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Everything posted by Jorma

  1. Just saw something on the wire that Powell said that the vaccine roll out and the fiscal support are working which will bring the Fed closer to reducing it's bond purchases. (I paraphrase because no cut and paste) I say, WTF. I mean really, WTF.
  2. I always had bad hair. Back in the day around 71 some Oklahoma football team had a player with the nick Bad Hair.
  3. Some sort of perturbance in the flux at 9AM sharp. on my feed, had a spike to 1.73
  4. Again I have to pound on the absurd situation whereby everyone wants the Fed to print to cover deficits in the trillions and the Fed wants to, however they can't bring themselves to say it. I guess they are simply going to have to do it without saying it. Some afternoon announce they are buying a few trillion as soon as possible. That's the best course because as I said, nobody cares it's just show me the money Jerry. In 2016 it was widely accepted that the age of Reason, The Enlightenment, was over. Sure enough, the tales of magical thinking now boggle the mind. Face it however was the Age of Reason really so great? 500 years of continuous war in Europe till the last 70 and colonialism. People forget that double entry bookkeeping was a part of the age or Reason. A very big part. Well that's over too. Capital is now unlimited. The system always worked on the underlying assumption that capital was finite. Not so it seems. Do the powers that be have the need to describe what the new system is. I guess not.
  5. Bernanke or Greenspan for that matter are not uniquely nefarious so much as the monetary system is a racket. It's run by the banks and surprise surprise, the banks win, Who'd of thunk it. As for your reach Lee the possible answer is simple. You have to stop selling it. Don't stomp your feet at me.
  6. Gap up opening in TNX to a new swing high on Fed day. That's kind of cruel isn't it?
  7. I used to imagine Bernanke going home at night in late 07 and curling up into a fetal position. Instead it seems he had total confidence and he even went on TV and said so. Confidence today is double or triple that. Right?
  8. So it's Fed day tomorrow. It is an odd thing that the entire world knows they are going to go big into the long end. Not only that everyone wants it. The funny thing is they can't bring themselves to say it. It weird.
  9. I can't wait until we get the 1000 SPX point up days. The wealth creation will be stupendous.
  10. Get a bicycle Lee and ride all over the city and visit doctors till you find one who will give you the OK. Get one anyway. Get an ebike. $1500 American on Amazon, or less.
  11. Once the Fed starts buying in huge amounts then they can cap rates. It is this tricky period until they do that is the problem. I'm thinking there is a sort of gentlemen's agreement not to pressure leveraged Treasury coupon holders because soon enough it will be the Fed to the rescue. With some winks and nods that losses will be covered, somehow if needs be. The lesson of 87 and beyond is that banks never have to go bankrupt. Some are allowed to perhaps but none have to.. Help those in trouble until the trouble subsides is plan A. China has built dozens of giant cities, rail and road networks, huge factory infrastructure, and on and on, without the national government incurring any debt. Local governments do it via bank lending. Here we have to go through contortions trying to get the money into the people economy. Do Chinese banks admit losses? There have been a few banks and bond funds go under now and then but I can't figure out how mostly empty cities built with credit are working out for the banks, Well it's the new age, Nobody has to go bankrupt. If you get your shot I assume they will give some kind of certificate. I got one here. I would think that will be part of being allowed to travel internationally in the coming months.
  12. Some serious slot rattling going on. I suppose one has to take into account that the Fed could drop the Yield Curve Control card at any moment. A Friday afternoon? Not likely.
  13. There is nothing to remember. They just buy outstanding Treasury coupon issues. A few trillion should do it. Here is the thing. Nobody is against it. They aren't even against it. There is just the problem that since the BOE the first central bank came into existence the very first rule for central banks was you don't take a dominant position in your governments debt. Well that rule is out the window but they are loath to say that's what they are doing. They can't bring themselves to say it. It's a funny situation if you think about it. I sympathize with the inflationists, which is everyone, but the problem with more money fixing everything is corruption. Like all things human.
  14. Steve LIesman, Fed Whisperer, says Powell is not going to act on the long end. We will see. http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/video/ Liesman is quite the name for PR man posing as a journalist. Well he actually thinks he's a journalist. So Trump wasn't sworn in as President today? Speaking of funny names how is your old pal Dick Arms doing Lee?
  15. I see on the wire that the market fell when Powell "offered nothing but platitudes about rising rates". Since when do they dump on the Fed chair? Pretty serious stuff.
  16. Rut row. TNX = 1.5%. The Treasury should just cut out the middle men and by Treasuries direct on days like this. Or something. I suppose a retest of the spike top 1.61 last Thursday makes some sense. Nothing but zeros in Fed Repoland. https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000
  17. "the BOJ purchased almost twice the net issuance of Japanese government bonds in 2017 and now owns 43 percent of the outstanding bonds. By purchasing large fractions of both the flow and stock of the bonds, the BOJ has effectively controlled long yields." As of 7/2019 https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2019/07/15/the-asset-holdings-of-the-bank-of-japan#:~:text=To control yields in this,has effectively controlled long yields. Not a news flash. It's always just been a matter of time until all central banks are singing.
  18. The biggest hospital in my W MI county had zero Covid cases the other day. I got my second vaccination last week. The Canadian border still closed until the 21st and probably till who knows when, June?. Other areas much worse and worsening. Urp seems not so well off Covid wise. How Lee is going to get out of ̶ ̷D̷o̷d̷g̷e̷ Zadar I've got no clue. Not that he should share. Not as a matter of fact. Good luck there. The merger of the Treasury and the Fed is something to behold. (I know I know, they have always been partners) It is MMT except without all the absurd nonsense about governments issuing currency. A concept so harebrained that it's beyond belief. Perhaps they were right about fluoride back in the day.
  19. This snippet from the 2/27 Liquidty Trader "But oddly, dealer cash accounts rose by more, and Treasury cash fell by more, than what we can account for with these paydowns, and the other things we know about, like MBS settlements. It appears that there was a direct shift of funds from the Treasury to the dealers that was outside these channels." vs my musings and your response 2/19 There is no way they will allow this thing to deflate. If the PD's or bigger players are in trouble then I think we are at the point where the Fed and all the institutions will cheat. Go off balance sheet. How? I've got no clue. http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?/topic/15119-dubbya-21921/&do=findComment&comment=951216
  20. Just wait until the Fed announces its not QE, active management of the yield curve. There is zero popular or political opposition to this by the way. Everyone wants more money. However it seems to me that then nobody in their right mind would then buy Treasury coupons as the real interest rate will likely to go hugely negative. Well one problem at a time. As I've said for years, at every possible moment the answer is always more ease, more money, so the system can survive another day. On a little longer time frame the likelihood that there won't be a United States or US Treasury would seem to discourage investment in its debt but what do I know. https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/pro-trump-republican-secession-rhetoric-texas-elsewhere-more-punchline-ncna1259016
  21. The latest in a view from way outside the economics bubble https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
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