Monthly Digger - January 2010

[hedonicprocto]

Bearvest: you have mades ome nice calls. you see this as a bounce only? Or a bounce and reevaluate.

One concerning thing to me is the appearnace of the MACD weekly on HUI

only times it has looked like that were during violent downside sell offs

 

PNF close to a warning too:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2684038&cmd=show[s129091841]&disp=P

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Norcini mentions $1024 on his charting if $1080 gives way. Just because I expect a bounce doesn't mean I committed all my funds because I didn't. Regular markets setting up for Great Depression II, first a crash then this bear market rally and now the setup for another crash. It would be just like the manipulators to pull the rug out from underneath right here.

 

Inflation doesn't get confirmed until you have interest rates rise on government bonds. Maybe Australia and China leading there but US will buy its own paper if no one else will while waiting for a recovery to kick in that will never come causing a greater meltdown. RE rates can go up, CC rates can go up, tax rates can go up, consumer prices can go up but artificially keeping interbank rates low is trouble. Announcing suspension of money market redemption when necessary is just a big warning sign. They know they can't create money fast enough to cover a bank run.

[AgentSmith]

Purchased AUY $12 March calls for .24

 

Going to be very very right, or very very wrong in all of this.

 

edit: and a few more here at .20. Just to add insult to injury ya know. All a spec. share of capital but the risk/reward is here.

[faramir]

I guess I admire anyone who has the guts to buy in Venezuela. Chavez is a nut. I don't own anything there. I guess Rusoro is covered, though, being Russian. He's not too nutty to be careful about who he pisses off. Countries with a track record of nationalization are at the bottom of my list, there's too much else to choose from. Which is not to say investing there won't yield a good return. I'm just not comfortable with that risk. I've taken on plenty of other risk. Whether we go a little lower or not, longer term I see this as a nice buy zone.

 

I agree. Venezuela is at the bottom of the list. I don't even trust Russia so I avoid Kinross. Nor do I trust the leftist South African regime, or China. In fact I don't trust British Columbia, where I live, so I won't touch any company that has solely its production in BC.

[faramir]

Yeah, I am stuck between being giddy like a kid at the candy store and nervous as hell. I have itchy fingers looking to get some ABX, but then worried we are entering another multi-month ass kicking.

 

I have to confess I believed the S&P was heading for 1200, so this sell off really surprised me in the broad markets.

[Dharmaeye]

I agree. Venezuela is at the bottom of the list. I don't even trust Russia so I avoid Kinross. Nor do I trust the leftist South African regime, or China. In fact I don't trust British Columbia, where I live, so I won't touch any company that has solely its production in BC.

 

 

I live in Alberta and can understand your concern with BC.

Alberta business still doesn't trust the Alberta Government after the consequences to the energy policies has had. This is a very rare event.

Takes me back to the consequences that the Canadian Energy Policy by the Federal government - Marc Lalonde- had in the early 1980's in damaging Western Canada.

Remember BC defaulted on it Bonds in the 30's. and Alberta forced the term "mortgage" to only apply to the property and not the people involved - thus in default they got the property and thats it. Those days of keeping the Banks honest are over.

[Private Skidmark]

The bee-zaar action continues here. This would be more entertaining if I didn't own so much of it.

 

 

Thanks for the kind words, dharma.

 

Well, it's definitely stomach turning like good bottoms are supposed to be. But I'm not sure we've seen the low after today's action. I went about 50% as long as I planned to and am waiting on the sidelines with the balance. Anybody else think we may see the HUI 310-320 (maybe even sub-300 by a little to make us think the world is ending) area after a few weeks of bounce to maybe 420-430? That would be quite a correction, nearly 40% off the high. I think on a bounce I'll lighten up this 50% I went in to prepare for a lower low. I'd still be about 70% long then in certificates.

[Dharmaeye]

Bank of America web site is down???

Now that's scary.

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Looks like the manipulators taking their short of miners gains then go over and try to beat the spot price down. Not working to well as spot showing tremendous strength compared to pressure from the US$ and oil. Interesting that mining charts in need of repair and spot chart seems technically sound at this point in time. Looking for a map of uncharted territory is futile.

[Surfer Dood Doo]

Surfer:

 

Noticed that you didn't share G.M.'s "sell signal" on the 12th with us.

 

It would have been a first "sell" and a monumental event from my experience

 

I didn't post on the 12th.

 

But I did on the 11th. And again on the 13th, late.

 

Maybe, with your inside track, you'd like to share, in the future.

 

bv . gm gave a caution sell on jan8 and sell confirm jan12. his sell is for people who trade. there isway to much to explain an over my head. so you need to pm him yourself if you want the info. sure worth the effort if you ask me. guy has been right so far and makin me lots a money. sandspring is in guyana and simler to kilometer 88 in venzuela. so far a double for me. took half my money of the table so far. no sell call needed as that is what your suppose to do when you buy the bottom according to gm. hope this helps. chuck

[Charmin]

January went by fast. It's brutal out there - even the wind and cold outside. I'll start a new thread shortly.

 

Thanks for all who gathered around the fire and shared their insights.

[Charmin]

I will unpin this monthly thread and leave it open with a new February thread started

[bearvest]

Copper:

 

I covered my base metals shorts today (HMD.TO).

 

To me, it looks like wave iii of 3 completed or is near complete.

 

Wave iv of 3 or wave 4 bounces can rattle your cage.

 

The Itchy chart shows a market that may be rolling over.

 

As an aside, I don't trade Itchy. I only use it for trend.

 

I trade Elliott, Stochastics, and look to the candles to help me.

 

From a longer term, the market is neutral. There are only 3 waves on the chart, so no trend-setting impulse down is apparent. Price is within the cloud. Both the red and the blue lines are above the cloud.

 

Itchy short term indicators (which are always lagging as they are based on moving averages) are short term bearish. Both the red line and the blue line are falling. The blue "fast" line crossed down below the red "signal" line. The green line crossed below price.

 

Stochastics is now Dover Sole. As a trader that's my "Get out of Dodge" signal. It may lock in under 20. But I'm done with this trade until I see some clarity in its trend.

[bearvest]

Bearvest: you have mades ome nice calls. you see this as a bounce only? Or a bounce and reevaluate.

One concerning thing to me is the appearnace of the MACD weekly on HUI

only times it has looked like that were during violent downside sell offs

 

PNF close to a warning too:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2684038&cmd=show[s129091841]&disp=P

 

I haven't seen a market this Dover Sole since I started trading with computer technicals 8 years ago.

 

There are only 3 waves on the chart. The plethora of red candles in the 3rd wave is consistent with a Wave C. So is the plunge in Daily MACD.

 

But there is clear evidence of declining momentum in MACD's histogram, Stochastics, and %b. And that ugly red candle on Friday is only kissing, but not penetrating the lower Bollinger Band.

 

I'm concerned about the close below 377.20 and the possibility that there's an irregular Head and Shoulders pattern on the chart.

 

But that's what trading's about. I'm very long the miners, but not into margin--yet.

[traderfromhell]

Nearly done buying HL as of Friday's close. We still might get that last capitulation flush next week but I think Hecla trades closer to 10 than 0 over the next few years. No margin.