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Jimbo

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Jimbo last won the day on November 30

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Doctor of Stock Proctology

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  1. WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE THING IN CRYPTO?????? Its not the coin....thats obviously worthless. Answer: Its the exit liquidity!!!!!!!!!! Without that the insiders can't dump their worthless native token for real money. That's why they pay internet influences a small fortune to pump their coin. Thats why they run their exhchanges at an operating loss to attrack traders and their associated deposits. Thats why they burn the VC's capital to subsidize trading. Thats why they then use the deposits to pump and price support the native token while they cash out.
  2. THE CROWDING OUT EFFECT Issuing an avalanche of Government debt while the Central bank does'nt print is called the crowding out effect. Stocks get quite cheap during this process. Like in the 70's. It's heaven for value investors. A large number of overleveraged corporates will need to be saved by someone.
  3. TRAINING THE MARKET DOGS And so the F$ED is now pumping out the synthetic QE. All to train the market dogs.... Constant re-inforcement....the reward....the doggy treat of a quick market up. What quadrant are we in The real QT, synthetic QE quadrant ..... We have left the real QT synthetic QT quadrant behind... The best quadrant for short sellers. But stocks still overvalued and should be trading at 3000. SiPs great chart above suggests we will eventualy get there. The FED has become quite tricky Not only do you have to contend with sudden changes from QE to QT and from QT to QE You have to contend with sudden changes between synthetic QE and synthetic QT as well. The FED likes to really mix it up........ Both at the physical and psycological level. All in order to confuse, bamboozle and confound Mr Market. Notice how they rolled out the synthetic QT in the middle of 2021 which was followed by not much real QT in 2022. Now they are rolling out the synthetic QE at end 2022 to be followed by....... Probably not much QE in 2023.
  4. WHAT BEAR MARKET Altria is down only 4% this year. Add in the 8% dividend and you would actually be up owning this stock this year. What Bear Market???????
  5. AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE: 1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond. 2/Shorters/sellers of stocks. 3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks. 4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto. And so onto the next game........
  6. AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE: 1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond. 2/Shorters/sellers of stocks. 3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks. 4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto. And so onto the next game........
  7. AND THE WINNERS OF 2022 ARE: 1/ Shorters/sellers of the long bond. 2/Shorters/sellers of stocks. 3/ Buyers of energy/resource stocks. 4/ Shorters/sellers of crypto. And so onto the next game........
  8. BULL .....BEAR.......WHATEVER Neither a perma bull nor perma bear be... Just be right....which is difficult enough.... Re zero hedge...the comments section is deeply amusing for anyone who likes laughs. The comentors basically spend their enitre time insulting each other.
  9. SOME PONZI RATIOS Nike: Intrinsic value 70B Ponzi value 95B Price 166B Ratio ratio 95/165 or 0.57 57% of Nike is just hot air. Adidas Intrinsic value 40B Ponzi value - 16B Price 24B Ratio -16/24 or -0.66 Yes...a negative Ponzi ratio Adidas trading 66% below intrinsic value. Value investors should invest in stocks with negative ponzi ratios. ETF suggestion A negative ponzi ratio ETF Say stocks with ratios below -0.5 Note we can then determine the "Ponzi differential" between the two stocks as 0.57--0.66 Or 1.23 ...123%. i.e. if the two stocks eventually trade at their intrinsic values you should get a 123% outperformance by buying adidas instead of Nike. You could use this to create a Long/short ETF based on Ponzi differentials say over 1 or over 0.5
  10. THE PONZI CINEMATIC UNIVERSE Just as comic book heroes have expanded into a cinematic universe. The concept of the Ponzi scheme has expanded into a ponzi financial universe. If you look closely enough you can find a ponzi element in almost any asset. Assets can have an intrinsic element value and a ponzi value which combine to make up the asset price where the price exceeds the intrinsic value. In 2021 almost all bonds and stocks had a very large ponzi value....in many cases exceeding the intrinsic value of the asset. You can thank the FED for that. Excess liquidity drives the ponzi value. You can then derive a Ponzi ratio for an asset... The ponzi value of the asset divided by the intrinsic value of the asset.
  11. THE NATVIE TOKEN SCAM Looked at the FTX native token charts for FTT and SRM. An obvious price support operation was undertaken to prop up the tokens price from late May 2022 to early November 2022. (cant see this mentioned anywhere on the internet.......) Keeping the prices steady ...would cost a lot..... Who did this....best guess Alameda...... Where did they get the money to do this....best guess loans from FTX... Where did FTX get the money....best guess its the depositors money. So where did all the depositors money go....best guess ...eventually to the sellers of FTT and SRM during this period Will the liquidators persue them....good luck with that.... Unless the liquidator can use all the Madoff case law to establish a ponzi scheme was being operated and claw back money from the native token sellers as they were "net gainers" from the ponzi....the money is gone. Identifying the sellers will be difficult. The native token acts as the wealth transfer vehicle. Its what I call a "token ponzi"
  12. STRANGE FACTOID The tech stocks leaders in Australia still very overvalued on fundamental measures Wisetech, Xero, Computershare, Altium. Where is the Australian tech leader inverse ETF when you need it. Name of ETF for marketing purposes: The Bushranger ETF
  13. THOUGHTS ON THE LONG BOND The easy short money has already been made shorting the long bond. The risk/reward equation.....in my opinion......its just not worth it. This is not a high probability trade any more.
  14. NIKE FACTOID Price....$164 Billion Value....$70 Billion Price to value ratio 2.34 Overvaluation ratio 1.34
  15. The Trouble with Banks They have trillions in treasuries and MBS on their balance sheets. Holding them at hold to completion values....no mark to market for them. Think of the enormous losses they have not realised. They are going to have to pay way more on their deposits. But they are not going to get way more in interest on these bonds.
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