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Jorma

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Jorma last won the day on January 17

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About Jorma

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    Professor of Stock Proctology
  • Birthday 06/28/1951

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  1. Some serious slot rattling going on. I suppose one has to take into account that the Fed could drop the Yield Curve Control card at any moment. A Friday afternoon? Not likely.
  2. There is nothing to remember. They just buy outstanding Treasury coupon issues. A few trillion should do it. Here is the thing. Nobody is against it. They aren't even against it. There is just the problem that since the BOE the first central bank came into existence the very first rule for central banks was you don't take a dominant position in your governments debt. Well that rule is out the window but they are loath to say that's what they are doing. They can't bring themselves to say it. It's a funny situation if you think about it. I sympathize with the inflationists, whic
  3. Steve LIesman, Fed Whisperer, says Powell is not going to act on the long end. We will see. http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/video/ Liesman is quite the name for PR man posing as a journalist. Well he actually thinks he's a journalist. So Trump wasn't sworn in as President today? Speaking of funny names how is your old pal Dick Arms doing Lee?
  4. I see on the wire that the market fell when Powell "offered nothing but platitudes about rising rates". Since when do they dump on the Fed chair? Pretty serious stuff.
  5. Rut row. TNX = 1.5%. The Treasury should just cut out the middle men and by Treasuries direct on days like this. Or something. I suppose a retest of the spike top 1.61 last Thursday makes some sense. Nothing but zeros in Fed Repoland. https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000
  6. "the BOJ purchased almost twice the net issuance of Japanese government bonds in 2017 and now owns 43 percent of the outstanding bonds. By purchasing large fractions of both the flow and stock of the bonds, the BOJ has effectively controlled long yields." As of 7/2019 https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2019/07/15/the-asset-holdings-of-the-bank-of-japan#:~:text=To control yields in this,has effectively controlled long yields. Not a news flash. It's always just been a matter of time until all central banks are singing.
  7. The biggest hospital in my W MI county had zero Covid cases the other day. I got my second vaccination last week. The Canadian border still closed until the 21st and probably till who knows when, June?. Other areas much worse and worsening. Urp seems not so well off Covid wise. How Lee is going to get out of ̶ ̷D̷o̷d̷g̷e̷ Zadar I've got no clue. Not that he should share. Not as a matter of fact. Good luck there. The merger of the Treasury and the Fed is something to behold. (I know I know, they have always been partners) It is MMT except without all the absurd nonsense about gover
  8. This snippet from the 2/27 Liquidty Trader "But oddly, dealer cash accounts rose by more, and Treasury cash fell by more, than what we can account for with these paydowns, and the other things we know about, like MBS settlements. It appears that there was a direct shift of funds from the Treasury to the dealers that was outside these channels." vs my musings and your response 2/19 There is no way they will allow this thing to deflate. If the PD's or bigger players are in trouble then I think we are at the point where the Fed and all the institutions will cheat. Go off balance
  9. Just wait until the Fed announces its not QE, active management of the yield curve. There is zero popular or political opposition to this by the way. Everyone wants more money. However it seems to me that then nobody in their right mind would then buy Treasury coupons as the real interest rate will likely to go hugely negative. Well one problem at a time. As I've said for years, at every possible moment the answer is always more ease, more money, so the system can survive another day. On a little longer time frame the likelihood that there won't be a United States or US Treasury woul
  10. The latest in a view from way outside the economics bubble https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
  11. Noland finally got to write an I told you so article. It feels like a case can be made that the credit cycle has turned. It's about time as they have been falling for almost 39 years. Well if you believe in economic cycles but many don't because they are always so choppy. The 60 year credit cycle is a popular credit cycle benchmark among we cycle believers. The idea that rates could trend up for10 or 30 years now is simply outside the imagination of most living people. I've been willing to concede that rates may not trend up for a very long time, till that big asteroid hits for instan
  12. Yesterdays 2 minute accident in the 10yr is the only solid show of illiquidty I know of
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