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MrHanky

The best the bears can do?

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SPU managed to get into the upper half of the day's trading range and above KWave's daily 20 MA.

 

But what may be worse is that the SPU closed 12.6 pts above the lowest low for the past 3 days that was set this morning. Still way too much resilience in this market thanks to the market mechanics/rules used/enforced.

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New highs on the NYSE Advance/Decline ...

 

post-1110-1259963631_thumb.png

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Since according to Doc's post "we the people" own a good chunk of AIG, now that Dubai is seemingly getting closer to default with people saying they will not agree to a standstill, how much is that going to cost the taxpayer from the CDSs that were possibly written by AIG and other entities we have ownership interests in?

 

Will this be more transfer of our wealth to Goldman Sachs who may own some of those CDSs?

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Bears couldn't quite get it done today...but am seeing early signs of distress in many of the ramopola stocks like AAPL IBM BIDU AMZN GOOG etc.

 

So I'll give da bears another chance to hammer it home on Monday. Still liking the chances for skiing the slopes of the Rockies on the NYA chart. Above those peaks, and we head for outer space....

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Anecdotal Info-ma-tion

 

Spoke to my buddy who drives a "big rig" for UPS....and has 25 years with UPS

 

Most of the stuff he moves is inventory for large big box stores, retailers, etc.

 

He said they are friggin dead, like he has never seen before in his tenure with the company

 

His buddies that roll FredEx ® trucks are sayin' the same thing

 

Temp hiring which usually soars for Xmas season to keep things "a movin'"....not so much this year....almost non-existant, just don't need the bodies

 

Front line, boots on the ground type of stuff

 

Just sayin'

 

Go Big Brown!

dog-poop2.jpg

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OMG

 

Peter Schiff

 

Please stop embarrassing yourself by going on Lost Money

 

Schiff: "I don't know what you guys are talking about, gold was being bought at the end of the session, not sold..."

 

Eddie: {Jumping up and down in the background, shaking his head in NO NO NO epileptic seizure mode}

 

Merisa: {giggle giggle giggle}

 

Let's see who is correct....um....looks like buyin to me......Hey Eddie, go _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ !!!

 

gold.gif

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The great bear in Japan may have just ended....

 

We got the kind of move I was (and still am) looking for on the SPX if it starts very soon, on EWJ, with a perfect kiss of the 200 day, and the nikkei has now closed back over 10K

 

 

 

The weekly just closed back above the 13 and 72 MA, with RSI cranking back over 50.

 

 

 

But the monthly may be telling the story here. Note the recent kink up in the 13 month MA, that was just backtested. As you can see, it usually does not pay to fade the kink over the longer term.

 

This market has been in a downtrend for 20 years, basically the same amount of time that the Dow floundered before blasting out in 1949.

 

I would expect a battle near 12, but if it clears that next year, the next secular bull may be underway in Japan.

 

I would probably use Nikkei 10K as the line in the sand from this point forward.

 

 

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Reporting from Washington and New York - The government's bailout of the banking system is turning out to be far from the fiscal sinkhole so many had feared.

 

The $700-billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP, was reluctantly created by Congress last fall despite criticism that it was a huge risk that would only encourage the profligate ways of Wall Street. But in recent months, tens of billions of dollars have begun flowing back from banks to the U.S. Treasury.

 

Bank of America Corp.'s decision this week to repay one of the largest chunks -- $45 billion -- reflects the stunning turnaround of the financial industry and demonstrates that the government's unpopular medicine appears to have saved the patient. And the price tag isn't as large as expected.

 

"It turns out, actually, TARP -- as wildly unpopular as it has been -- has been much cheaper than any of us anticipated," President Obama said Thursday at a White House summit on creating jobs.

 

barf

 

Media lapdogs are doing all they can to convince us that the worst is over, and recovery is starting.

 

Then there are the guys on the ground like TJ mentioned.... main street sees things that are totally dead. But you won't see an article about that, ever. One of these sides will resolve itself.

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And on a similar note, the great ramp in the Yen may be nearing and end as well. We got the close back over 90 on USD/JPY today. Now we see if we get follow through next week.

 

Pretty powerful looking reversal candle on weekly....

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QEII is officially floated. From Brad DeLong, a good transmitter of beltway thinking.

