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fxfox

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Everything posted by fxfox

  1. The price of Gold is almost never shown in EUR. It was reported as a side note once it made that ATH in EUR. It‘s the same with Oil: you never see that quoted in EUR, although that would be vital for a Germany based investor. Also tricky with the miners: If they only go up slightly, but USD falls a lot, I could end up actually losing money with them.
  2. One of the possibimlities is a „natural hedge“. In your case that would mean gpimg back to the US.
  3. Gold is all over the place on German TV this evening... It is one of the main themes on every news show.
  4. That‘s a very good summary and I agree with it. When EUR/USD clears congestion area 1.20/1.25 it will go to 1.50/1.60. We are right now in a mental transition phase. Soon folks will realize that they have to have European stocks, you can‘t have a 80% or so exposure to US stocks when the Dollar tumbles like a dove. So folks will reduce USD denominated exposure and built up much more exposure to European and Emerging Market stuff. My scenerio is that there will be one last attempt to save the USD: When they come back from The Hamptons. But that will fail.
  5. Ha! There we have it, the roots of all the problems: You'd have better listened to Dr. Brightside, Dr. Milkanhoney and Dr. Lalaland!
  6. Wow! Absolute crazy price action overnight: Gold hit high at 1944, trading at 1932 right now Silver high was at 24.39 (sic!) Stock indeces also up, but not that much jjp6, you really think that 2000 will be the high for the year? I mean the ordinary retail crowd isn‘t even in that trade right now. Why shouldn‘t they switch from NDX to Gold and therefore from Tesla, Nio, Nuo, Spotify and whatnot to CDE, Kirklake, Yamana and of course exotic junior miners? In my view the Gold bull will not end until retail wasn‘t sucked in. They always get sucked in. If you
  7. I will be a buyer of TUI at 99 cents. The european tourism industry will get conpletely bombed. Then you pickem up for monster bargains. For 10 or 20 baggers within 5 years.
  8. I‘d add to Gold longs at the EMA200 hourly. That‘s at 1845 right now, but quite fast rising. The following move from a retest of the EMA200 should bring us then to the all time high. There we will see what happens. Once we get a monthly close above 2000 things could start to get really interesting...
  9. I think it was either Jimi or Jorma who pointed out - very early during the ovid crisis, think in early March - that the way the american society is structured makes it something like impossible to come thru the crisis like in Europe. US citizens are more freedom loving than those in Europe. In Germany and Poland people do more or less what they are told, although not to the same extend than it was a few decades ago. In the US tbe understanding of „freedom“ is much more grass roots. Freedom also means „freedom from the State“, which than leads us pretty wuickly to „survival of the fittest“. T
  10. ... and that at that age! btw, this --> smiley is the best smiley ever. Unfortunately it didn't make it to IOS(MacOS or Android, can only use it when I am at the computer.
  11. You dump everything? I don't understand exactly why. I can see nothing bearish on this chart here: Higher lows, crossed thru resistance, broke pivot high from 2016, RSI up, MACD buy, ROC buy... I mean sure, on the short term Silver is overextended, but on longer term view uptrend looks healthy
  12. you can add to that: monthly RSI at 58 12 Month ROC buy signal (per end of July) monthly MACD buy signal (since end of June)
  13. Yep, that‘s right. But see, EUR/USD is almost 60% of the index. Since it isn‘t an equal weight index that means it is almost impossible that the Dollar index will behave completely different to the move in EUR/USD. The Dollar index is a synthetic product, whereas EUR/USD represents real miney flows. It is not the case that the Dollar index breaks an important level and because of that folks start buying/selling EUR/USD. It is the other way around. The Dollar index is just a gimmic. It is idiotic to construct an index where one single constituent is 58% of the undex. It‘s like if Newmont o
  14. Yes, the multi year downtrend in EUR/USD is not broken yet. btw, I never look at Dollar Index. EUR/USD is the vast majority of the index, The USD index will never move in the complete opposite direction of EUR/USD.
  15. EUR/USD broke thru the March high. Monthly chart looks bullish. But keep in mind that there is massive multi year and often tested congestion area between 1.20 and 1.25. Once that is cleared it should fly to 1.50/1.60. When USD falls a lot US stocks become unattractive for overseas investors. Ex-US stocks will become more attractive, also for US-based investors.
  16. You might add that „ultimately“ could mean „a long way off“ or „in decades“. There is quite a amount of stock market observers which don‘t understand the behaviour of the stock market since 1995 anymore. That‘s 25 years and roughly the complete investing circle of an individual. Not to be invested in stocks since 1995 means financial death. What happened in March was in my view a gigantic bailout of Blackrock and Vanguard. They have become so systemic via the 401k mechanism due to ETFs and such that we have surpassed the point since years where it could be allowed that they fail. Even if
  17. In their early days they were probably called „The Stools“ 😂
  18. ES low was exactly at the EMA 200 hourly, NDX also at the 200 hourly
  19. Jam attempt brutally blocked and reversed. That‘s a sign.
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