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Everything posted by fxfox

  1. Thanks. There are 2 example which come to my mind: BASF did built a complete chemical plant in China. After a while their controllers wondered why the sales figures were not as they expected. They drove around. A few miles away from the plant they saw an EXACT COPY inch by inch rebuilt by the Chinese of the BASF plant. That was in the early 2000s. Same counts for a ThyssenKrupp steel plant, which was also built in the early 2000s and as also copied inch by inch. The chinese never paid for that. They just did steal intellectual property. I didn't make these stories up. Those stories
  2. Doc, if you have the opportunity to settle in Nice, I have to scratch my head that you even think about going to Zagreb or - holy crap! - WARSAW. If I remember correctly your wife is of Quebecois descent, so she‘s french native speaker. A further plus point for Nice. Go to Nice Doc! It is like paradise. btw, in German Nice is called: Nizza 😄
  3. Yes, definitely more than one.Weird thing is: Under normal cirucmstances a really big Hedge Fund (I'm not talking about those bucket shops, pink sheet swindlers and whatnot) has a proper risk management, which also includes stress scenarios (earthquakes, vulcano erruptions etc.). Part of that should also an pandemia, because we had 2 of them in last 20 years, so a pandemia is NOT a black swan. I really would like to know WHO went bust and with which strategy. I share your view regarding leverage. You can add to that doing business with China is a "leverage in itself" so to say. You have
  4. My fear is: this is only due to a major hedge fund blew up and that led to major imbalances in the market. Some kind of LTCM thing. The implications of the blew up of the later one were after all quite minor. What happened in the last 2 weeks? Market started to price-in a rollback of globalization. That’s wishful thinking. The rust belt will be the rust belt even in 100 years, the jobs from the 1950s will never come back. Of course China business is quite dead right now, but will that also he the case in 2021?
  5. My goodness this is really big! EUR/USD exploding to the upside, above 1.13 now Gold rocketing Oil tumbling like a wingless turd DAX new low for the year, ES broken thru critical levels... When they start selling the FANG's (maybe today?) the circuit breakers will go on. "At the start of each day, the NYSE sets three circuit breaker levels at levels of 7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2) and 20% (Level 3). These thresholds are the percentage drops in value that the S&P 500 Index would have to suffer in order for a trading halt to occur. Base price levels for w
  6. They lifted it up so that Europe didn't close toooo red. Now they gonna loose it it seems. A close under 3000 today and shocking NFP's tomorrow and the shit hits REALLY the fan.
  7. They have to hold it here otherwise Europe will do a Flushing Meadows move and close in a sea of red.
  8. Oh gawd memories come to mind! Since Greg Fokker and some other old schoolers are here today. Where is this foto from Ruckeyser where it says: "Apres moi, la deluge!" That was an all time stoolie classic!
  9. Very nice bearflag in hourly ES. The fifth test now. The more often support gets tested... If that sup breaks the shit really hits the fan. There are so many stocks in Germany which are already broken, BASF, Daimler, BMW and so on... beneath the mattress the fire is burning since months and months... Look at the Trannies, topped out in 18 and whatnot. The only thing which holds all that crap up are the FANG's. They are the nifty-fifty's of our time. What happened to the later ones is history.
  10. It‘s over before it even began. Today they gonna close above the FED spike high and that will end the embryo bear. The initial reaction right after the FED announcement was up. Doc said for the last 15 years+ that the initial reaction is the correct one. “They“ wanna train the public to just make a fix contribution Every month into an MSCI World ETF or so. They say:; Do NOT trade, or we will kill you in those momentum ahocks we engineer from time to time. Just buy on a regular basis. That‘s all.
  11. Sir Prize: They didn‘t have the guts to close it above the FED spike high. But hey, no problem, they just gonna do it overnight, or tomorrow during fegular hours, acger they gave bears a bit hope. same price action as during all those downmoves during last 10 years: What begins as a minor short covering move ends up in a melt up followed by another multiple month grinding higher move.
  12. So the „real“ fake move was the downmove after the FED announcement??? Sometimes one can‘t simply stand this crap anymore.
  13. Of course they had to follow. That‘s what they always do: Follow the market. Question is: Why did market rates fall so hard, if not to say „crash“ last week? Seems like a global recession of epic proportions is going to be priced in. When I look around I hear many business people which say that doing business with Asia is basically dead right now: No flights, no travel, everything gets cancelled or postponed. A supply chain which took 20 years to built up can‘t be re-organised elsewhere within a few months. There are huge disruptions yet to come.
  14. This was either the dumbest move ever by the FED or they know more. When you are at 1.75 you can‘t cut by 0.5 or you risk major panic. That‘s what happens right now. My guess is that they know that the situation in China is much worse than we even think in our weirdest nightmares. A complete breakdown of the global supply chain for example.
  15. After just ONE week the bear is already dead. Price action today is even worse than I could imagine. Thought they would only make it to 3070. Shortest bear market in recorded history. PMI Figures from China absolutely catastrophic, but China Index up like a madman. That was the clue. One can't fight the CB's. In our lifetimes we will not see a 2000-2003 or 2008/09 bear market again.
  16. has not set their status

  17. thats good news for us, because with that an whopsaw is likely and that is what we need. We need a whopsaw to suck the last idiots in and then we can go down.
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