Speakeasy Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 Yep still has a bullish, ride the trendicator look to the 10 yr weekly... 2 year futs went out at a new all time closing high...... Yeah, I remember that "huge friggin base" chart, and it's been keeping my itchy trigger finger off the button on TBT calls and TLT puts (which have been good to me). However, there is some serious divergence on it now, so my finger still itches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 Well, after surveying the damage, my fartfolio managed pretty darn well....at least thus far.....through this spanking machine The most damage was done to stuff that has had non-stop upside moves since last March, or in the prior few months: To wit -- Even junk debt is taking a breather...albeit, a small one....at least thus far My spec / garbagio holdings are dong just fine, thank you However, even I concede that if this downside "drama fo yo moma" gains momentum, things could get ugly fast....but revists to things like S&PeePee 666.......puleaze I'll count that "puleaze" as a halfway through the decline reading on the TaunTOMeter. That would work out to, lemme see, about 1,000. Pretty savvy that tauTOMeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Joe Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 I'll count that "puleaze" as a halfway through the decline reading on the TaunTOMeter. Probably right All I know, is when you see the "full" Mad Baby avatar, that should be pretty close to the bottom of this move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 kwave, nice chart--amazing that it is an ABC down move with the 200x900 smack in the middle Something like that is my wag at this point, I think we're going to slice through the 900 on the first pass. If we get a similar move on the QQQQ, I guess we'd get to about 38.5.... (completion of ABC) Of course, I know nothing :lol: Something along these lines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 (I couldn't stop myself ) we're in a Depression corporations will issue more common stock supply in desperation to raise cash meanwhile demand for common stock will dry up as more people lose jobs and need to sell to eat common stock dividends will be cut as operating cash flow will be insufficient to cover them meanwhile interest rates on competing fixed-income security investments will rise the combined effect of the above can indeed reamsult in a 400 print on the S&P, perhaps even 300, aSS shown in the previous chart above, which is merely a second leg of distance 850 like the first leg from 1550 to 700, this time from 1150 to 300 factoring in the effect of a strengthening dollar (vs. other faux, not versus real goods or services), could get us down to 200 git out P.S. - in the laSSt Depression, the market corrected 89% from its high, that is a simple fact....this time an 89% correction from 1550 gives us a 170 print....don't tell me it cannot happen, it already happened before, in fact this time both the citizenry and the Gov't. are far deeper in debt, thus the unwinding we are currently experiencing could be even more brutal than in the 1930's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 a serious war with with either N Korea or Iran could print 'er at 100 if it goes nuclear, then 50 in that event I'd be a buyer at that point, since I'm long-term bullish but I'd dollar-cost average in from 50 down to the 20 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 TJ, thats our song! [flash=425,344]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b94beDQQtWI.swf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 a significant mishap in the unregulated off-book leveraged derivative markits could briefly take us to the -100 to -200 area on the S&P due to forced liquidation butt I'm confident we'd bounce back into positive territory within a few weeks at the most, due to Gov't intervention they're always looking out for our best interests we can count on them to do the right thing so there's really nothing to worry about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speakeasy Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 Probably right All I know, is when you see the "full" Mad Baby avatar, that should be pretty close to the bottom of this move Hmm. I thought you were going to change it to baby below 10,200 a few days back, and then today you said maybe after today's close. I figgered you were going to use the two as bull/bear avatars. I don't for a minute buy your aw shucks act of you as the 'dumb' money, but rather see you as the voice of experience on what the big (fixed income) dough has done/is likely to do. I'm much more likely to be the one selling the low, though rarely the buyer of highs. You are the yeast that helps my bread to rise and keep me from falling into the bearish pit of autocorrelation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenaciousG Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 After attempting to catch the falling knife in oil and all the other news noise this week I am beginning to see helicopters outside my house! [flash=425,344]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zA1hyqA6UTY.swf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranciscoTheMan Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 After attempting to catch the falling knife in oil and all the other news noise this week I am beginning to see helicopters outside my house! [flash=425,344]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zA1hyqA6UTY.swf painful, absolutely painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 was looking here as support zone, BUTT shows as backtest and low close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 I gotcher jobs rightcheer! $54 Billion in Nuclear-Power Loans “To create more of these clean-energy jobs, we need more production, more efficiency, more incentives. That means building a new generation of safe, clean nuclear-power plants in this country.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 Still guessing about 1020ish in the next few weeks.... If today was the month end tape paint,the market is in HUGE trouble SPY Nov. 9 gap magnet and monthly reversal after retesting old supply from Oct. 2008 http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1264814900.png http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1264815107.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted January 30, 2010 Report Share Posted January 30, 2010 WASHINGTON (AP) -- Regulators on Friday shut down two banks in Georgia, and one each in Florida and Minnesota, boosting to 13 the number of bank failures so far in 2010 on top of the 140 shuttered last year in the punishing economic climate. As the economy has soured, with unemployment rising, home prices tumbling and loan defaults soaring, bank failures have accelerated and sapped billions out of the federal deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year. The number of bank failures is expected to rise further this year. The FDIC expects the cost of resolving failed banks to grow to about $100 billion over the next four years. Banks have been especially hurt by failed ream estate loans, both residential and commercial. Banks that had lent to seemingly solid businesses are suffering losses as buildings sit vacant. As development projects collapse, builders are defaulting on their loans. If the economic recovery falters, defaults on the high-risk loans could spike. Many regional banks hold large concentrations of these loans. Nearly $500 billion in commercial ream estate loans are expected to come due annally over the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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