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DrStool

Where the Bull Ends

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It finally dawned on me what you are doing...

 

...to which I say

 

post-6859-1261935112.jpg

Well I'm dumb and don't get it, so can you 'splain whatcha mean?

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we are all in the same boat as humans.

If "we" are all in the same boat that the humans are in, what are "we"? :huh:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol:

 

Aunt Cletis asked me to post this.

post-837-1261939178.jpg

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That is the basis of the Larry Summers' Behavioral Economics theory as I understand it. A booming stock should pump up the public confidence, get them to start spending and also solve a lot of problems like the underfunded pension funds across the nation. ;)

 

Remember to think like a criminal. They have to move all the money available into stocks.... before they can take it.

and/ or Weimar Germany where the stock went up with the fiat down until they both collapsed completely.

Suspect will have thrashing around for years with inflation and deflation destroying just about everything.

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and where is the Tony DOW going ?....30,000 ?

 

reading a lot of stuff on the mo mo boards....people have gone nuts,,,,420 on Crapple...350 on Scamazon....cause of a farking "tablet" and "kindle"...this is batsheet twisted crap....gadgets jammed up every orifice............

 

9 month's ago this was the worst economy since the Great Depression...

 

Now IBM 300..............maybe so............nothing matters anymore anyway.

My father in law was in town for xmas - they just shipped out. He's in his mid-70s, a seven-figure committed Cramerican with way-y-y-y-y too much exposure to momo for his age. He couldn't sleep last March - was contemplating a sale of his house as he was getting completely destroyed. Now, he's smiling about all the Apple and Amazon and Google and other stuff that's made him whole again. Tells me about some of the stocks he's bought recently on the advice of CNBS. He says he bought AOL because it was "cheap." Starts asking me whether I've heard of this or that mid-cap ticker that he's relaying from the recent Barron's - never heard of any of 'em.

 

My wife & I have given up trying to convince him to reposition his high beta portfolio. Makes me sad.

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That is the basis of the Larry Summers' Behavioral Economics theory as I understand it. A booming stock market should pump up the public confidence, get them to start spending and also solve a lot of problems like the underfunded pension funds across the nation. One might assume that the Adninistration, going into the election, would like like to see a booming stock market, and I think their minions like GS can make that happen as long as there are no regulatory problems or impediments.;)

 

It may happen but that is what many said last year heading into the election. There was more stake then to, the threat of a liberal coming into office.

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There's not enough cash out there to pump up both stocks and bonds simultaneously over an extended period. Somebody's gonna have to pay. We are fast approaching the limits of how far they can push this. Before you know it, it will be upon us.

 

I've seen total bear crapitulation before, just like this.

 

July and October 2007.

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That is the basis of the Larry Summers' Behavioral Economics theory as I understand it. A booming stock market should pump up the public confidence, get them to start spending and also solve a lot of problems like the underfunded pension funds across the nation. One might assume that the Adninistration, going into the election, would like like to see a booming stock market, and I think their minions like GS can make that happen as long as there are no regulatory problems or impediments.;)

I don't know Summers' views, but it seems to me that far more important than a booming stock market for public confidence is some recovery in residential real estate. The shareholdings for most Americans is pretty limited - what limited wealth they'd accumulated through, say, 2007 existed as equity in their home. You see these stats about 1/4th of all Americans now being upside down in their home - I believe that will continue to trump everything related to asset values & consumer confidence until clear recovery is underway and home values are going up again.

 

Before the real estate crash, I think a link between the stock market and public confidence made more sense - back then, home values were assumed never to decline, and therefore, the stock market was the easiest public barometer of economic prospects, and thereby, public confidence.

 

I think most Americans now believe that a rising stock market raises few yachts, and its performance on the upside isn't going to generate the same dynamics we might have assumed of them in years past. Downside performance for the major indices, however, would confirm for many on Main Street the financial pain they feel.

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There's not enough cash out there to pump up both stocks and bonds simultaneously over an extended period. Somebody's gonna have to pay. We are fast approaching the limits of how far they can push this. Before you know it, it will be upon us.

 

I've seen total bear crapitulation before, just like this.

 

July and October 2007.

 

 

I hope you are right for the sake of my shorts but this struck a chord with me...

