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Everything posted by BreakOut

  1. Back of the envelope proctology points to 3500 as the next target (1.61 x move from January peak to today’s new 52 week low) subtracted from the March high. (Oops 4056 was the intraday 52 week low. Apologies to TS Elliott and Primary Wave 3 of 1)
  2. I’m re-reading The Great Gatsby and this reads like a page out of it.
  3. “Money Magazine Says 10 Year Yield May Hit 10%! 4/25/22” Textbook headline for a counter-trend rally, even if it turns out to be right.
  4. Your chart looks like liquidity sloshing around in my emptying gas tank.
  5. Meaty stuff. “My heirs will inherit a pied-a-terre on the French Riviera. “ Not bad at all.
  6. Warren’s all-in buy on Oxy is still a bit of a head scratcher for me. Sure, he was already in big, but he keeps adding more, as J pointed out. They are unhedged, so the current oil and NG windfall goes right to their bottom line. Still, Using late 2021 oil prices and recent 10-k, the present value of future cash flows is only around $31 per share. Moody’s recently upgraded the substantial debt, but it is still “speculative” grade. Timing is everything, they say. And Warren has better info than I do.
  7. Remember the good old days when GS made a profit 91 out of 91 days in a quarter? PS Are bear market rallies often shaped like an inverted N?
  8. Today might have been the best day to unload since the inception of specie.
  9. 1932, 1982, 2003 bottoms were from multi-year drops or flats with false “capitulations” along the way. 2009, 2011, and 2020 bottoms were brief and Fed-supported recoveries were quick. If and when we get another drop, if the Fed truly has lost its restorative powers due to inflation, buying the dips too early could again become a thing due to paradigms and mass conditioning.
  10. Frazier came into the ring today looking as fit and healthy as I have seen him. No doubt this will be another great day for him…
  11. I remember TNX hit 5.1 about 15 years ago and have been waiting for it to get back there ever since. I’m a patient guy, but…
  12. Drove the Turnpike across in ‘79. Even or odd license plates?
  13. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-07/stock-market-the-ugly-truth-about-bubbles-is-everyone-loses
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