Having knowledge about liqui impact and actually making money with that are two pair of shoes. What we do here at the Stool is nothing else but market timing. Trying to time the market is VERY complicated and there are many out there who even say that it is impossible. I dont share that view entirely, cause even with an ass simple 50/200 MA crossover system you can beat the S&P 500 easily over the long haul, long only approach and when signal gets short you go in short term bonds, your maxDD will also be much better. To say that market timing never works is of course the sayi g of the mutual fund industry and people like Bogle are of course key figures and he was during his lifetime THE key advocate for buy and hold.
On the other hand market timers have to admit that there are times, sometimes years or even a whole decade, where they underperform b&h lousily. We are living in such times now. There are many many systems which have performance problems since 2009.
I followed all your public stuff at Sure Money since you first said in Oct 2017 that one should get defensive. That was at roughly 2600. Now we are 10% higher. One can say thats not much. Ok. Fact is: Market made a new all time high after that. Then there came the NovDec 18 swoon dive and you were correct but than came the ass shaver move and your butt also got shaved. Right now it was not correct to go gradually cmpletely out of stocks beginning in Oct 17. it maybe would have been ok not to buy new stocks, but that was not your recomendation. The reco was to go out of stocks.
Regarding German banks: Biggest prob of Deutsche was that they wanted to become global player and be successfull at Wall Street. See it is a German bank. A German bank will never rule Wall Street. The Street is ruled by Goldman. American banks rule there not German ones.
But hey, at least we can built cars 😁✌🏻