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Everything posted by Jorma

  1. "the BOJ purchased almost twice the net issuance of Japanese government bonds in 2017 and now owns 43 percent of the outstanding bonds. By purchasing large fractions of both the flow and stock of the bonds, the BOJ has effectively controlled long yields." As of 7/2019 https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2019/07/15/the-asset-holdings-of-the-bank-of-japan#:~:text=To control yields in this,has effectively controlled long yields. Not a news flash. It's always just been a matter of time until all central banks are singing.
  2. The biggest hospital in my W MI county had zero Covid cases the other day. I got my second vaccination last week. The Canadian border still closed until the 21st and probably till who knows when, June?. Other areas much worse and worsening. Urp seems not so well off Covid wise. How Lee is going to get out of ̶ ̷D̷o̷d̷g̷e̷ Zadar I've got no clue. Not that he should share. Not as a matter of fact. Good luck there. The merger of the Treasury and the Fed is something to behold. (I know I know, they have always been partners) It is MMT except without all the absurd nonsense about gover
  3. This snippet from the 2/27 Liquidty Trader "But oddly, dealer cash accounts rose by more, and Treasury cash fell by more, than what we can account for with these paydowns, and the other things we know about, like MBS settlements. It appears that there was a direct shift of funds from the Treasury to the dealers that was outside these channels." vs my musings and your response 2/19 There is no way they will allow this thing to deflate. If the PD's or bigger players are in trouble then I think we are at the point where the Fed and all the institutions will cheat. Go off balance
  4. Just wait until the Fed announces its not QE, active management of the yield curve. There is zero popular or political opposition to this by the way. Everyone wants more money. However it seems to me that then nobody in their right mind would then buy Treasury coupons as the real interest rate will likely to go hugely negative. Well one problem at a time. As I've said for years, at every possible moment the answer is always more ease, more money, so the system can survive another day. On a little longer time frame the likelihood that there won't be a United States or US Treasury woul
  5. The latest in a view from way outside the economics bubble https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
  6. Noland finally got to write an I told you so article. It feels like a case can be made that the credit cycle has turned. It's about time as they have been falling for almost 39 years. Well if you believe in economic cycles but many don't because they are always so choppy. The 60 year credit cycle is a popular credit cycle benchmark among we cycle believers. The idea that rates could trend up for10 or 30 years now is simply outside the imagination of most living people. I've been willing to concede that rates may not trend up for a very long time, till that big asteroid hits for instan
  7. Yesterdays 2 minute accident in the 10yr is the only solid show of illiquidty I know of
  8. At this rate I'm going to have to turn my laptop upside down so the 'all patterns resolve bullishly' rules stands
  9. There was a little accident at exactly 1PM in the ten year Treasury machinery. 16.14 in TNX. Something to shoot for.
  10. They don't know whatthey are doing. Nobody does. The numbers are too big.
  11. But there are the $139bn notes coming out on the 1st. Now I see some wags are saying the Fed wants a steeper yield curve, to get banks to go out there to fund the deficit.. Cripes.
  12. I don't actually think it's this. Maybe more like in front of a bicycle.
  13. Fun chart. The story of the entire adult lives of most working people today. Including banking and finance of course. The lesson; interest rates only fall. I suppose the US could follow Japan and just monetize most of the government debt, keeping even long term rates scraping bottom for years on end while the currency stays viable. That's what everyone is counting on, if they know it or not. Anyhow a fun chart as you can get the date week by week and try to remember what was happening at the time. https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart
  14. Space based ETF's coming soon. Thought you should know.
  15. Looks like TNX is going to open north of 15.00, 1.5%
  16. The thing is nobody is going to the Fed Repo window. https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000 Big gap down on 10Y Note futures, ZN, on the opening last evening, and getting worse.
  17. How many times have they played this movie?
  18. It doesn't mean a thing but TNX is exactly where it was a year ago, to the day, as it plunged during the Covid, sell Mortimore sell moment. A point never seen again, till now. Another milestone probably nobody even knows about is that HSBC just announced it is leaving the US retail banking biz. The legendary criminal bank bought the failing criminal Household Finance in 2002 to bail it out and since it had a tiny bank attached HSBC became a US bank. Everyone was overjoyed. I think its exit from the US makes a pretty good story about the end of an era.
  19. I always make the mistake of thinking they know what they are doing. I mean $139bn of coupons on 3/1. WTF? So goose the short end this week and bury the long stuff the next? https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/press_cashpydwn.htm
  20. There is no way they will allow this thing to deflate. If the PD's or bigger players are in trouble then I think we are at the point where the Fed and all the institutions will cheat. Go off balance sheet. How? I've got no clue. Face it. the Feds balance sheet is a joke. A polite fiction. The principal will never be settled. The debt isn't debt. The assets aren't assets. Nobody cares. On the other hand they can't stop pretending that the books mean anything. It that pretense which is poisonings social relations but nobody knows it. It's the social political breakdown which would c
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