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fxfox

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Posts posted by fxfox

  1. 15 minutes ago, SiP said:

    Thats interesting since Gold made one year ago new all time highs in euro. 

    Same in jpy, gbp etc

    take a look at xaujpy xauchf xaugbp etc. 

     

    The price of Gold is almost never shown in EUR. It was reported as a side note once it made that ATH in EUR.

    It‘s the same with Oil: you never see that quoted in EUR, although that would be vital for a Germany based investor.

    Also tricky with the miners: If they only go up slightly, but USD falls a lot, I could end up actually losing money with them.

  2. 23 minutes ago, SiP said:

    Potatohead 

    Dollar is falling because 

    1. Europe and many countries are better preparre for covid19. 

    2 US is in deep trouble with covid19. this means lower interest rate till 2025.

    3 Europe just made a historic turn - EU created mutual bonds (debt) on last summit. They agreed to debt mutualisation, at least for covid19 grants. This means A. euro is safe B. there is new debt instrument to buy (rich countries could now buy euro debt instead of dollar debt) 

    all in all, means euro is going higher. Many talks about 1.25 or even 1.35 for eurusd

     

    and.... china is now longer buying dollar debt. Trade wars. 

     

    This meams deep troubles for dollar. 

     

     

    That‘s a very good summary and I agree with it.

    When EUR/USD clears congestion area 1.20/1.25 it will go to 1.50/1.60. We are right now in a mental transition phase. Soon folks will realize that they have to have European stocks, you can‘t have a 80% or so exposure to US stocks when the Dollar tumbles like a dove. So folks will reduce USD denominated exposure and built up much more exposure to European and Emerging Market stuff.

    My scenerio is that there will be one last attempt to save the USD: When they come back from The Hamptons. But that will fail.

    • Like 1
  3. Wow! Absolute crazy price action overnight:

    Gold hit high at 1944, trading at 1932 right now

    Silver high was at 24.39 (sic!)

    Stock indeces also up, but not that much

     

    jjp6,

    you really think that 2000 will be the high for the year? I mean the ordinary retail crowd isn‘t even in that trade right now. Why shouldn‘t they switch from NDX to Gold  and therefore from Tesla, Nio, Nuo, Spotify and whatnot to CDE, Kirklake, Yamana and of course exotic junior miners?

    In my view the Gold bull will not end until retail wasn‘t sucked in. They always get sucked in. If you keep the perma Gold bulls aside, no one talks about Gold. Everyone talks about tech. Wait till they discover Gold miners... We will then get the same crazy moves which we saw in tech. If they can pump an electric truck company like Nikola up 10 fold or whatever within weeks they can do the same with some freaky South American or Africa unhedged Gold miners. See, they will even buy miners which have no mines at all...

  4. 25 minutes ago, SiP said:

    I have simple question - who would love to vaccinated if this vaccination happend in US within 6 moths, instead of 3-5 years?

    I think there will be huge problem, if this will not be a mandatory. Most will not take a shot in the arm. 

    I think it was either Jimi or Jorma who pointed out - very early during the  ovid crisis, think in early March - that the way the american society is structured makes it something like impossible to come thru the crisis like in Europe. US citizens are more freedom loving than those in Europe. In Germany and Poland people do more or less what they are told, although not to the same extend than it was a few decades ago. In the US tbe understanding of „freedom“ is much more grass roots. Freedom also means „freedom from the State“, which than leads us pretty wuickly to „survival of the fittest“. The european concept of tbe „caring state“ is for many tens of millions of americans simething like „weird“ so to say.

    So, yes, I would say at least 50 million americans - if not much more - will refuse to be vaccinated.

  5. 2 minutes ago, DrStool said:

    UE bennies are only subject to income tax, not payroll taxes. IOW, no social security/medicare tax. But at the rates they currently paid, they would withhold around 10-15% from most bennie checks. Considering that includes gig workers,  and that many states withhold, this is boosting the daily withholding tax collections. 

    Learning something new every day. 

    ... and that at that age! :lol:

    btw, this --> :lol: smiley is the best smiley ever. Unfortunately it didn't make it to IOS(MacOS or Android, can only use it when I am at the computer.

  6. 26 minutes ago, jp6 said:

    Another Crazy day in PM.

    Silver price Target is $23-$24 Then I am dumping it all

     

    silver-1.thumb.png.bbb2128fe503faf8049a37c4d217ef20.png

     

    You dump everything? I don't understand exactly why.

    I can see nothing bearish on this chart here:

    Higher lows, crossed thru resistance, broke pivot high from 2016, RSI up, MACD buy, ROC buy...

    I mean sure, on the short term Silver is overextended, but on longer term view uptrend looks healthy

     

     

    20200722_Silver_monthly.png

  7. 5 hours ago, SiP said:

    Yeap. It will mostly move in the same direction as euro but dxy is not only about euro

    It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to following select currencies:

     

    Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight

    Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight

    Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight

    Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight

    Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight

    Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

    Yep, that‘s right. But see, EUR/USD is almost 60% of the index. Since it isn‘t an equal weight index that means it is almost impossible that the Dollar index will behave completely different to the move in EUR/USD. The Dollar index is a synthetic product, whereas EUR/USD represents real miney flows. It is not the case that the Dollar index breaks an important level and because of that folks start buying/selling EUR/USD. It is the other way around.

    The Dollar index is just a gimmic. It is idiotic to construct an index where one single constituent is 58% of the undex. It‘s like if Newmont or Barrick would be 60% of the HUI. Why should you then analyze HUI? You would know that HUI would be behave exactly like Newmont or Barrick.

     

    • Like 1
  8. 11 hours ago, DrStool said:

    Ultimately, this will precipitate another crash. 

    What will the Fed do then, if the propensity of the banks is to use the central bank money to pay down its debts. We don't know because it have never happened before, but my guess is systemic collapse, everybody goes broke, and somehow we start over from scratch, with the likelihood of an intervening dark age.  

    You might add that „ultimately“ could mean „a long way off“ or „in decades“. There is quite a amount of stock market observers which don‘t understand the behaviour of the stock market since 1995 anymore. That‘s 25 years and roughly the complete investing circle of an individual. Not to be invested in stocks since 1995 means financial death.

    What happened in March was in my view a gigantic bailout of Blackrock and Vanguard. They have become so systemic via the 401k mechanism due to ETFs and such that we have surpassed the point since years where it could be allowed that they fail. Even if Blackrock and Vanguard would be the biggest debitors in the world they would never have to pay it back. If they had to, the world would collapse, cause the complete (upper—) middle class of western societies would lose all its retirement savings.

    The mistake was to let become Vanguard and Blackrock become so systemic. Now it is too late. Although I think it was not his intention, but John Bogle created a monster. We all have to live with the unintended consequences.

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