Jimbo

SOME MORE NEEDED ETF's Where are the Crypto short ETF's????? We could even tokenise the idea....... A crypto coin that rises in value as another crypto coin falls in value!!!!! Short Coin!!!! Bust Coin!!! Dust Coin!!!

BURNT OFFERINGS Its been fun watching the God of Value wash away the wealth transfer vehicles in the river of reality. But he has only been able to do so because the God of Money (FEDUS) has allowed him too. But for how long will FEDUS resist the desire to medle in monetary affairs and feed the asset markets print addiction. Only time and stress in the bond market will tell. In the meantime the WTV's have been offered up as burnt offerings in the Eccles temple to FEDUS.

THE GOD OF PONZI Thy name is FED. A dark and hungy god arises. The Wealth Transfer Vehicles are being sacrificed upon the alter of reality. The FED can no longer hold the center. All is in disarray. Debt destruction slouches towards....wherever...... Is it any co-incidence all the WTV's and Ponzi's grew and flourished under the FEDs interest rate suppression policies. No co-incidence at all.

NOT A BEAR MARKET IN AUSTRALIA The Australian Stock Market only down 10% in 2022. Vesus US market down 21%. I expect this pattern to continue. We dont have all the overvalued tech crap in our index and companies never got so overvalued here. Plus we are resource stock heavy. NO BEAR MARKET IN NICOTINE Altria has only gone from $47 to $45 this year. What bear market??????????

THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTENCE Its always about the path of least resistence. (One of my favourite laws of economics and physics and human nature). What are the Central Banks path of least resistence. More printing and more inflation. They exist to bail out the borrowers and asset values. All that debt has to be made safe for democracy. Of course this is poison for the bondholders. Only now do the bondholders "Get It". But they should bave realised that a long time ago and sold up. Debt holders have been undercompensated for at least the past 5 years.

MUSINGS ET AL Bear markets are markets in reality. Bull markets are markets in belief. At least half the bull market since 2009 has been simply muiltiple expansion caused by the endless FED printing.

INTRODUCING A NEW BOND There is a new bond in town. 1/ It yields the CPI%. 2/ Its tax free. What a great investment!!!! Clearly superior to TIPS What is this great bond called. Its called......FOOD.

PRINTING AS THE FINE ART OF THEFT The FED printed trillions in 2020 and 2021. Did the value of all those printed dollars appear from thin air????? No it did not. It was stolen from the bond holders. They didnt realise this in 2020. They started to realize this in 2021. But only in 2022 do they fully realise this. If inflation is a tax on money. Then printing is a tax on bonds. Realised in the form of "Capital loss plus inflation" Im surprised bond funds still exist. Im surprised anyone other than the FED owns any bonds.

CRYPTO....ITS ALL ABOUT THE KULTINESS Crypto has no intrinsic value....no stream of free cash flows stretching into the distant future to pay dividends etc. But as it has a price it has a value....but only a "price value" and really only a sale price value ...as you need to sell to crystalise the value. Assets with intrinsic value have a price and a value which is independent of each other ...a "value value" so to speak. Crypto's price IS its value. And is purely psycologically determined. Therefore the investment in the great propaganda apparatus on the internet to influenence the price of cypto's. The bigger the "Kultisphere" surrounding a crypto the higher the price. This is very similar to the kult stocks, meme stocks, SPACS etc. Thus Crypto is a great speculation but a terrible investment. Really one for the traders using technical analysis. Or for those who can measure the "Kultiness" level of the crypto and whether it is increasing or decreasing. Price follows Kultiness!!!! This is usually measured/signalled by changes in trading volume, number of youtube promotors and youtube promoter hits, google searches, mentioned on bulletin boards, subreddit posts, being added to or being subtracted from crypto exchanges, facebook post mentions, tweets, total market cap and market cap growth, etc etc. In other words the whole great and varied apparatus of internet "Atttention" in all its myraid expressions is measured to determine a crypto's level of "Kultiness". I am sure there is a vast army of algos/traders/hedge funds that measure all this and use these stats to trade crypto's.

THOUGHTS ON CRAPTO Just a PONZI scheme that soaked up a large part of the excess liquidity from the big 40% M2 print. No big print now (well less of a print anyway....M2 still increasing) so no liquidity to push crapto higher. So it collapses under the weght of its lack of intrinsic value....ie..no real income and the transactional and mining costs. A wealth transfer vehicle just like SPACS. A wealth transfer scheme just like long bond funds were in 2019 and 2020 when they basked in the high returns of endless FED provided liquidity which turned real bond rates negative. Think of the big print as basically a welfare scheme for fraudsters. Money is getting smarter....slowly.....as this bear wears on. Note the staking schemes in Crypto are just PONZI engines designed to attract the dumb money and provide the liquidity so the insiders can cash out their large stakes. However if/when the FED goes full print again expect a partial resubstantiation of the craptoverse and the other WTV's.

THE LONG BOND So TLT has lost 10% YTD. And remember thats just the nominal loss ....in real terms you have to add inflation in......how about 18% real. By the time this is all over the loss will be 30-50% nominal. And even more in real terms.

OVERVALUED STOCK OF THE DAY Disney Market cap $200 billion Free cash flow $2 billion Its not pretty Not pretty at all.

AN OFFER JUST TOO BAD TO NOT REFUSE One of the joys of a truley disfunctional financial system created by massive central Bank interferrence is I keep on getting adds from a certain bank to deposit money. The rate offered.....drumroll please...... A wonderful 1.9% Inflation in Australia is currently 5.1% Now if the rate offered was say 8% I might consider it. The numbers just dont add up!!!!!!!!!!! What will happen when said bank actually has to pay real rates for its money........ For the shareholders.... It won't be pretty. Not pretty at all. Banks were great investments while the era of central bank cheap money lasted....but when its gone....the capital gains and dividends will be replaced by capital losses and no dividends.

ON THE OTEHR SIDE OF THE WAVE The 40% M2 print from March 2020 onwards was a varitable tsunami of money. It pushed stocks and bonds and houses way above reasonable values. Since the start of 2022 we have been "on the other side of the wave" Going down. The retailers are surfers on the wave. We have not reached the bottom yet. But there will be rallies!!!!!! Take Costco for instance Sells for 37 PE and 40 times free cash flow. Clearly worth about 100 B NOT the 200 B it is currently valued at. So many of the large cap stocks still have significant PONZI values in their stocks that need to be burned away.

THOUGHTS ON THE BEAR We realy have been in Bear mode since Archegos blew up in Feb 2021. Its working its way from the most frothy elements to the most basic. From Spacs to Walmart. Still has a while to run. The wealth transfer vehicles are being washed away by the tide of reality. Bonds are still for bagholders.