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Everything posted by Jorma

  1. Lee. What's your take on the kerfluffle with the Fed in the repo market? Well somebody needs cash
  2. I wish you would reach out to Treasury to ask when they are going to start calling in Notes like Trump told them to
  3. All cycles are on pause until Fed words. That's the plan anyway. You never know about a rouge tweet.
  4. I figure somebody should note this idiocy from Trump since nobody else has. 9/11 Tweet. The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet..... There is a slight problem with this "refinance our debt" thing. The Treasury hasn't issued a callable bond since 1987. Oh well, Munchkin should get right on it. I'm sure the market would love 50 billion or a trillion in non callable Treasury notes called in. Cripes. Hey Lee, You have been in contact with Treasury flacks. How about shooting them a question about when they are going to start to call in Treasuries.
  5. Not enough liquidity to support coupons and stocks this week. There won't be, off and on, till QE. Words aren't enough. Show us the money Jerry.
  6. As they say, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile. (9/3) Cripes. TNX 14.39. This doesn't seem like a prudent purchase but what do I know?
  7. And every piece of paper that isn't nailed down. I guess it is an historic day because as I understand it there was no end date given, or total maybe. QEInfinty. The initial 20bn/mo is just the foot in the door. Up next Jerry Powell. Show me the money Jerry.
  8. Complaints that 20bn/mo isn't enough QE. It's never enough. There is no possible way to convince QE fans that it doesn't work because they will always say it wasn't enough.
  9. The ECB announcement is at 7:45 EST. I see estimates of 20 to 50 billion Euros a month in QE. I'll guess anything under 30 is going to bring an initial negative reaction.
  10. Tesla up almost 5% after a tweet from Musk announcing the S model set a record lap time for a 4 door sedan.
  11. What are you thoughts about Boeing Lee? (that should get rise out of him)
  12. The 'news' is they are considering nixing the IPO. I'll bet one b̶i̶l̶l̶i̶o̶n̶ dollar they will go ahead with it. Releasing the stock into the wild is the only way they can inflate the value again. The public is way ahead of institutional investors in appreciation that profits don't mean a thing. Besides, how bad is it really if insiders end up with a net worth of $1bn instead of $2bn, or something like that? It sure beats being some common schlub.
  13. There was a report that there were $74bn in corporate bond offerings this week. Coincidentally that's just about what the Treasury did as well. This AM Bloomberg opines that the ECB is going to do $45bn a month in QE.
  14. Cripes. TNX 14.39. This doesn't seem like a prudent purchase but what do I know?
  15. The long term weather pattern, let's call sea level part of the weather, is for a lot of Florida to be under the sea. Take your pick in 100 years or 200, it amounts to potentially the worst real estate investment since Atlantis. I see no predictions of a bending south to hit Miami. That's the ultimate nightmare scenario. I still recommend Nebraska. Admittedly in 200 years some of that could be a desert. Those are sand dunes under the grass.
  16. Some very bad timing for sure. Not that any analysis is available to time such things except the likely rising trend of hurricanes with a warmer climate so more in the nature of bad luck. If things go close to as bad as possible I heard then it would be the worst FL hurricane in 30 years. Usually the worst case doesn't happen but somehow it feels right that this would be that time.
  17. I'm sure they want to squeeze the shorts but with that Treasury supply I'm not sure they can do it. It was very Dover Sole however.
  18. $120+bn in new Treasury paper between tomorrow and Tuesday. Is that a lot?
  19. It has to be remembered that as long as rates are falling, which they have been doing for 38 years, that the mark to market price of notes and bonds trends higher so they look just fine on a balance sheet. When rates seemed destined to rise it wasn't easy I bet to watch the mark to market price of your paper, which is liquid, go down. It feels like deflation. The system cannot face the deflation in price of $XXX Trillions of paper. It's the day in day out, year in year out, value of your asset that weighs on minds. The total return craziness can be and is ignored. It's too far away. https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart
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