Jorma

At any rate it is always certain that any stock market stumble will send TNX down fast and sure enough here we are. Which means nothing has changed. For almost 40 years it has been three steps forward one step back for stocks and for rates it has been one step forward and two steps back. Same old same old. Perhaps a change will be in the air when run of the mill corporate bond rates don't come down. What is a good index to follow that? Better yet would be a spread chart, Corp/TNX.

That's why I always recommend Nebraska

I use Microsoft brand wireless mouses, ah mice, or is it mices, whatever. They work perfectly and the batteries sometimes last months and I almost never turn them off. Hell, a few more coronavirus cases and some more stock selloff and the Fed could throw in real QE next week.

Fed meeting next week and for the first time in a long time there is very little chatter about it. Do they dare utter a few tiny words about scaling back NotQE and Temp operations, or dare I say it, increasing them. One tiny word on any kind of intent to pause would be a good excuse for a pullback.

You might note when you visit these old cities, many which still contain cores of great beauty, despite the fact that there has been no inflation of their values much above the background level for hundreds of years. Unlike America where if a city or town does not inflate for a few years, it decays.

It's pretty cute of the Fed to throw around the word reserves. A brilliant bit of propaganda instituted by Powell to start. It may fool most people but Kashnkari knows that reserves are cash. Money. Everyone on a basic level knows the difference between a financial piece of paper, figuratively, and money. Kashnkari, or someone like him is going to be the next chairman, even if a Democrat appoints him. There is zero political opposition to stupendous monetary expansion. None, Not anywhere in the world

Fed considering doing repos directly with securities dealers and hedge funds. https://www.wsj.com/articles/hedge-funds-could-make-one-potential-fed-repo-market-fix-hard-to-stomach-11578997801?reflink=e2twmkts

I understand the logic of unlimited capital, now that the mechanisms have been perfected. It's a system. It's the American dream. Credit for everybody. Then too the alternative, deflation, would be horrendous. The Feds expansion has barely begun. It's like the top of the 2nd inning. Every politician is on board. The thing is the whole system is run by a bunch of clowns. You'd think eventually there would be a wreck.

Fed does not care about elections is the story crossing my news feed. Not said is the Fed doesn't care if there are elections or not. If the election were to be canceled or nullified it would operate as before.

My gut feeling is the markets will substantiate Trump by rising. I tell you they are going to inflate this mofo, big time. More ease from the Fed is not out of the question, anytime.

"War" just means us bombing the hell out of someone. Mostly non combatants. Hopefully that won't happen. On the other hand, buy death.

My prediction for 12/30/2029 SPX 12,000 SOMA $20TN

The Fed has, let me check, unlimited $'s to take care of the long end. Not to worry about those dealers. BOJ's assets are what, 100% of GDP? Hell, the Fed's 20% is nutin.

The spike in TNX happened pre stock opening and I figured that might call for a little dip in stocks to fix. We got the dip but it didn't fix TNX. It's my go to view that Treasury coupons can always be brought down with a stock selloff in any short term. Not this time.

Let me suggest that the Fed isn't trapped. Instead consider that the Fed has been liberated. Liberated from any stigma attached to monetizing government deficits, or fostering breakneck monetary growth among other things. What was the ultimate central bank vice has now morphed into a universal virtue on the political stage. If the 'markets' will cooperate is another story. If too much debt goes bad in places the Fed can't rescue it and then what is the timeline? A year or ten or fifty?