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fxfox

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Posts posted by fxfox

  1. 2 hours ago, GregFokker said:

    Great observations. Never looked at it that way before. 

    Thanks.

    There are 2 example which come to my mind: 

    BASF did built a complete chemical plant in China. After a while their controllers wondered why the sales figures were not as they expected. They drove around. A few miles away from the plant they saw an EXACT COPY inch by inch rebuilt by the Chinese of the BASF plant. That was in the early 2000s. Same counts for a ThyssenKrupp steel plant, which was also built in the early 2000s and as also copied inch by inch. The chinese never paid for that. They just did steal intellectual property. I didn't make these stories up. Those stories and others than these are well documented.

     

     

     

  2. 36 minutes ago, DrStool said:

    I'm not all the way out. I'm coming back in June to sell my house. I also need to decide where to settle. Mayb Zagreb, maybe Nice, maybe Poland. I know only that I'll spend winters around the Mediterranean. I can assure you that I won't spend winter in Warsaw.  Most likely will be Nice.  

    Doc,

    if you have the opportunity to settle in Nice, I have to scratch my head that you even think about going to Zagreb or - holy crap! - WARSAW. If I remember correctly your wife is of Quebecois descent, so she‘s french native speaker. A further plus point for Nice.

    Go to Nice Doc! It is like paradise.

    btw, in German Nice is called: Nizza 😄 

  3. 1 hour ago, DrStool said:

    I think more than one. Anybody who was short Treasury futures. They're wiped out, and they've taken their lenders with them. That's my guess.  

    The Fed will cut the FFR to zero and announce a big increase in Not QE.  But I won't stick my neck out and say for sure that the market will respond positively. The leverage in the system is, I think, too great to get our minds around, and this time, it may even be too much for the Fed to manage. We'll have to let the market render its verdict as judge and jury. 

    Yes, definitely more than one.Weird thing is: Under normal cirucmstances a really big Hedge Fund (I'm not talking about those bucket shops, pink sheet swindlers and whatnot) has a proper risk management, which also includes stress scenarios (earthquakes, vulcano erruptions etc.). Part of that should also an pandemia, because we had 2 of them in last 20 years, so a pandemia is NOT a black swan. I really would like to know WHO went bust and with which strategy. 

    I share your view regarding leverage. You can add to that doing business with China is a "leverage in itself" so to say. You have only minor legal cerainty and so on. This is no big problem as long as your profits are doing fine, but as soon as there is a disruption folks say: "ah phick off Chiner! Betry someone else, but not me anymore, goddam bastards!" There are many many business people around the globe how are completely fed up with the Chinese since many many years. If there is one how is leveraged up to the wazoo than it is: China. As a whole. The trade deal was not really in favour of China. Slo they have to deleverage somewhere. So now it is pay time it seems.  

  4. My fear is:

    this is only due to a major hedge fund blew up and that led to major imbalances in the market. Some kind of LTCM thing. The implications of the blew up of the later one were after all quite minor.
    What happened in the last 2 weeks? Market started to price-in a rollback of globalization. That’s wishful thinking. The rust belt will be the rust belt even in 100 years, the jobs from the 1950s will never come back. Of course China business is quite dead right now, but will that also he the case in 2021?

     

  5. My goodness this is really big! :ohmy:

    EUR/USD exploding to the upside, above 1.13 now

    Gold rocketing

    Oil tumbling like a wingless turd

    DAX new low for the year, ES broken thru critical levels...

    When they start selling the FANG's (maybe today?) the circuit breakers will go on.

     

    "At the start of each day, the NYSE sets three circuit breaker levels at levels of 7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2) and 20% (Level 3). These thresholds are the percentage drops in value that the S&P 500 Index would have to suffer in order for a trading halt to occur. Base price levels for which these thresholds will be applied are calculated daily based on the preceding trading day’s closing value of the S&P 500. Depending on the point drop that happens and the time of day when it happens, different actions occur automatically: Level 1 and Level 2 declines result in a 15-minute trading halt unless they occur after 3:25pm, when no trading halts apply. A Level 3 decline results in trading being suspended for the remainder of the day".

     

    • Like 1
  6. Very nice bearflag in hourly ES. The fifth test now. The more often support gets tested...

     

    If that sup breaks the shit really hits the fan.

    There are so many stocks in Germany which are already broken, BASF, Daimler, BMW and so on... beneath the mattress the fire is burning since months and months... Look at the Trannies, topped out in 18 and whatnot.

    The only thing which holds all that crap up are the FANG's. They are the nifty-fifty's of our time. What happened to the later ones is history.

  7. It‘s over before it even began.

    Today they gonna close above the FED spike high and that will end the embryo bear.

    The initial reaction right after the FED announcement was up. Doc said for the last 15 years+ that the initial reaction is the correct one.

    “They“ wanna train the public to just make a fix contribution Every month into an MSCI World ETF or so. They say:; Do NOT trade, or we will kill you in those momentum ahocks we engineer from time to time. Just buy on a regular basis. That‘s all.

     

  8. Sir Prize: They didn‘t have the guts to close it above the FED spike high.

    But hey,  no problem, they just gonna do it overnight, or tomorrow during fegular hours, acger they gave bears a bit hope.

    same price action as during all those downmoves during last 10 years: What begins as a minor short covering move ends up in a melt up followed by another multiple month grinding higher move.  

  9. 23 minutes ago, DrStool said:

    Dude, they had no choice. The market already moved. They had to follow. I wrote  it up on Saturday and said that they would have to move by Tuesday, and even said possibly by a half point. I thought it would have to be a half but did not want to go that far out on a limb. 

    This is not rocket science. The Fed must ratify market moves or appear to be powerless.  This move was no surprise to anyone paying attention. 

    Of course they had to follow. That‘s what they always do: Follow the market. Question is: Why did market rates fall so hard, if not to say „crash“ last week?

    Seems like a global recession of epic proportions is going to be priced in. When I look around I hear many business people which say that doing business with Asia is basically dead right now: No flights,  no travel, everything gets cancelled or postponed. A supply chain which took 20 years to built up can‘t be re-organised elsewhere within a few months. There are huge disruptions yet to come. 

  10. After just ONE week the bear is already dead. Price action today is even worse than I could imagine. Thought they would only make it to 3070. Shortest bear market in recorded history. PMI Figures from China absolutely catastrophic, but China Index up like a madman. That was the clue.

    One can't fight the CB's.

    In our lifetimes we will not see a 2000-2003 or 2008/09 bear market again. 

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