Best ever Liquidity Trader report Lee.
The shutdown is the unexpected event which is going to prove you right to people who just can't see it. I suppose the previous significant shutdowns could be seen in the same way but I suspect this time the bell will go off in peoples heads. The effect of ending the shutdown could be blunted if the Treasury decides not to refund its surplus.
We have to hand it to TBAC for acting responsibly in a system where everyone is out for themselves. It's almost shocking in this day and age that these people from the likes of C,JPM, GS and the like continue to advise policies which work against their institutions short term interests.