 

Let's look at the connection bettween the Dollar and SPX - they had for a loong time been connection inversly. Falling dollar resulted in rising SPX. Then suddenly something happened in the beginning of december. The relation ship stopped working - it was when the dollar started it's correction against the downtrend. A rising dollar failed to make SPX go lower. That.s when we got the first, "the dog didn't bark" clue (Solution to a Sherlock Holmes Mystery). When something that is supposed to happen, doesn't happen - watch out!

 

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...114508&st=0

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and where is the Tony DOW going ?....30,000 ?

 

reading a lot of stuff on the mo mo boards....people have gone nuts,,,,420 on Crapple...350 on Scamazon....cause of a farking "tablet" and "kindle"...this is batsheet twisted crap....gadgets jammed up every orifice............

 

9 month's ago this was the worst economy since the Great Depression...

 

Now IBM 300..............maybe so............nothing matters anymore anyway.

 

May be 30K for the Tony Dow. Who knows? The government is doing a "Fake It 'Til U Make It" program. Jack up the stock market. And the bond market. I don't see why they couldn't do both, using Helo Ben's methods. And of course they are paying people to buy houses. They could fail, I suppose, but they are leaving no stone unturned. As long as no one audits the Fed or the Treasury or makes the banks do real accounting rather than funny accounting, it can probably be done. Government and banks working together "doing God's work" of creating (money) out of thin air. How spiritual. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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There's not enough cash out there to pump up both stocks and bonds simultaneously over an extended period. Somebody's gonna have to pay. We are fast approaching the limits of how far they can push this. Before you know it, it will be upon us.

 

I've seen total bear crapitulation before, just like this.

 

July and October 2007.

They can let treasury yields rise a little bit,but if long term bonds move more than another 75 BP or so.......it will be big trouble.At some point they will have to send the $$$ to treasuries.

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How nice. The Shell Oil company needs someone to accept transfer of some of their funds out of Nigeria, and they have chosen me to receive them.

 

:P

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My father in law was in town for xmas - they just shipped out. He's in his mid-70s, a seven-figure committed Cramerican with way-y-y-y-y too much exposure to momo for his age. He couldn't sleep last March - was contemplating a sale of his house as he was getting completely destroyed. Now, he's smiling about all the Apple and Amazon and Google and other stuff that's made him whole again. Tells me about some of the stocks he's bought recently on the advice of CNBS. He says he bought AOL because it was "cheap." Starts asking me whether I've heard of this or that mid-cap ticker that he's relaying from the recent Barron's - never heard of any of 'em.

 

My wife & I have given up trying to convince him to reposition his high beta portfolio. Makes me sad.

Sounds familiar. I co-manage my Dad's portfolio. It's all about picking stocks for him.

 

He talks now & then about how there are "damn good companies" that are or were "cheap". Sometimes he actually seems to get a little affronted by the idea that the market suggested one of these damn good companies wasn't a damn good company, as evidenced by its stock price going down.

 

I just leave that dialogue alone. It's like arguing about who would win a fight between Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny. Totally surreal.

 

Plus, I need to preserve credibility, for when I'll really need him to listen.

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Sounds familiar. I co-manage my Dad's portfolio.

 

BWHAHAHA

 

My parents barely have 2 nickels to rub together, they survive off Social Security and Medicare

 

Good News though...

 

"When ya ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"

_______________________________

 

They came to the US (Brooklyn) from England (by way of Canada) with $300, me and an old 1954 Chevy 4-door

 

Looks like there going out the same way....$300 and a 1996 Malibu

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Its gonna be fine at least till march. Till that moment, let get to 1200 on sp500 please. earn easy money. "Deluge after us".

I can get my brain around the "top in Q1" scenario, although nothing would come as a surprise.

 

Never seen a year with this sort of carnivalesque "Main Event" type of astro setup. Ever.

 

Expect anything.

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BWHAHAHA

 

My parents barely have 2 nickels to rub together, they survive off Social Security and Medicare

 

Good News though...

 

"When ya ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"

The drag is that he's excellent at buy timing - was amazed when I went through his stuff just how many positions he'd bought at the Oct 02 and Mar 09 bottoms.

 

He's just been bad, really ratshit-awful, at knowing when to sell.

 

Definitely could have been multi-$M retired by now, but lost 80% in the dot com meltdown and rode 2007 down from the top too. Whooof.

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