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Jorma

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Everything posted by Jorma

  1. If, I say if. it busts 2800 this thing could go down like Christmas Eve.
  2. The leaves are green, the sky is blue and the air is warm, summer is at hand. Nobody expects something bad to happen in the markets this time of year.
  3. What happened with the stock/convertible bond offering announced at the beginning of the month? I assume it hasn't gone off. I do a Google search and see nothing after 5/3. WTF. With $2+bn they can carry on. Without it they may be dead.
  4. The car biz and manufacturing in general are bottomless wells of costs. The very thing that makes the economy work for people. As anyone who is anyone knows now, or investor class, the purpose of the economy is not to serve people but rather people are meant to serve the economy. Now I am going to go right off the rails into moral philosophy but any system that demands or expects people to serve it is evil. Structurally superior business, for making profit. Sure.
  5. Oh, sorry my Cubs guy Baez, the greatest baseball player in the world, beat your Phillies last night.
  6. On the Primary Dealers huge long Treasury positions; It seems to me there is sort of a disconnect in that their high prices imply high demand. Especially since it seems everyone is expecting lower rates to come so why not buy now. Maybe the PD's are sort of happy to be so long. Let's just suppose there is a nice little crater in the stock market again and a knee jerk reaction into Treasuries at the same time the supply is low, I know these are back asswards ways to look at it but all which ways should get a peek.
  7. I've got this nagging feeling that, as another liquidity crunch is set up for the fall, like always, that the timing is just a little too cute. Too easy.
  8. Nobody will see this but the thing that is nagging me is that nobody expects something bad to happen to the markets in the late spring or summer. Surely the liquidity story says watch out for the fall, again. It's always October right? Anyway it bugs me that it's all far too obvious. It can't be that easy can it?
  9. Wow. Talk about disinformation. There are two of those sensors. You would think with two sensors the system would look at the two of them at all times but you would be wrong. If the sensor was bad before takeoff or damaged after makes no difference because the stupid system just kept looking at the bad one. I kid you not. This bird strike thing is disinformation. It does nothing to absolve BA of making a horrendous mistake in their system design. BA up 1%, Figures
  10. Get ready for temporary suspension of tariffs. Leaving the door open to months of 'promising' negotiations. With buybacks coming back on stream and the dearth of Treasury supply, well you know the drill.
  11. Fed heads with words today. Jay, Harker and they guy whose name sounds like a sexually transmitted disease.
  12. If the pilots fly them, now, then you can know they are safe. Collectively, and in the US there are unions, they have 10,000 times more knowledge and information on this than we ever will. That said it was never a particularly good performing plane that among other things has very high take off and landing speeds and an obscure flaw where the ailerons may lock up. It's likely the MCAS caused this condition. Again if pilots return to the plane then you can be sure they are safe. Maybe they won't. I was just a grunt but I worked on mechanical systems my whole life and with controls engineers for 20 years. It has been flying for 50 years with a great safety record. It isn't inherently unstable. This latest iteration of the plane is a Frakenplane. It's birth coinciding with a period of now unbelievable safety. There has not been a crash of a passenger plane in the US of a large airliner in going on 18 years when there used to be multiple crashes a year from the mid 60's on. The response of Boeing and regulators after the first crash, then the second is beyond the pale. Then last week the pathetic little boot licker acting FAA secretary who refused to ground the thing after the second crash and only did when fking Trump said it should be, had the nerve to blame 'foreign pilots' for the crashes. Disgust with the whole affair is justified but know it won't mean a thing. Nobody higher up will pay except Boeing top execs might get a smaller bonus this year. While the whole saga is a good analog for what is going on with the entire system don't get carried away by the story. It isn't like the banking and financial system where crashes have been endemic for 30 years. Just the opposite in fact. http://www.askthepilot.com/ethiopian-737max-crash/ (Smith mentions two 737 crashes here but those were not caused by anything to do with the air frame or its deficiencies but a bad hydraulic servo valve) The Air France flight 447, an Airbus A330, plunged into the Atlantic in 2009 on a combination of failed sensors and ultra modern flight controls.
  13. The control problems are fixable and will be. They are going back up.
  14. I know news is noise but what if there is news and it isn't reported. China just started taking delivery of Iranian oil. 3 weeks ago the US said it would impose sanctions on China for doing so. The trade talks fell apart almost instantly. Not that you would know it here because after 3 weeks not a peep has come from the Administration or the new media about it. Instead the NY Times yesterday said that China screwed the trade talks up by changing the terms. Looked at from a paranoid sort of way this is a step towards war. https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2019/5/17/china-restarts-purchases-of-iranian-oil-bucking-trumps-sanctions
  15. It's so weird that T bills didn't drop during the selloff. Well in general since the supply has gone negative.
  16. If Uber's robo taxis ever hit the road I predict the , say, $70K vehicles, will depreciate about 100% in 30 days.
  17. This is funny and I didn't know it was possible. Some Uber employees were given stock grants that ended up being higher than the IPO price.
  18. Fed head says early end of QT and lower rates a possible response to financial market conditions. Also said markets were "slightly frothy".
  19. Oil plunged, even with rumors of tanker sabotage or worse in the Straits. Now that's trading. Kneecap the weak hands and the punters.
  20. It has been two weeks since the administration announce new sanctions would be imposed on China for buying Iranian oil and I have not seen one story about what those sanctions are nor if China has continued to buy the oil. It seemed impossible to me they would stop but that nobody is asking or looking is bizarre and a measure of how stupid we have become. I thought at the time of the announcement that it could blow up the trade talks. I mean how stupid would Xi be to sign a deal and then be slapped with new sanctions. Such would be a political disaster. I know nobody thinks the Chinese leadership doesn't have to play politics but they do. The cannot afford to be humiliated. By the way not buying Iranian oil would be a humiliation in itself. Iran is an important part of the whole BRI thing. Now I could be all wet about the oil thing being a cause of the trade talk blow up and their reversal of a week ago but how are we to know if nobody asks.
  21. Is it too early to start a pool on when the Fed will announce QE? 10/18/19 8:31AM EST
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