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MrHanky

Dippers destroyed

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Yep still has a bullish, ride the trendicator look to the 10 yr weekly...

 

2 year futs went out at a new all time closing high......

Yeah, I remember that "huge friggin base" chart, and it's been keeping my itchy trigger finger off the button on TBT calls and TLT puts (which have been good to me). However, there is some serious divergence on it now, so my finger still itches. :D

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Well, after surveying the damage, my fartfolio managed pretty darn well....at least thus far.....through this spanking machine

 

2662263.jpg

 

The most damage was done to stuff that has had non-stop upside moves since last March, or in the prior few months:

 

To wit --

 

big.chart?symb=fcx&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=14920&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=2968&mocktick=1&rand=423

 

big.chart?symb=kol&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=3047460&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=693&mocktick=1&rand=5138

 

Even junk debt is taking a breather...albeit, a small one....at least thus far

 

big.chart?symb=jnk&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=3000124&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=4539&mocktick=1&rand=5991

 

My spec / garbagio holdings are dong just fine, thank you

 

However, even I concede that if this downside "drama fo yo moma" gains momentum, things could get ugly fast....but revists to things like S&PeePee 666.......puleaze <_<

I'll count that "puleaze" as a halfway through the decline reading on the TaunTOMeter. That would work out to, lemme see, about 1,000. Pretty savvy that tauTOMeter. :lol:

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I'll count that "puleaze" as a halfway through the decline reading on the TaunTOMeter. :lol:

 

Probably right

 

All I know, is when you see the "full" Mad Baby avatar, that should be pretty close to the bottom of this move

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kwave,

 

nice chart--amazing that it is an ABC down move with the 200x900 smack in the middle

 

Something like that is my wag at this point, I think we're going to slice through the 900 on the first pass. If we get a similar move on the QQQQ, I guess we'd get to about 38.5.... (completion of ABC)

 

post-1726-1264808772_thumb.png

 

Of course, I know nothing :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

Something along these lines?

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bozo.jpg

 

(I couldn't stop myself :P )

we're in a Depression

 

corporations will issue more common stock supply in desperation to raise cash

 

meanwhile demand for common stock will dry up as more people lose jobs and need to sell to eat

 

common stock dividends will be cut as operating cash flow will be insufficient to cover them

 

meanwhile interest rates on competing fixed-income security investments will rise

 

the combined effect of the above can indeed reamsult in a 400 print on the S&P, perhaps even 300, aSS shown in the previous chart above, which is merely a second leg of distance 850 like the first leg from 1550 to 700, this time from 1150 to 300

 

factoring in the effect of a strengthening dollar (vs. other faux, not versus real goods or services), could get us down to 200

 

git out

 

P.S. - in the laSSt Depression, the market corrected 89% from its high, that is a simple fact....this time an 89% correction from 1550 gives us a 170 print....don't tell me it cannot happen, it already happened before, in fact this time both the citizenry and the Gov't. are far deeper in debt, thus the unwinding we are currently experiencing could be even more brutal than in the 1930's

post-2457-1264813833_thumb.jpg

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a serious war with with either N Korea or Iran could print 'er at 100

 

if it goes nuclear, then 50

 

in that event I'd be a buyer at that point, since I'm long-term bullish

 

but I'd dollar-cost average in from 50 down to the 20 area

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a significant mishap in the unregulated off-book leveraged derivative markits could briefly take us to the -100 to -200 area on the S&P due to forced liquidation

 

butt I'm confident we'd bounce back into positive territory within a few weeks at the most, due to Gov't intervention

 

they're always looking out for our best interests

 

we can count on them to do the right thing

 

so there's really nothing to worry about

post-2457-1264813554.gif

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Probably right

 

All I know, is when you see the "full" Mad Baby avatar, that should be pretty close to the bottom of this move

Hmm. I thought you were going to change it to baby below 10,200 a few days back, and then today you said maybe after today's close. I figgered you were going to use the two as bull/bear avatars.

 

I don't for a minute buy your aw shucks act of you as the 'dumb' money, but rather see you as the voice of experience on what the big (fixed income) dough has done/is likely to do. I'm much more likely to be the one selling the low, though rarely the buyer of highs. :wacko: You are the yeast that helps my bread to rise and keep me from falling into the bearish pit of autocorrelation. :lol:

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Still guessing about 1020ish in the next few weeks....

 

If today was the month end tape paint,the market is in HUGE trouble

 

SPY Nov. 9 gap magnet and monthly reversal after retesting old supply from Oct. 2008

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1264814900.png

 

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1264815107.png

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WASHINGTON (AP) -- Regulators on Friday shut down two banks in Georgia, and one each in Florida and Minnesota, boosting to 13 the number of bank failures so far in 2010 on top of the 140 shuttered last year in the punishing economic climate.

 

As the economy has soured, with unemployment rising, home prices tumbling and loan defaults soaring, bank failures have accelerated and sapped billions out of the federal deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year.

 

The number of bank failures is expected to rise further this year. The FDIC expects the cost of resolving failed banks to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years.

 

Banks have been especially hurt by failed ream estate loans, both residential and commercial. Banks that had lent to seemingly solid businesses are suffering losses as buildings sit vacant. As development projects collapse, builders are defaulting on their loans.

 

If the economic recovery falters, defaults on the high-risk loans could spike. Many regional banks hold large concentrations of these loans. Nearly $500 billion in commercial ream estate loans are expected to come due annally over the next few years.

post-2457-1264815916.jpg

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