 

oe Gagnon, by striking contrast, has a coherent and informed view of the macroeconomic situation. Joe, via Tim Duy, via Mark Thoma: >Joe Gagnon: The Case for $6 Trillion More Monetary Stimulus: A lively debate is under way between those who want more fiscal stimulus to create jobs and those who worry that our national debt is already too high. Both sides are ignoring the obvious alternative... easier monetary policy in all the main developed economies.... >[T]he United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom are suffering from historically high rates of unemployment... forecasters see weak economic growth and lackluster job creation over the next two to three years.... Clearly, we need more macroeconomic stimulus to reduce the suffering and allay the long-term damage caused by persistent unemployment as well as to ward off the risk of harmful deflation. But record peacetime fiscal deficits and rapidly rising public debt point to monetary policy, rather than fiscal policy, as the way to go. >Short-term interest rates already have been reduced to near zero. But the Federal Reserve and its counterparts have other tools to use for monetary stimulus... large-scale purchases of long-term bonds. There is considerable scope for additional purchases... combined purchases of an additional $6 trillion in long-term bonds designed to push 10-year bond yields down another 75 basis points.

 

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/12/joe-...aily+Journal%29

 

The Gagnon is a Pete Peterson guy. Article summarizing his great new QEII plan here

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchang...more_fed_easing

 

Namely: buy an additional $2 trillion in government bonds, with an average maturity of 7 years. That would be in addition to the $1.75 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related debt it has already almost finished buying.

 

Mr Gagnon, extrapolating from the reaction to the current purchase programme, estimates the additional $2 trillion would lower Treasury yields about 0.75 percentage points. That, he reckons, would lower private borrowing rates, boost stock prices 13%, and lower the dollar by 5%. The combined stimulative impact would equal a 1.75 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate, and lift GDP by 3% after two years.

 

Obviously you can't make this stuff up. The logic is iron clad and unassailable. This is not if it's when. Do we need another scare to get it going. In any case maybe TJ is right. Ben goes overboard, for of all things, not being loose enough.

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QEII is officially floated. From Brad DeLong, a good transmitter of beltway thinking.

 

oe Gagnon, by striking contrast, has a coherent and informed view of the macroeconomic situation. Joe, via Tim Duy, via Mark Thoma: >Joe Gagnon: The Case for $6 Trillion More Monetary Stimulus: A lively debate is under way between those who want more fiscal stimulus to create jobs and those who worry that our national debt is already too high. Both sides are ignoring the obvious alternative... easier monetary policy in all the main developed economies.... >[T]he United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom are suffering from historically high rates of unemployment... forecasters see weak economic growth and lackluster job creation over the next two to three years.... Clearly, we need more macroeconomic stimulus to reduce the suffering and allay the long-term damage caused by persistent unemployment as well as to ward off the risk of harmful deflation. But record peacetime fiscal deficits and rapidly rising public debt point to monetary policy, rather than fiscal policy, as the way to go. >Short-term interest rates already have been reduced to near zero. But the Federal Reserve and its counterparts have other tools to use for monetary stimulus... large-scale purchases of long-term bonds. There is considerable scope for additional purchases... combined purchases of an additional $6 trillion in long-term bonds designed to push 10-year bond yields down another 75 basis points.

 

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/12/joe-...aily+Journal%29

 

The Gagnon is a Pete Peterson guy. Article summarizing his great new QEII plan here

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchang...more_fed_easing

 

Namely: buy an additional $2 trillion in government bonds, with an average maturity of 7 years. That would be in addition to the $1.75 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related debt it has already almost finished buying.

 

Mr Gagnon, extrapolating from the reaction to the current purchase programme, estimates the additional $2 trillion would lower Treasury yields about 0.75 percentage points. That, he reckons, would lower private borrowing rates, boost stock prices 13%, and lower the dollar by 5%. The combined stimulative impact would equal a 1.75 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate, and lift GDP by 3% after two years.

 

Obviously you can't make this stuff up. The logic is iron clad and unassailable. This is not if it's when. Do we need another scare to get it going. In any case maybe TJ is right. Ben goes overboard, for of all things, not being loose enough.

 

I guess I'm just not that smart. If debt is what got us here...why is the solution more debt? Shall we create another housing bubble with the ultra low rates? Seems a little like saying the way to sober up after binge drinking is to have another drink or three. Crazy I tell you. <_<

 

I gotta go pick something fer dinner....

 

post-1110-1259974843.jpg

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I guess I'm just not that smart. If debt is what got us here...why is the solution more debt? Shall we create another housing bubble with the ultra low rates? Seems a little like saying the way to sober up after binge drinking is to have another drink or three. Crazy I tell you. <_<

 

I gotta go pick something fer dinner....

 

post-1110-1259974843.jpg

 

 

hhmmmmmmm...looks like dessert to me! Keep diggin kids.

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