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sandy beach

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Everything posted by sandy beach

  1. Drug trial - not so good: https://www.ft.com/content/0a4872d1-4cac-4040-846f-ce32daa09d99
  2. Someone just dumped a huge archive of docs from the Wuhan Virology Lab, WHO and Gates foundation.
  3. Jimi, I’ve never looked into this before. It looks like the Interior Department sells all the oil to the Department of Energy for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. These are via leases of US public lands and tribal lands. They collect fees on the leases and distribute payments back to the states and tribes. I haven’t read enough to understand how these leases work in the mechanism for price discovery and if it could involve futures. The DOE said it was considering leasing SPR space for a year to private companies for storage as well. I understand nothing about natural resources: https
  4. I'm guessing some bank in Europe is blowing up tonight on some oil derivatives gone bad.
  5. USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Serology Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections: 2.8% - 5.6% (221,000 to 442,000) of population have antibodies (vs. 7,994 confirmed cases) http://createsend.com/t/j-296D9D8CE54262BB2540EF23F30FEDED
  6. Time to go long Winnebago again - we buy everyone in the high risk group a Winnebago and the Fed pays them to $7 a gallon to burn up all the extra oil and drive around the US until we find a vaccine! Alternately we pay the airlines to burn the fuel up with empty jets.
  7. A vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 testing in monkeys appears to be successful. This is using inactivated SARS-CoV-2 as the vaccine: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1.full.pdf
  8. You are a better man than I. I tried to study the history of Poland and I just can't make out the names much less the language.
  9. I'm sorry I don't. So far only three testing companies have been authorized by the FDA to test and you can find them here: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/serology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations However, the FDA is allowing any company to start testing immediately. You want a test that has specificity and sensitivity above 90%. I don't see these numbers on their website so I could contact them before ordering a test. They should have those numb
  10. I remember LeeWhee passing. I didn't know about Shorty and Beardrech. I'm so sorry. I'd really love to see Madness again! Come on back Madness! Sudaca, Jickiss, Takachi, Goldmember, FrancisoTheMan, Ags Nightmare, seamus, Henry Penny, Charmin, Private Skidmark, phatbubble, machinehead, hypertiger? And I remember your favorite wndysrf LOL
  11. Jorma, there are a few scientists who have postulated in journals that there are two or three strains now that might have different values for R0 or CFR. However, the vast majority of scientists in the field think their papers are of poor quality and lacking evidence. I'm in the latter camp. However, the mutation rate is rapid so I have little doubt we'll have strains popping up in one or two years that have different properties either more or less infectious or fatal. And these strains may also have different antigenic properties. In other words if we design a vaccine now it may not be effect
  12. Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/ Another attempt the vaccine reverted into the live virus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4626112/
  13. This paper describes the renin–angiotensin system and activity of ACE2 in SARS: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7079827/ The role of heme and iron in Lung injury in ARDS: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4796260/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4772369/ https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2019.199.1_MeetingAbstracts.A2079
  14. Here are a couple of papers about ADE: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6290032/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3057165/
  15. The first statement is regarding the cytokine storm I described above. He's talking about the same experiment I was. The virus SARS infects innate immune cells like dendritic cells which in turn over express signal molecules called cytokines. In vaccinated people the secretion of cytokines is too high and it makes the immune system overreact which in turn causes acute respiratory syndrome (ARDS) and lung injury resulting in death. Lung injury itself is a complex topic as in includes the renin–angiotensin system and activity of ACE2 as well and injury by heme groups (which wasn’t fully understo
  16. We have been working on a SARS vaccine since 2002 with limited success. As of 2019 they were making some progress so we can learn from that since SARS-CoV-2 is very similar. But it has been extremely difficult. One the earlier vaccines created antibodies as expected but upon challenge by live virus the inoculated animals died a terrible death due to cytokine storms. Another attempt used live attenuated virus which was successful until it reverted to wild type and cause the infection we were trying to prevent. Now we have a new improved live attenuated virus - please you can try it before me B
  17. I'm hoping most of them show back up when the S&P retests 666.
  18. I certainly hope for your sake and your families sake that you are immune! My wife's sister in Santa Clara County has it and she is stable on oxygen (verified with rtPCR). I believe two of my sisters may have gotten it with their husbands in Northern CO. The symptoms were very similar but luckily they all recovered. My wife and I are trying our best to not get it - we don't even go shopping. Locked in since late January.
  19. We are collecting a lot more serology samples - so that error bars will get narrower over time. But it does appear the cat is out of the bag in the U.S. Santa Clara got infected very early but we also were one of the very first to close down.
  20. First data is out for the Stanford Serology study of Santa Clara county. They found the actual infection rate is 50-85 times greater than the number of confirmed cases. That implies a 2.49%-4.16% infection rate. In rural Telluride area is was 0.5%. In a random sample of pregnant women in NYC it was 15%. So that gives us our first estimate for the range across the US. Given that we have 678K confirmed cases that would put the actual infected range at 34-58 million in the states right now. Still tough to calculate case fatality rate as deaths lag by 17 days on average that we know of.
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