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Everything posted by Jorma

  1. I've got the VIX penciled in for single digits again.
  2. I hate to bring economics stuff up but there is a labor shortage. Covid has reduced the size of the labor pool. Meaning people who can't work at all and many many of those who can't work as much or as well.
  3. I suspect that the 30 day Tbill is going to stick right here at 4% now. Right where they want it I guess. There is after all $2Tn sitting around to mop up the short end. So then the Fed will catch up.
  4. So come March or so the Fed will resume QE with stocks at all time highs? Sound about right.
  5. I was thinking now that they have the 30 day Tbill at exactly 4% they can probably keep it there as long as they want, keeping in mind the RRP slush fund. It sure seems like the markets are exceedingly well managed right now.
  6. WTF? ZN, the 10 year T Note gaps up? I mostly like to pretend that nothing surprises me.
  7. The silence from the Coin Guy bodes poorly for his possible survival so there is probably an empty chair in Nebraska I guess.
  8. Fed officials may back a slower increase in rates but soon enough the Fed may have to do something about it. That is more QE. The Fed can hope for any damn thing under the sun. So can everyone.
  9. Good luck finding cranberry sauce in the South of France. Turkey too for that matter.
  10. That little drop in RRP totals, you know, little, just $100bn give or take, seems to have been a one shot deal. Maybe it was FTX related.
  11. IRX gaps up again on todays big Tbill settlement. Amazing chart. Find your own but here's one. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24IRX No matter I guess. Inflations coming down right?
  12. Gap in TNX at 36.59 from 10/4 in sight. There are a couple of more tiny ones below that.
  13. Hasn't there been any stink about yesterdays phoney Saudi raising production story?
  14. Could be. Perhaps a vanity position. That's a tiny position you can brag about hitting an 8 bagger on.
  15. One way to tell the story is that while everyone knows the Fed will 'ease' when markets tumble this has lead to many essentially front running the eventual easing, which makes easing difficult since markets are not tumbling. That's called a dilemma. There's fun in a GS guy who is now Prime Minister delivering the news your credit has dried up UK. However our guys own all the best bits. Good luck.
  16. I saw on a news ticker that Fartfetch missed in the 3rd quarter. After adjusting my glasses I realized it was Farfetch FTCH
  17. I don't see much reason why they can't keep it up till Friday to crush the shorts.
  18. I was thinking maybe RRP money was going back into T BIlls where it belongs but I see the RRP rate at 3.8 and the 30 day T bill at 3.6. It's pretty damn funny there are $2TN dollars floating around with no place to go. So let's see. If the Fed were to pay 3.8% on $2Tn for a year that would be $76bn that would otherwise go to the Treasury. If they lowered the RRP rate to some smaller fraction of the 30 day T bill rate then if several hundred billion or a trillion went to them instead, short rates would come down. Ooops, wrong message. As a slush fund the RRP program may be a real winner but to the extent that 6 maybe 7 people in the world care, the RRP program is the proverbial PR red headed step child. Now why nobody cares about $2Tn escapes me. Lee, you have a history of communications with the Fed. Why don't you ask for the list that's supposed to be public, of RRP participants.
  19. Finally, a blip down in the RRP totals. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/
  20. Last Thursday might have been the slinkiest move ever. I mean the massive moves across all asset classes in a matter of seconds on one perfectly ordinary 'number' was, well stinky. It didn't even help the Feds agenda. In fact it hurt it and some Fedhead was on the wire today saying one number isn't going to sway the Fed. Who didn't know that?
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