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Everything posted by Jorma

  1. Actually I'd like to party like 1969 but I'd be asleep at 9 O'clock.
  2. Hey doctor. Since the Reserve Requirement is now zero should we still call the banking system a Fractional Reserve system? What name do you recommend? Asking for a friend.
  3. It's looking a little shaky on my August end of QT guess but September, October, November are just too obvious.
  4. I'm not sure how much short interest there is in Treasury coupon securities plus strategies to profit from rising rates, some sort of synthetic shorts. ( I don't mean the polyester ones Lee wears to the beach.) If there is a significant amount of short interest left and it starts to bail?
  5. I forget. Why is there a Fed Funds market 2 years after Reserve Requirements hit zero?
  6. Yep. The Fed raised interest rates this week. Every expert says. Never mind the numbers. I've been saying, the Fed has lost control but lucky for them nobody has noticed. I'm not breaking out the Joy Division hiwever. Not my thing.
  7. When it's time for the Boogie Man to get some sleep the last thing he does is check under the bed, for Chuck Norris.
  8. Chuck Norris doesn't do pushups. Chuck Norris pushes the earth, down.
  9. Chuck Norris doesn't use clocks or watches. Chuck Norris decides what time it is.
  10. While we wait does anyone want to hear my Chuck Norris jokes?
  11. Since I saw that TNX MACD two line weekly chart I've been thinking of scenarios where the long end crashes, if ever so briefly. Just for fun. I have penciled in a serious fall in stocks as a likely trigger. Maybe something else. If a plunge to 2% or lower happened then the Feds loss of control would be obvious to even the most dim witted. Then what? Who know? Scenarios rarely play out anyway. Still if it happened I'd bet the ranch on shorting Treasuries. It would be Black Monday 87, in reverse.
  12. The Fed is losing control of the long end of rates, to the downside.
  13. I don't know. The NY Times says 'the European Central Bank moves to reverse years of ultra-loose policy". (Why the hyphen, I don't know that either) Sounds like they are going to be tight to me. Right? One has to understand that the NY TImes is a friend of the Fed and nothing has shaped the narrow perceptions and broad misperceptions of the Fed and monetary policy more among non-conservatives than the NY Times. To this day if you criticize the Fed your marked as a member of the John Birch Society.
  14. If we can get this rally on a 9% CPI print imagine what it would do at 18%.
  15. The thing is those rates are a joke when measured against the inflation numbers. They are an incentive to borrow. Everyone knows the Fed is a joke and that's exactly how they want it. Until they don't.
  16. Nobody believes interest rates can whip inflation now, or at least nobody believes that punitive rates will ever be enacted by central banks again. So we are at the 'What Me Worry' stage in the market. Actually nobody believes interest rates can rise more than a few points in any possible case. It's an idea beyond most people conception. So as ever we await rates rising against central bank wishes and powerless to stop them. Or as the man said long long ago, nothing's changed until rates rise.
  17. Here is the chart that has had me nervous for a month. MACD is not the last word on anything but a weekly crossover from the highest level in 18 years gives one pause.
  18. Word is going around there may be a British Pound crises. Why not? Who is going to bail out theBOE?
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