BreakOut

Back of the envelope (4800-3500) x 1.61 = 2100. So if we get the 50% S&P retracement to 4150, Primary wave 3 could drop us all the way to 2050 or so. Fibonacci left the building in 2010 when the Fed blew it away and made a mockery of it. In a potentially Fed-free environment, we might see it regain some stature. Could apply to a continued rise in LT interest rates, as well. At least until the QE machine starts up again, then all bets are off.

One that I thought was gone seems to be back.

S&P 4000 was essentially the 38.2% retracement from the January 1 drop. Countertrend rally has brought out enough bulls for this to now be Primary Wave 3, The Great Humbler. A jam up to the 50% retracement of 4150 for a last high during the first week in January would also be poetic. However, the quietness of this board and the disappearance of other bear boards suggests that Frazier might really be in the house this time. Really.

Quote from Jimbo: “You can then derive a Ponzi ratio for an asset... The ponzi value of the asset divided by the intrinsic value of the asset” At present, the Ponzi Index PI=3.14159.

Capitulation took forever in 2000-2002. Not even in the lexicon today.

And that, Little Johnny, is how Dr. Stepan N. Stool was conceived…

Should we be buying them?

https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/ Interesting Worldle today. (Something to do while we clip money-market coupons).

Nice photo composition.

Biggest problem with Oxy was its debt. Warren among the few who could play both sides if it ever got in danger of going TU. Oil bull fixed it anyway.

Shenanigan Graffiti "Where were thine in '29?"

Eureka! That explains it - this is a Bagholder Exchange Rally.

Anti-Fed week. Might take the whole week.

Entrevaux is cool. Enjoy!