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sandy beach

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Posts posted by sandy beach

  2. Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    From Toronto:

     

    “Anna Wong, real estate agent at Strata.ca in Toronto, says the downturn in the broader real estate market has exposed the risks of betting too heavily on future prices. ‘This market actually teaches people a lesson on preconstruction,’ she says. ‘People, sadly, are being burned by it.’ In one case, the original buyer of a one-bedroom, 648-square-foot unit at 88 Queen Condos paid $810,000 a couple of years ago. The buyer tried to sell the contract in the assignment market for $909,000, then recently dropped the price to $860,000 after 86 days on the market. But Ms. Wong points out that a buyer can purchase a unit of a similar size in the resale market for about $700,000. ‘They push preconstruction out like crazy,’ Ms. Wong says. ‘There’s so much hype. It’s a great investment – only if the market is with you.'”

  3. Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Now that's what I call "shorting:"

     

    “The tallest high-rise in Texas has now been scaled back to 45 stories. Instead of soaring 80 stories — 1,035 feet tall — and having 450 apartment units, Wilson Capital, the Austin-based real estate firm developing the project, now envisions a building with 350 apartment homes in a 45-story tower. ‘Changing market conditions, notably rising construction costs and interest rates, have driven our firm to be very selective about which projects to move forward with and how to go about programming them,’ said Taylor Wilson, president of Wilson Capital. ‘Projects and designs that made sense in 2021-2022 do not necessarily work in the current environment.'”

  4. Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Jimi said:

    Bitcoin supply is designed to be capped at 21 million.

    This finite-supply imposes a scarcity that affords it great intrinsic value that many don't recognize.

    One should be buying bitcoin today because of that.

    Someday, Giant Meteor will slam into the planet, destroying human civilization in its entirety.

    Such eventuality imposes a finite-supply on equities that afford great intrinsic value that many don't recognize.

    One should be buying equities today because of that.

    ROTFLOL

  7. Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Jimi said:

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/57288-Farrelo-Rd-92284/home/3823821#marketing-remarks-scroll

    Price cut today from $695K to... $694K.  LOLOLOL... a thousand bucks to refresh it on the MLS.

    Transacted:

    04/2018 for $273K

    05/2016 for $251K

    10/2012 for $215K

    09/2007 for $317K  <== "NINJA" era.....

    I'm sure this "work-from-home" clown will get over asking....

     

    Not

  8. Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    We're just getting warmed up on CRE defaults:

     

    “Panoramic Development has skidded into loan default for a proposed highrise to contain more than 1,000 homes in West Oakland. The San Francisco-based developer defaulted on a $6.25 million debt for CitySpaces at 500 Kirkham Street, the East Bay Times reported. The development was to include 1,032 apartments and 35,000 square feet of shops and restaurants, offices and a grocery store. Now the property faces loan delinquency, default and possible foreclosure.”

  9. Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    The West Coast COVID-19 diaspora now putting those big price increases into reverse:

    “Reno posted a record high median home sale price of $635,000 in June 2022 for an existing home, almost doubling the median price of $320,000 from January 2017, according to Sierra Nevada Realtors. The Reno median price has since fallen to $555,000 in March this year due to a rebalancing of the market from rising interest rates but remains unaffordable for many households in the city. Sparks reached a record high of $570,000 in May 2022. The median home sale price for Sparks in March this year was $502,500, according to Sierra Nevada Realtors. Las Vegas, meanwhile, reported a median home price of $425,000 in March, according to Las Vegas Realtors. Las Vegas’ median home sale price reached as high as $482,000 in May 2022.”

  10. Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Here we go again:

     

    “After years of leading the nation in home price growth, the Phoenix metro is now dipping into the red. If you drive, you’ll notice ‘for sale’ signs popping up across the Valley, but we know prices just aren’t as high as they used to be. It has now joined seven other metros across the country in the same boat including Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle. ‘The main reason why home prices are going down is because homes are staying on the market for longer, so that’s why sellers are lowering their prices to get people to buy,’ said Luis Cordova with Rounds Consulting Group.”

  15. Baking Soda Is All 4/26/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    15 hours ago, Jimi said:

    If it's potfarms to the north of me, it's now VRBOs to my beloved desert-south. I think both were symptomatic of loose money & circumstance.  

    Let me provide a recent example for the latter. Look at this listing:

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/3353-Sage-Ave-92284/home/3825815

    The price history here is instructive.

    Asking: $749K

    Prior Transactions:

    12/2020 = $525K

    01/2015 = $274K

    08/2003 = $56K

    04/2000 = $33.5K

    I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly. Consider that seller wants $225K for the privilege of a 28-month holding period. The pitch is that it's a great VRBO... but you better be careful with modeling that forward, since it benefitted from an extended period of work-from-home alternatives (within 2-hour drive of downtown LA/10 million inhabitants) and the GMTFO-COVID cooped-up period when travel-by-car was easier, and travel abroad unavailable.

    Meanwhile, anyone want to doubt that the 12/2020 purchase was done with something other than a floating rate, to keep that part of the cost-structure down? And that it has subsequently turned on them? Because I ask myself, "If I had such a successful, professionally-managed cash-flow positive VRBO, why would I be looking to unload it?"

    Because they don't: the VRBO empires were built on cheap financing and unusual circumstances, both tied to the pandemic. And it's getting unwound.

    I'll post more of these in the days/weeks ahead.

     

    Wow! 

  16. Baking Soda Is All 4/26/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Record High Manhattan Apartment Rents May Not Save Blackstone From Default

     

    ‘There is $37 billion worth of securitized multifamily loans set to expire in the next two years where rental income either isn’t enough to cover debt payments, or covers it with less cushion than is considered standard, according to real-estate data firm Trepp LLC. For comparison, that is more than twice the amount of at-risk loans in the office sector’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/record-high-manhattan-apartment-rents-may-not-save-blackstone-from-default/ar-AA1ajHxh?ocid=entnewsntp

  21. Ohmagawd, Is This Pattern Bullish 4/21/23

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    On 4/22/2023 at 11:07 AM, fxfox said:

    My bet is on a major European Insurer goes bust as the „Lehman Event“. We had negative interest rates for years in Europe. They were forced to go into Real Estate and Private Equity, fields where they have no experience with. This lead to classic misallocation of capital. Can‘t end well.

    I know that bears run a bit if time here and that technicals are not very much in favour of bears, but I can‘t go long here for the long term here. Something is looming. It could be that British Pension fund thing was Bear Stearns and that SVB was Lehman. But I have my doubts. As long that is the case I won‘t go long for the kong term. Gimme the EMA 200 monthly and I will go long without any questions, otherwise not.

    My reaction is this could play out over a longer period of time than many expect. The Fed is going to be tighter for longer and QT could go one for two more years. 2024-2025 could be the demise of much of the mezzanine ponzi finance and ZIRP and the Fed put. The insurers that sponsor the mezzanines are going to get hit hard by the FSOC and the Fed / Treasury are not going to bail them out this time. I totally agree with your take. ZIRP and the Fed put caused a massive mispricing of assets and misallocation of capital. Financing debt is going to go back into well regulated banks. Insurers are going to be declared systematically important and they will no longer be able to sponsor the mezzanine and will be better stress tested. We're going back to old school lending. The Fed's footprint in treasuries and MBS is going to decline and banks are going to have to make the market again. That is if we don't blow it all up first. Lots of room for mistakes. But no problem if the market is bullish in the meantime. It just gives more cover for the Fed to keep squeezing.

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