We're going to have another blood bath on Monday.
Debt defaults will be widespread. Companies will be offering more shares. And most of that bail-out money will end up in a few accounts in the Cayman Islands.
Talked to a friend in Parma, Italy today and the E.R. at peak had 980 new people admitted per day and today it had zero new cases. Quarantine can work! I think deaths will peak in less than a month from now in my area. The trick is going to be scaling out of quarantine safely and getting businesses back up and running and restricting travel. Hopefully we'll have more face masks by then.
As optimistic as I feel about the SF Bay Area I am much less so for other areas which started too late. They will take longer and could reinfect the rest of the country.
I think we're going to retes
Trump tweet: "With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4"
I think those trillions might as well have had gas poured on them and lit on fire because they are just going to disappear. We will have huge medical bills and massive capital destruction. Sure we'll spend it all but on the things that really don't add them much to inflation outside the inflation of essential food, water and medical care. The rest is going to pay off debt that would otherwise default and towards one time medical care expenses.
This market is way more optimistic than I am. I just don't get it. Maybe it's just like Jimi says above - inflation adjusted nominal move. But I see consumer credit, the oil industry, mortgages, small businesses all just getting destroyed over the next few months. I've been busy reading about the disease so much I really need to catch up on my reading on the economy so I can understand this move.
One note though - I'm not big on investing in companies that are running drug trials and vaccines in a pandemic. They will make some money but it won't be a huge payday most likely. They will ha
This is a very helpful link - you can view all of US but the top drop down let's you look at numbers for your own state for bed, ICU and ventilator shortages. This is from WU and based on their model I would say this will start of noisy (wrong) but as time goes on will get more and more accurate. So you can get a pretty good idea if you should stay in your state if you are at risk. California is in good shape in terms of ICU/Beds but we need more than a thousand ventilators. New York needs to massively expand.
I think Spanish Flu infections in the Northern Hemisphere reduced significantly at the end of July of the first year. It then mutated in the fall and by November broke out again. It was the second year that killed the bulk of people in the Northern Hemisphere. It lasted for three years total with the third year death rates equaled the first. So you can imagine in in stock chart terminology as a head and shoulders pattern.
To test and mass produce a vaccine that is safe will be at least 12-18 months and "at least" is doing a lot of work in the sentence. It could take much longer. Small batches could possibly be read in only six months for first responders if needed if an early phase 3 trial is a success.
Right now we have 17 drugs already approved by the FDA that were tested a kidney cell lines infected with SARS-COV-2 that have be proven effective in doses that are not cytotoxic. But properly full clinical trial results (in humans) will probably not come out for a couple of months. But we will get results
Son of a bitch - it eats your crown jewels too!
Effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection upon male gonadal function: A single center-based study Posted March 24, 2020
Sorry for not participating today - I'm currently in a state of denial about the scale of fiscal and monitory stimulus. As dangerous as COVID-19 is I have this feeling in my gut that what we just did to America's future is far more ominous. I simply can't believe that rational human beings traded the beacon of light that is America to prop up the stock market wealth and power of the oligarchs. What type of fascism this will spiral into I can not see. But I do see a dark and foreboding night descending upon us. And I see myself imaging a time of light long since extinguished and wishing I could
Wow Jimi I had no idea how personal this was to your family. I'm so sorry. You must be very shaken by this experience. I know that I would be - and I know that I am! It does sound like you may have had it. If that is the case at least you may be blessed with immunity for a couple of years. If they start testing here I hope you test. I am so glad you all survived this.
I had no idea. So how are you and the kids now?
And I agree - this has been in the US long enough to start doing serology testing for Ab.. You can't do that at the beginning because it takes say 6-10 days to get an immune response really going. But this has been in CA, WA and NY long enough for some serious research.
Until we get that data I'm going to be looking at ICU saturation in the US and excess dead bodies that can't be handled. And I'm going to be looking closely to see if the curve in bending down here. Right now I see Italy is really starting to bend down and I like that very much. In the US there are so many artifacts in the data because we are basically testing de novo a population already infected in say NYC that I can't make anything out of it. So I need to slow down and wait for that data.