looking at Friday's market action and making a few observations:

 

Q4 GDP growth estimate came in at 5.7%. But when we back out statistical adjustment for inventory changes (doesn’t affect real growth), the GDP rate falls to only 2.2%. On top of that, the GDP deflator was calculated at just 0.6%. Anyone surprised?

 

0.6% understates inflation by a country mile. Even IF we were to be very generous to use a 2.5% year-over-year CPI increase in December for this deflator, we would still end up with negative GDP growth for Q4 once we back out the inventory adjustment.

 

Yes, just another smoke and mirrors / get all excited about nothing government statistic.

 

If you doubt US stats, why do you blithely accept the 8%+ put out by the ChiComs?

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goose- corrections are difficult to access, it will be a few days to a week. top , and i dont know if we get there is 1160

dharma

 

 

Thanks Dharma. I'll sell my recent buys and look to get in lower. One other question, is this correction the back up the truck event you are looking for or will that one be later in the summer? TIA

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Hey GM, what do you think of Petaquilla Minerals PTQ.TO - on the otherside of Panama. New mine, ramping up to 100k oz/yr (currently on pace for about 70k). Upside potential both production wise and exploration. Low market cap., etc. I like it but don't own any yet. It's at the top of my list. Good to see ya back/posting. -AgentSmith

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ageka- the 08 buffaloes are more rare than any other year @this point. i bought 3 proof buffaloes last thursday they were 06s.

 

so, here is the bounce that i am looking for , then one more decline

dharma

 

 

All buffalos are rare here in Europe ; even the busines strikes

I grab what I can get close to melt on off days

There are very few "date" collectors outside french coins over here

They would not know a rare date in a St Gaudens Double Eagle if it bit them :unsure:

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If you doubt US stats, why do you blithely accept the 8%+ put out by the ChiComs?

 

"blithely accept the 8%+ put out by the ChiComs?"

 

farmir, I don't "blithely accept" anything, much less what news writers report.

 

I've made it a point to do my own "think & relate / connect the dots" research to assess what is important.

 

When you've asked me questions in the past, for example about GTU compared to CEF, or about China, etc., I initially responded with many paragraphs of discussion. You? Didn't even bother to reply. I've invited discussion from you in reply to other charges from you, but again no reply.

 

So what gives? You want to discuss or debate something about China?

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Hey GM, what do you think of Petaquilla Minerals PTQ.TO - on the otherside of Panama. New mine, ramping up to 100k oz/yr (currently on pace for about 70k). Upside potential both production wise and exploration. Low market cap., etc. I like it but don't own any yet. It's at the top of my list. Good to see ya back/posting. -AgentSmith

 

Hi Agent. I have some things to share and will send you a confidential email (as soon as I get squared away here, Tue/Wed?)

 

Not to say this stock will not be a moonshot driven by the momo power of the crowd, but I have my reservations about management.

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