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Everything posted by Jimbo

  1. FEAR STARTING TO CREEP IN I said September was probably the top. Apple at 40 times earnings was just rediculous. Especially given the poor macro economy. Apple to lose half from the top.
  2. INSIDE THE FED MIND Now that they have got asset prices above the Feb highs I think they have taken their foot of the pedal. Indeed I would'nt be suprised if they let the market fall into the election.
  3. WHAT IS THE FED The FED is fundamentally a "Leverage Dealer" When the party is over the Fed comes along and offers free leverage ot all the leverage junkies to keep the party going.
  4. I did suggest some time ago. That an "Avoid October strategy" Might be enough to put a top in in September. I think this is palying out right now.
  5. A VERY INTERESTING PAPER Most academic papers on finanace arnt very useful. Just read one that is: Of the 25000 listed US companies since 1926 .....$34 Trillion in value has been created. BUT....ALL OF THAT VALUE. Was created by only 1000 of those 25000 companies Thats right....4% of the companies created all the value, The other 24000 created NO value. Think of that .....you have a portfolio of 25 companies....only 1 will create long term value!!!!!!!!!! The problem is....which company will be in the 4%??????????? It gets worse Of the $34 tr
  6. TAKING GAINS OF THE TABLE I think a lot if players will start taking gains off the table in September Wanting to avoid October May be enough to put a top in !!!!!!
  7. THE PRICE OF AN APPLE PART 2 Now selling for 40 times earnings. The year started as 2008 and is ending as 2000 Amazing what 3 trillion from the Fed can do. Well wait until September. Beware October seems to be a growing theme. Theres a blow off top somewhere up here I just dont know where.
  8. I SMELL THAT MILLENIUM SMELL Yes it smells like the year 2000, Complete parabola stock market. Ridiculous valuations. Re the Fed pinning the bond market Note I made the WW2 rate suppression analogy in a post here back in December 2019. Im surprised Bank depositors hav'nt started fleeing...... Banks in Australia are offering 1% rates when inflation is 2%.
  9. UNCLE WARREN GETS GOLD So Uncle Warren dumps the financials and gets gold. Even he sees the writing on the Wall for the US financial industrial complex. And the writing says "Not pretty not pretty at all" In an inflationary scenario the market cap of the american banks in real terms will fall greatly. As the real value of their capital and deposits (i.e. as measured in gold) are destroyed. Look at the charts of Argentinian banks if you want to see what happens....... When the FED goes "print wild".
  10. THE PRICE OF AN APPLE Apple now at 34 times earnings.....ridiculous.
  11. NEW ETF SUGGESTION Since bankruptcy pump and dump is now all the rage (here's looking at you liar....oops I mean Wire...card). We need an ETF to take advantage of all the robin hooders who are pumping chapter 11 stocks. We need a catchy name for marketing purposes. How about the "Sheriff of Nottingham ETF".
  12. A MODERN FAIRY TALE Once apon a time there was a fairy princess stock market. She was very over valued and wanted to go down. But the big bad FED troll wouldnt let her.
  13. BANKRUPTCY PUMP AND DUMP Thats all Hertz stock is Bankruptcy pump and dump And even the company wanted to get in on the action too...... By issuing stock. The beneficiaries of course being the bond holders. But they were too late to the party As the stock is now in the DUMP phase. What they needed to do is get approval for the stock issue BEFORE the company went into chapter 11. Then they could have used a smart algorithm to dump (oops I mean issue/sell ) the stock to all the robinhooders To maximise their take while in chapter 11.
  14. THE FED PAVLOV RALLY Its just rolling over SImple. Where is the PAVLOV ETF when you need it??????
  15. TWO PERFECT TRADING SET UPS PROVIDED BY THE FED The Fed has provided two perfect trading sets ups for traders to go long in the past year: 1/ In late September 2019 when they threw $500 Billion of REPO to cover up the signal that the REPO market was out of money. That money did'nt go back into bonds, it went straight into an already over valued stock market. Pavlov rally number one. 2/ In late March 2020 when it threw $3 trillion at the markets. Pavlov rally number two. Given the way the Fed is behaving it will provide more opportunities in the future.
  16. THE FED PAVLOV RALLY The size of the rally has been rather rediculous. Looks like it will now roll over.
  17. AND THERE WILL BE TOO MANY SIGNS TO COUNT There were so many signs 1/ The beakdown in the Kraft Heinz over leveraged complex. 2/ The Occidental deal with Anadarko insanity. 3/ The Wework implosion before it could IPO at the joke valuation. 4/ All the IPO pump and dump explosions. 5/ The Dope stock bubble imploding. 6/ The $500 Billion REPO madness from the FED to cover up the REPO market explosion in September 2019. 7/ The major wobbles in Apples stock price....remember Apple has been the leader stock in the whole bull market. 8/ The whole shale oil
  18. I HAVE EXITED MY MARCH POSITION I sold my equity position I took on in end March today. I just think that the probability of the trade still being the correct one has deteriorated below the 50% line. I was 90% confident in buying in end March that we would have a nice bounce. Powered to course by the pavlovian response to the Fed bail out. But the pavlovian response is long in the tooth. It appears to be running out of steam. And reality is intruding in a big way. Because stocks arnt cheap at these levels. And the economy has yet to recover. Lo
  19. A DOUBLE PAVLOV So we now have a double pavlov Thats where the Fed had trained all the market players to show a "Buy" response when it whistles "bail out". And the Leveraged Industrial Complex has trained the Fed to show a "Bail out" response when it whistles "we cant leverage up any more" A double pavlov.
  20. THE FED HAS BEEN WELL TRAINED As a domesticated animal the Fed has been well trained by its owner. Who owns the FED The financial industrial complex or more accurately The leveraged Industrial complex (LIC) Its main members are: 1/ The US Government .....leveraged to the hilt...defecit $1 trillion a year 2/ The banks leveraged 10-15 to one. 3/ All the hedge funds engaged in leverage trades. 4/ All the leveraged home owners (and by extension the owners of MBS). 5/ All the leverged commercail property owners (and by extension all the lenders
  21. THE FED PUT....what is its value So the feds going to buy junk but only junk that wasnt junk before the virus came. Federally sanctioned debt. Its still a bail out. The fed is becoming a real debt junkie. Perveyor of moral hazard to the financial markets. How much is the Fed put worth right now. Probably over $10 trillion. Its not trading like treasuries any more Its trading like gold!!!!!!!!!!
  22. THE FED RECAPITALISED WALL STREET [alternative title: Not a Care in the World]. No good crisis should go to waste. Surprised there has'nt been more discussion of the CARE Act which sets aside $454 Billion to bail out wall street. The Fed will print $454 billion in electronic dollars. It will then buy $454 Billion of US treasuries. The US Treasury will then give the money back to the FED. The Fed will then put it in a SIV which it can leverage 10 to 1. The SIV will then buy all the toxic crap from Wall Street presumably at 100 cents in the dollar. Th
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