Jorma

Oh, sorry my Cubs guy Baez, the greatest baseball player in the world, beat your Phillies last night.

SOX

On the Primary Dealers huge long Treasury positions; It seems to me there is sort of a disconnect in that their high prices imply high demand. Especially since it seems everyone is expecting lower rates to come so why not buy now. Maybe the PD's are sort of happy to be so long. Let's just suppose there is a nice little crater in the stock market again and a knee jerk reaction into Treasuries at the same time the supply is low, I know these are back asswards ways to look at it but all which ways should get a peek.

I've got this nagging feeling that, as another liquidity crunch is set up for the fall, like always, that the timing is just a little too cute. Too easy.

Nobody will see this but the thing that is nagging me is that nobody expects something bad to happen to the markets in the late spring or summer. Surely the liquidity story says watch out for the fall, again. It's always October right? Anyway it bugs me that it's all far too obvious. It can't be that easy can it?

Wow. Talk about disinformation. There are two of those sensors. You would think with two sensors the system would look at the two of them at all times but you would be wrong. If the sensor was bad before takeoff or damaged after makes no difference because the stupid system just kept looking at the bad one. I kid you not. This bird strike thing is disinformation. It does nothing to absolve BA of making a horrendous mistake in their system design. BA up 1%, Figures

Get ready for temporary suspension of tariffs. Leaving the door open to months of 'promising' negotiations. With buybacks coming back on stream and the dearth of Treasury supply, well you know the drill.

Fed heads with words today. Jay, Harker and they guy whose name sounds like a sexually transmitted disease.

If the pilots fly them, now, then you can know they are safe. Collectively, and in the US there are unions, they have 10,000 times more knowledge and information on this than we ever will. That said it was never a particularly good performing plane that among other things has very high take off and landing speeds and an obscure flaw where the ailerons may lock up. It's likely the MCAS caused this condition. Again if pilots return to the plane then you can be sure they are safe. Maybe they won't. I was just a grunt but I worked on mechanical systems my whole life and with controls engineers for 20 years. It has been flying for 50 years with a great safety record. It isn't inherently unstable. This latest iteration of the plane is a Frakenplane. It's birth coinciding with a period of now unbelievable safety. There has not been a crash of a passenger plane in the US of a large airliner in going on 18 years when there used to be multiple crashes a year from the mid 60's on. The response of Boeing and regulators after the first crash, then the second is beyond the pale. Then last week the pathetic little boot licker acting FAA secretary who refused to ground the thing after the second crash and only did when fking Trump said it should be, had the nerve to blame 'foreign pilots' for the crashes. Disgust with the whole affair is justified but know it won't mean a thing. Nobody higher up will pay except Boeing top execs might get a smaller bonus this year. While the whole saga is a good analog for what is going on with the entire system don't get carried away by the story. It isn't like the banking and financial system where crashes have been endemic for 30 years. Just the opposite in fact. http://www.askthepilot.com/ethiopian-737max-crash/ (Smith mentions two 737 crashes here but those were not caused by anything to do with the air frame or its deficiencies but a bad hydraulic servo valve) The Air France flight 447, an Airbus A330, plunged into the Atlantic in 2009 on a combination of failed sensors and ultra modern flight controls.

The control problems are fixable and will be. They are going back up.

I know news is noise but what if there is news and it isn't reported. China just started taking delivery of Iranian oil. 3 weeks ago the US said it would impose sanctions on China for doing so. The trade talks fell apart almost instantly. Not that you would know it here because after 3 weeks not a peep has come from the Administration or the new media about it. Instead the NY Times yesterday said that China screwed the trade talks up by changing the terms. Looked at from a paranoid sort of way this is a step towards war. https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2019/5/17/china-restarts-purchases-of-iranian-oil-bucking-trumps-sanctions

Crash to me means taking out the December low.

Looks like put holders are going to get their due.

Pretty damn scary. Or is it just me?

It's so weird that T bills didn't drop during the selloff. Well in general since the supply has gone negative.