fxfox

Very smart! 😎

Having knowledge about liqui impact and actually making money with that are two pair of shoes. What we do here at the Stool is nothing else but market timing. Trying to time the market is VERY complicated and there are many out there who even say that it is impossible. I dont share that view entirely, cause even with an ass simple 50/200 MA crossover system you can beat the S&P 500 easily over the long haul, long only approach and when signal gets short you go in short term bonds, your maxDD will also be much better. To say that market timing never works is of course the sayi g of the mutual fund industry and people like Bogle are of course key figures and he was during his lifetime THE key advocate for buy and hold. On the other hand market timers have to admit that there are times, sometimes years or even a whole decade, where they underperform b&h lousily. We are living in such times now. There are many many systems which have performance problems since 2009. I followed all your public stuff at Sure Money since you first said in Oct 2017 that one should get defensive. That was at roughly 2600. Now we are 10% higher. One can say thats not much. Ok. Fact is: Market made a new all time high after that. Then there came the NovDec 18 swoon dive and you were correct but than came the ass shaver move and your butt also got shaved. Right now it was not correct to go gradually cmpletely out of stocks beginning in Oct 17. it maybe would have been ok not to buy new stocks, but that was not your recomendation. The reco was to go out of stocks. Regarding German banks: Biggest prob of Deutsche was that they wanted to become global player and be successfull at Wall Street. See it is a German bank. A German bank will never rule Wall Street. The Street is ruled by Goldman. American banks rule there not German ones. But hey, at least we can built cars 😁✌🏻

I love and admire your passion regarding market analysis Doc, but I think - although I know you are kidding - that this would be a smart move.

„Punish Gold“-move now. For whatever. Given the circumstances an absolutly idiotic move to sell Gold before we go into weekend. Yet another sign that the overall market is under full control of a force no one can get a grip on. Sooner or later the market gets EVERYONE. See, the LTCM guys were no idiots. Who are we to believe that we found the holy grail with some rule of thumb liqui analysis? My bank is one of the biggest bond issuers in the world. We have hundreds of people in risk controlling alone. Those guys are fully aware of liqui stuff and its impact on the markets, CB policy and such. We here at the Stool have absolutely NO EDGE in anything we do.

Given the news, which are badass bad bad, market is much too stable. They have it under control. Next Saturn V move comming once consilidation is over.

Lets face it: In ordinary times that attack today at the oil tankers would have been good for a 1,000 point drop in the Dow. This market is unstoppable. And if the debt ceiling is a problem it simply will be lifted. World wide ZIRP is a HUGE HUGE force.

Felt like consolidation yest and probably was: Monster upmove in Futures this morning.

Great post. Those Germans I know who lived and worked a few years in the US almost all say the same: They were surpised if not shocked how religious the US is, those who were in the middle west or so even speak about arch religiousness. What always shocked myself is the flag and the hymn. I mean you see the american flag everywhere and they sing the hymn at every goddam high school basketball game. I only know of one country where that was the same: Nazi Germany.

I think that the FED itself decided internly that they cant go on wirh nirmalization as they thaught as long Trump is Pres. His actions are simply too uncalculatable. Lets face it: The newsflow we got in the last 12 months alone from Trump would have been in other times enough to bring the S&P to 1500. Iran ,North Corea, China, tariffs, german car makers, hate speech... In normal times the whole world would have lost faith in the US stock market. The flood gatish supply with liqui is the only reason this market hasnt cracked down. Look abroad: The rest of the world already looks like as if they have formed major tops and are ready to rollover. The US is the last man standing it seems.

Yes thats right. The system is called „paritätische Mitbestimmung“. In the US the Unions were badically killed by Hoover when he used the Italo Mafiosi. Then the final graveyard kick was done by Reagan. After that the monster upmove in stocks in the 80s began. The german corporates cant join the right because the main stream of the society is green/center left since some years. In the 30s Thyssen, Krupp et al were big sponsors of the Nazis. Right now corporate anerica is a big sponsors of Trump. Even Apple.

or Goebbels. ... and Leni Riefenstahl would mske a fascinating movie about the brightness and beautifullness of The Street. Trump is Hitler and Kudlow is Goebbels.

The Street loves Trump. S&P almost up 50% since his election. German DAX in the same time only a bit more than 10%. Trump will always protect american companies. Isnt it weired, that right in the moment the Monsanto/Bayer deal was inked the shit hit the and trial after trial started within the insane and absured american law system where companies have to pay 300 nillion or whatnot to a single person? Bayer is effed. The whole world knows that the anti trust authorities should have acted many years ago against Google, Amazon, Mafiasoft et al. Nothing happened and as long as Trump is president nothing will happen. Silicon Valley is a myth. It is one big lie. The whole thing only works because the dont pay taxes and have the idiotic american law system behind them which gives them a lead in international competition. Bezos is not a genius. Hundreds of business people in Germany could hsve done the same. Their problem: They dont have the force behind them. Given all that it makes perfect sense to buy american stocks and ONLY american stocks. All others can be thrown in the garbage can.

Doc, I wonder - again - why your sophisticated stuff didnt see this horror upthrust comming? Like at christmas. All of a sudden out of thin air the most violent imaginable Saturn V monster move began. Your liqui stuff didnt predict this. Why not? And cause it didnt why still following it? The opportunity costs following that liqui stuff get higher and higher...

In 1974 I guess most of the oldtimers at the Street were convinced that we go down as much as in the 30s in percentage terms. We didnt. Right now all bears and all those who were around in 2003 and 2009 are trained to believe that any downmove isnt over until it reaches minus 50%. Thats why that wont happen. We in our lifetime will never ever see maxDD of 50% again.

NDX up roughly 30% since Dec low. A 30% move within 3 months??? In the past we have seen something like that only at major lows, right? inverted yield curve right now. Interesting. Wonder if the CB‘s will bomb that recession pre-indicator away, like they did with so many things which worked in the past...