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Everything posted by fxfox

  1. Thanks TCG. Everyone on the planet now watches 3250. That level is the one where we were right before the vaccine news came out. Over the course of time the level which is said to be „the buying opportunity of a lifetime“ by financial porn media gets lower and lower. In spring 22 it was 4200, then 3900, then 3600, now it is 3250. Next one will be 3000. Below that we enter the free fall zone. At that time I expect real mass capitulation to start, means folks will REALLY start hating stocks, ALL stocks and will start to cancel their monthly ETF savings plans, which they haven‘t done yet. An interesting footnote: Folks in Non-USD countries don‘t see the total mess in their stock indeces yet cause they are calculated and published in their local currency. Example DAX: One wonders why it didn‘t fall much further yet, given the energy crisis and so on in Germany. Now go and watch the DaX in USD… it even gets better with the Nikkei: Thst one in Yen almost looks like a bull flag on the monthly and now go and watch in USD… Now imagine what happens to Nikkei and DAX if the horror upmove in USD would start to reverse even only a little bit. That‘s why I have no doubt that we will see the 8k handle again in DAX within the next 12 months.
  2. I always watch the monthly first. There you can really see things, even on the daily sometimes you forget where you really are. Regarding those 5 tech stocks: When we say that Tesla is tech than that is by a landslide the absolute numero uno.
  3. Amazing dot bomb will fall to its monthly EMA 200 at 63, then go up to 100, built a giant H&S (good to see on the monthly) and then begins its death march to the single digits, meanders there FOR YEARS and then dies. 😂
  4. The SOX will get absolutely destroyed. As predicted a few months ago „we will see overcapacity in Semis wirhin tve next 6 to 12 months“, but I thought it would take a little bit longer, till q1 23 or so. That we already see it now is a catastrophe. I think one could even short it now and would get rewarded. That thing will go to 1200.
  5. Lets say the top was not 4818, but 4850: So from 4850 to 3250 that‘s 1600, so another 1600 would bring us to 1650, which would be almost exactly the 2000 and 2007 top. So you think we test the 2000 and 2007 tops from above? Or do you mean that that other half of the decline starts from a higher level, lets say 3850, then we go 1600 down, to make THE low at 2250?
  6. That would more or less rule out that we can see the Covid lows in SPX again. Maybe 3000, but not much lower and not for long. Like Jimbo said: The FED doesn‘t want big corps go down the crapper. They targeted the SPACs, NFT, Meme stocks and stuff like that. Those bubbles already bursted. What is left? Maybe Crapto.
  7. That‘s frightening. So they play moral hazard again and get bailed out AGAIN.
  8. Reninds me of back then stoolie Mark chain posting pics of houses in a dying housing market in 2008/09
  9. The „alternative“ is a concerted global CB‘s intervention
  10. I didn‘t know that they are forced to buy. That explains a lot. Thank you.
  11. In 1992 the Brits thought the Bundesbank would help them, but it didn‘t, which was good. Nowadays the Club Med took over the ECB and so the ECB will hrlp the Brits, which is bad. Two things must happen: 1. Germany must get rid of the Green Maoists 2. The Club Med must get kicked out of top level jobs in the ECB and replaced by Germans, Austrians or Dutchmen.
  12. New mantra in Corporate Finance: “If you‘ve debt, you‘re dead“.
  13. No doubt the BoE is far far less important and influentual than the FED. The attack by Soros on the GBP in 1992 is a good exsmple: There were almost no global implications, it was more or less an isolated Britain thing. Regarding the 1 hour Gilt chart: See, if they really would have this under full control they would have made an gap up this morning to paint an island bottom, THAT would have been a powerfull sign.
  14. Earnings season begins in 2 weeks. Where are the warnings? Given the current environment it would be quite surprising if we wouldn‘t see some shockers.
  15. Wonder how long it takes till those „low volatility“ traders start complaining and ask for a bailout.
  16. That GILT and GBP stuff is more or less an isolated British Problem. Britain is done. Since decades. The Brexit was the final nail in the coffin.
  17. Moral hazard never dies. But isn‘t it moral hazard too when 93% of those cute Portugese finance their new houses via ARM‘s although they knew exactly how catastrophic the consequences can be? They play with fire and know that the state, the ECB or the Germans will bail them out.
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