I'm stuck on the idea that they can't hold oil over 40. They will have to defend 30 then 20. The bet is that the inflation of ephemeral tech 'assets' trumps the deflation of the worlds leading hard asset. We will see.
Now we just have to wait of McConnell to declare a stimulus package is back on the table. Everyone seems to have missed that Trump swung back to support late last week. That was sort of walked back by Chief of Staff Meadows but he will go where the boss says to go. Trump nixed the earlier stimulus bills because it had extra money for the PO.
Fed Head Kaplan on CNBC actually pointed out that stock/GDP ratio is in record territory and that a correction could be "helpful". He also said, I am going by my news ticker, that his forecast for strong Q4 growth is contingent on stimulus.
That $1.5TN sitting in the Feds checking account amounts to 7.5% of GDP. I wonder if they had spent $1TN of it, 5% of GDP, it would have boosted the economic numbers? Well I'm not really wondering. There is a small window to still pass some spending to boost the numbers pre election but time is running out. If nothing passes and BIden wins I doubt any new stimulus/relief will pass until the next congress as nothing will come out of the Senate. Don't underestimate how bad things could get before next spring. But that's far off. Right now not having spent that free money is perhaps the
It's been quite a feat of levitation to keep oil up near $40 all summer. Gas prices didn't budge over the holiday. That never happens. Well Christmas 08. The worlds most valuable asset isn't what it used to be.
Fedhead Bullard also said Q3 will be the best GDP ever. Meaning largest rise. He said 20% (annual growth rate) Q1 is now pegged at minus 5% and Q2 minus 32%.
Trump is likely to issue an Executive order to send everyone like $1000 before the election. It isn't Constitutional but Treasury will oblige.
By the way unconstitutional isn't actually illegal. There is no statute that I know of that prevents the President from bypassing congress to disperse funds.
The rest of the world is abandoning the dollar. Now if that is reflected in its exchange value over any long term I don't know but it sure seems like it should.
There is no sign to me that the monetary exchange system is in any trouble. Still. Besides by any measure the US is really really dysfunctional.
If Uncle Sam does not bail out the state governments literally millions of jobs are going bye bye. I don't doubt that it is going to be a deteriorating employment situation which is going to break this market, and everything else.
