sandy beach

Well it is end of month Monday after all - son of a bitch. The percentage of small business failure the next couple of months will be unreal.

I think Spanish Flu infections in the Northern Hemisphere reduced significantly at the end of July of the first year. It then mutated in the fall and by November broke out again. It was the second year that killed the bulk of people in the Northern Hemisphere. It lasted for three years total with the third year death rates equaled the first. So you can imagine in in stock chart terminology as a head and shoulders pattern.

Futures open down.

To test and mass produce a vaccine that is safe will be at least 12-18 months and "at least" is doing a lot of work in the sentence. It could take much longer. Small batches could possibly be read in only six months for first responders if needed if an early phase 3 trial is a success. Right now we have 17 drugs already approved by the FDA that were tested a kidney cell lines infected with SARS-COV-2 that have be proven effective in doses that are not cytotoxic. But properly full clinical trial results (in humans) will probably not come out for a couple of months. But we will get results from small trials and large trails which are no double blind, etc. So the quality of the data will improve as time goes on. None of these drugs will stop you from getting infected but they may save your life if you have a severe case or help prevent permanent organ damage.

Welcome home! And praying for you as well - some of us still keep the faith. The beauty of this universe is something I marvel at every day.

Son of a bitch - it eats your crown jewels too! Effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection upon male gonadal function: A single center-based study Posted March 24, 2020 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.21.20037267v1

BMJ: Vitamin D deficiency contributes directly to the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) https://thorax.bmj.com/content/70/7/617

Boris Johnson

I think I'm going to be sick.

Sorry for not participating today - I'm currently in a state of denial about the scale of fiscal and monitory stimulus. As dangerous as COVID-19 is I have this feeling in my gut that what we just did to America's future is far more ominous. I simply can't believe that rational human beings traded the beacon of light that is America to prop up the stock market wealth and power of the oligarchs. What type of fascism this will spiral into I can not see. But I do see a dark and foreboding night descending upon us. And I see myself imaging a time of light long since extinguished and wishing I could return there.

Wow Jimi I had no idea how personal this was to your family. I'm so sorry. You must be very shaken by this experience. I know that I would be - and I know that I am! It does sound like you may have had it. If that is the case at least you may be blessed with immunity for a couple of years. If they start testing here I hope you test. I am so glad you all survived this.

I had no idea. So how are you and the kids now? And I agree - this has been in the US long enough to start doing serology testing for Ab.. You can't do that at the beginning because it takes say 6-10 days to get an immune response really going. But this has been in CA, WA and NY long enough for some serious research.

Until we get that data I'm going to be looking at ICU saturation in the US and excess dead bodies that can't be handled. And I'm going to be looking closely to see if the curve in bending down here. Right now I see Italy is really starting to bend down and I like that very much. In the US there are so many artifacts in the data because we are basically testing de novo a population already infected in say NYC that I can't make anything out of it. So I need to slow down and wait for that data.

What I can say Jimi is UK studies in serology i.e. actually testing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are being done now and we should have those results in "days" they claim. That will give us precise data on case fatality rates that we desperately need and a view of the actual spread in the population. I'm evidenced based in my ideas so I really am willing to wait "days" to get that data because I don't trust the data from Wuhan.

Jimi I am blind until we do serology tests like they are finally doing in the UK. So I can't answer that yet. I'm not talking rtDNA tests. I want to see a random sample of California testing for antibodies against this beast. Than I can say for sure. Sorry I can't answer that yet. Stay safe!