Jimbo

THE TRUMP BULL MARKET MIRAGE EXPOSED Exposed as merely multiple expansion using cheap FED QE money Just a mirage. No underlying growth in real corporate profits. ( i.e no growth in the actual reality prices of stocks) A cheap money mania which has now come to an end.

THE FED ENDS UP OWNING EVERYTHING Thats the end result All stocks and all bonds owned by the FED Now comes the ETF bail outs All those ETFs stuffed with over valued large cap stocks Most of the stock value over 50% composed of a PONZI valuie created by using all the Feds cheap QE funding to pump the stock up above their actual reality prices. So now the FED is trying to solve a crisis that it created. The irony of it all. Who will want to own a bond yielding 2% when inflation is 10% plus?????????????

I HAVE TO CONFESS I always wanted to buy Tabcorp stock (they own most of the lotteries in oz) But i considered it too expensive at $5. PE always above 20....not a bargain. Bought some today for $2.70 Half price Couldnt resist.

THE GREAT INFLATION TRADE The Fed has to go full inflation to save the Financial Industrial Complex. Otherwise its straight debt default. And they wont allow that. There is simply too much debt in the system to ever repay in real terms. Real assets yes financial assets no will be the mantra from now on. Very 1970's.

THE GREAT STOCK AND BOND CLEARANCE SALE I thoiught the Ponzi values in stocks would disapear in 2019. Was a year early. Uncle Warren will probbaly have a preference share bonanza. Of course all the bail outs from the Fed and the other central banks will fire up inflation and finally puncture the crazy bond bubble. Havnt owned any bonds for years thank goodness. A worse investment than shares right now. At least good shares in companies without too much debt will recover. The bonds wont recover. We will see whom is swimming naked.

THE AGE OF THE HIGH INTEREST RATE CD WILL COME AGAIN Everything goes in cycles. The epic bail outs that the central banks will indulge in will lead to inflation. Which will lead to high interest rates. (Please note its real interest rates that matter not nominal rates). It was the guys who bought 30 year Treasuries in 1982 at 15% and received real interest rate returns of over 10% for 30 years in a row that cleaned up.

UNCLE WARRENS CASH PILE VINDICATED Uncle Warren is going to pick up a lot of cheap stock shortly. Boeing is my guess. Its an Uncle Warren sort of company. Large mote...generates lots of free cash flow in a good year (if it builds good planes that can actually fly!!!!!!!!!!). Its now in his affordable range Probably through a preference share deal with lots of cheap warrants on the common, or conversion of the preference shares into common stock. Or even more Occidental????

THE FED's FRAGILISATION OF THE STOCK AND BOND MARKETS The Fed by endless QE cheap money antics has fragilised the bond and stock markets. Bonds and stocks would not be in these big bubbles and would not be so easy to be popped by what ever black swan came along. The Fed by throwing QE water on every small fire that came along allowed the build up of a massive fuel load of over valuation in the forest which is now burning like crazy. The REPO madness that started in September 2019 plus the virus were the final straws.

THE PONZI VALUES ARE DISAPPEARING This is where the market reality price of stocks is converging to the actual reality price of stocks. As the market reality price of stocks was far above the actual reality price of stocks.......... This is accomplished by a sudden reduction in the market reality price of stocks......... Till it matches the actual reality price of stocks. We are simply having an actual reality recognition event. The reality is USA needs to delever. Corporates and individuals both.

TWO BLACK SWANS IN A ROW First you has the REPO flood starting in Sept 19 pushing up stocks Then you now have the virus pushing them down.

WHY YOU JUST HAVE TO LOVE You just had to love the Occidentla Anadarko deal Why!!!!!!!!!!! Because it was so obviously going to destroy the share price of Occidental. See my posts on this. But now there is more upside in this stock than down side. Of course good old Uncle Warren hasnt taken a dividend cut. Now Chevron can launch a cheap take over offer and clean the management out.

CAPITAL DESTRUCTION OF A FAIRLY HIGH ORDER Major oil getting whacked. Exxon has lost half its market cap. Big oil need to stop chasing the shale oil dream. Throwing their capital away. Need massive cuts in capex. Or their dividends are history. Shale is massively over drilled. Most of the shale companies are going to go chapter 11. Where is the capital discipline when you need it???????? Look at Occidental ....has lost two thirds of market cap. Paid too much to get into shale. And sold its soul to Uncle Warren to do so!!!!!!!

VIRUS COLLATERAL DAMAGE I note that Constellation Brands the maker of Corona beer has taken a hit. Down from 208 to 172 (at the low).

THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 Is not like the last quarter of 2019. No magic REPO burst to float the market to nirvana A very different psycological frame i.e. "The psychosphere" at work in this quarter One much more negative for stocks.

APPLE REDUX Since my negative posts on Apple the stock seems to have gone only one way. DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!