Velly interesting what you write Herr Doktor!
Quintessence of it all:
TA rules. Above all. Liquidity analysis is good, but mainly for context, to give you a warm and fuzzy feeling at times for your positions, but you TAKE positions based on TA. We could go down into an almost academical discussion of broad liquidity analysis helps for trading imdividual stocks. Thing is: There is never absolutely NO liquidity, someone has always something, whether it‘s Goldman, some Saudis, some randon Asian tycoon… and some day they simply decide to buy Meta, Nvidia or whatever and ignite a move and others hop aboard. Sure, plenty of liqui helps, but even if there is - say - „not so much“ liqui there are always „names“ which rise.
The „comfort zone“ aka „QE“ is gone, now and for the foreseable future the new regime needs a good TA eye, good position management and: Luck.
The march low was a retest of the broken downtrendline. Since then the market is ultra bullish.
From a psychological point of view it is very complicated to mix pure technical trading and liqui stuff. Example: You have a clear buy signal, but you „know“ that the market must come down the next 2 weeks because there is a shitload of T Bill issuance. What do you do? Ignore the signal? Or ignore the info thet you have about liqui? Now we can say: You wait 2 weeks after things calmed down and then you go long. But what if market absorbed liqui probs better than anticipated? What do you do? Hop on the train which left the station? Sure??? No. You will do nothing.
Now the whole internet „knows with 100% certainty“ that from Sep 1 on student loans start to hsve to be paid back again and that will weigh on individual liqui and so folks can buy less stocks and therefore msrket will sink. Yes, that‘s how it will work, right. Right? Right???
Sure. Since a good part of the adressees are housewifes or at least have their mindset a good part of the adressers - tourist guides - are housewifes too.
😂😂😂
I think the Semperoper was rebuilt during the GDR era, but most of the other stuff after 1989.
Very interesting to hear the tourist bus story. Normally the Nazi era is mentioned everywhere. History in school was 50% Nazi era and Im speaking about history from the old Greeks on…, but I went to school in West Germany, not in the East: They learned that Stalin was not so good, but Lenin was „quite ok“. Fact is: Lenin choosed Stalin.
Best thing in school was when in 1990 an US Army General came to my class and made propaganda for the Gulf War 😂 Was 4-6 weeks or so before the war started.
The thing with trading is: You have to BELIEVE the things you SEE.
I saw Meta bombing higher, same with Netflix, I saw Mafiasoft making bullish whicks again and again AND every time testing the EMA 50 monthly… but I did not BELIEVE it, so I did not go long…
I have to buy a cold hearted monkey who trades like a robot for me.
Regarding sentiment right now:
In my view it is NOT the case that everyone is foaming at the mouth bullish. The usual suspects are, but do they count? Cut the perma bulls and perma bears off and look then what you see. I see cautiousness, no trust in a bull, „maybe we go to 4500, but that will be it“, „breath is laughable“…
Well, that is exactly the desciption of the Wall of Worry.
btw, when we come off a bottom the market breath is always bad.
That post is a Hall of Famer. You should really collect posts like that and put it into an extra section of the board, like „Doc‘s stock market wisdoms“, „Dr Stool on markets“ or somerhing like that.
Thanks a lot Doc for clarification. Much appreciated. All in all what you say here does not sound overwhelmingly besrish…
it is worth notimg that the FED can just with a tiny alternation of its policy change much: They can for example tell the banks „from now on, we accept everything as collateral, even your stinky sneakers from the 80s“, et voila, liqui problems solved. One really has to look carefully at the details.
Regarding impact of China: I think it is ok monitoring it, but I guess you are right that the impact is almost neglectable right now. But one should monitor political situation. If there would be a treaty in the future which would allow capital to move more freely, impact could change.
I think folks get the impact of China wrong cause they think GDP is the same as market cap. To me GDP weighted indeces make not much sense. All that counts is where the money flows to and that is reflected by market cap. Take the MSCI All Country World or the FTSE All World indeces: Both are market cap weighted and in both the combined msrket cap of the US, Europe and Japan are roughly 75%, whereas China is roughly 3%. The percentage of China in globsl GDP is much higher, but the money does mot flow to the Chinese stock market, it flows to China, but not into Chinese stocks, only to a tiny extend. In fact everyone invests in China via vehicles aka US and European Mega Caps.
There are grocery stores, maybe not in Dresden. But grocery went to a large part to Aldi, Lidl, REWE and such, so basically you buy grocery often at the supermarket.
In Heidelberg we have a synagogue too and we even have Jews 😂 We even have a Jewish University („Hochschule für jüdische Studien“)
http://www.hfjs.eu/index.en.html
